MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Tuesday, July 7
The good times kept rolling last night when the Nationals' Curtis Mead went nuclear while going 3-for-5 and notching a double and a dinger, with the latter cashing a tidy +468 payout for us. Now we're looking to another sizzling masher to keep the funds streaming in as part of my home run predictions today.
It'll be Freddie Freeman leading off for us, partly because missing an opportunity to ride with a Dodgers slugger against the Colorado Rockies' league-worst staff can make you very sad.
And because Freeman is facing a hurler in Michael Lorenzen who regularly serves up juicy meatballs.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds July 7
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman home run (+363 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.75u | Has put up a 1.103 OPS over the past two weeks. |
| Trea Turner home run (+424 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.85u | Coming alive, and recently hit a homer in three straight games. |
| Colson Montgomery home run (+331 via DraftKings) | 0.20u β 0.66u | Gets a golden opportunity to keep launching sinkers. |
Total wagered: 0.60 units | Max profit: 2.26 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Freddie Freeman (+363)
Freeman is a few months away from turning 37, and the power pedal remains to the floor.
His expected slugging percentage of .511 sits in the 91st percentile leaguewide. That's contributed to his 15 homers, and the first baseman has been soaring especially high recently, slashing .400/.482/.620 across the past two weeks.
So he'll really enjoy taking hacks against the Rockies and their struggling starter Michael Lorenzen (6.91 ERA). Lorenzen is getting regularly pummeled, with a hard-hit rate allowed of 46.5% that rests in the bottom 7% MLB-wide.
- Time: 10:10 p.m.ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Fastball feeding frenzy
Lorenzen throws his fastball more to lefties like Freeman while leaning on it 23% of the time. That's not going to end well for him against a power hitter who's slugging .635 against four-seamers.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Trea Turner (+424)
Trea Turner will be taking his swings tonight at Great American Ball Park, a notorious homer haven for years. It's the fifth-most homer-friendly venue this season, according to Statcast's Ballpark factors. Which means we get to align an ideal setting with another rising hitter.
Turner was struggling earlier this season. But we could be witnessing the early stages of his turnaround, as his OPS has climbed to .963 over the past week.
And now he faces a lefty in Andrew Abbott, whose expected ERA of 4.87 is notably higher than his actual mark of 3.88. He also throws his fastball a whopping 47% of the time to righties, and Turner is posting a .326 batting average and .500 slugging percentage against that pitch, with a 54.3% hard-hit rate.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🤑 More MLB player props for Tuesday
Dive into Dustin Saracini's best NRFI bets today if you're looking to cash in more early in the week, and Mike Spector's Brewers vs. Cardinals prediction.
Home run pick: Colson Montgomery (+331)
Colson Montgomery is still surging amid a second-year breakout. He sits ninth MLB-wide after crushing 23 homers, already surpassing his rookie-season total of 21.
He's doing that through a combination of brute force and precision, with a barrel rate of 14.7% that sits in the 89th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. And as is common with the classic modern-day slugger, he'll happily trade strikeouts for pull power, and that shows with a towering air pull rate of 28.3%.
Now he'll face the also impressive Payton Tolle of the Red Sox, but the left-handed hitter is producing quality reverse splits. Montgomery is posting a .923 OPS against lefties as opposed to a .750 against righties. He's also nailing sinkers to the tune of a 64.5% hard-hit rate, an offering Tolle throws 33% of the time to lefties.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
π Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Freddie Freeman home run (+363)
- Trea Turner home run (+424)
- Colson Montgomery home run (+331)
Best odds: +10365 via DraftKings (0.02u -> 2.1u)
π΅ My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including parlays, have been tracked since March 27.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 56-151-2 | +0.61 units β | +0.8% β |
| Home run picks | 32-101-0 | +1.55 units β | 0.05% β |
| HR Parlays | 1-36 | +0.70 units β | +1.05% β |
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