Argentina vs. Egypt Prediction: Best World Cup Picks at Kalshi (July 7)
Argentina and Egypt will lock horns at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia, on Tuesday for a chance to play in the 2026 World Cup quarterfinals. Although the defending champions survived a scare in the last round, my Argentina vs. Egypt prediction calls for a much smoother Round of 16 clash.
Argentina comes into this encounter with a 72% win probability on prediction market apps, compared to Egypt's 10%. As part of our World Cup best bets, I also back Argentina to cover the -1.5 spread against Egypt. The match kicks off at noon ET on FOX, Telemundo, and FOX One.
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⚽ Argentina vs. Egypt predictions: Pick to win & player prop picks
See all of our experts' soccer picks for World Cup 2026.
| 💰 Best picks | 📊 Yes/no price | ⚖️ Volume (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina to advance | 85 cents | 1.5u -> 0.27u |
| Argentina -1.5 | 44 cents | 1u -> 1.27u |
| Yes: Over 2.5 goals | 48 cents | 1.25u -> 1.5u |
📈 Who will win Argentina vs. Egypt?
Prediction market via Kalshi. You can use our Kalshi promo code for a $10 bonus by signing up today. Market subject to change.
Argentina was on the brink of disaster in the Round of 32, but prevailed to beat World Cup debutant Cape Verde 3-2 in extra time. Although the match exposed weaknesses in the 2022 World Cup winner's defense, it also served as a wake-up call for an Argentina team that had strolled through the World Cup until that point.
While Egypt represents a tougher challenge on paper, we're not expecting another nail-biter. Argentina will be motivated to flex its attacking power against an Egypt side that hasn't kept a clean sheet yet at the 2026 World Cup.
Egypt has done well to make it to the Round of 16 after a mixed bag of results in the group stage, but the team's penalty shootout with Australia was a draining experience that could have lingering effects against Argentina.
Score prediction: Argentina 3, Egypt 1
💵 My best pick: Yes Argentina -1.5 (44 cents)
After narrowly beating Cape Verde in one of the best games of the 2026 World Cup, we expect Argentina to return to its dominating ways and cover the -1.5 spread against Egypt.
Before the Round of 32 reality check, Argentina had beaten each opponent at the 2026 World Cup by two goals or more. At 44 cents, there's decent value in backing Argentina to win Tuesday's game by two goals, considering that Lionel Messi and Lautaro Martinez are unlikely to be contained by a defense that's looked shaky thus far.
🦶 Who will score in Argentina vs. Egypt?
Follow all of our expert soccer analysis for World Cup 2026.
Lionel Messi, F, Argentina (63%)
Lionel Messi is going to stop scoring one of these days. But until he does, we're going to keep striking while the iron is hot. At 39, Messi is playing at a level few would've imagined heading into the 2026 World Cup, scoring more than half of Argentina's goals to cement his place in the Golden Boot race with seven goals in four games.
He's among the favorites to find the back of the net against Egypt, with Kalshi giving the Inter Miami star a 63% probability of scoring. With Egypt set to sit deep and absorb pressure, there will be opportunities for Messi to extend his lead as the World Cup's all-time leading scorer.
Best Argentina vs. Egypt goal-scorer pick: Lionel Messi (63%)
🥅 Will both teams score in Argentina vs. Egypt?
While we expect Argentina to tighten up at the back, recent trends suggest that Tuesday's game won't be a straightforward win for the three-time World Cup winner. Egypt isn't going to go all out in attack, but the squad has enough talent up front to make things interesting.
Egypt is always going to be a threat to score with Mohamed Salah in the fold. Along with being one of the most lethal finishers in the sport, Salah's partnership with Omar Marmoush is going to cause problems for Argentina's back line.
Both teams to score (BTTS) pick: Yes (16 cents)
💡 How to trade on both teams to score (BTTS)
Our soccer expert Jeremy Vernon broke down how to handicap BTTS at the World Cup with a full history and statistical analysis of the popular prop market across more than 7,000 matches.
📺 How to watch Argentina vs. Egypt
- Date: Tuesday, July 7
- Kickoff: noon ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
- TV: FOX, Telemundo, FOX One
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