Manchester City vs. PSG Prediction, Picks & Odds for Wednesday's Champions League Match
My Manchester City vs. PSG prediction breaks down a Champions League clash between two of England's top clubs, but two that (for vastly different reasons) have had interesting starts to their season.
City stayed perfect in Premier League action with a 3-0 win over 10-men Liverpool in their first action since being found guilty of financial charges dating back over a decade. PSG doesn't have that type of drama surrounding the start of their season, but an uneven start has them sitting sixth in early Ligue 1 play. Recent results for the European holders have been promising, with four straight wins dating back to Matchday 1.
Manchester City is a +100 betting favorite on the three-way moneyline ahead of kickoff from the Etihad in Manchester at 3 p.m. ET (Paramount+).
Manchester City vs. PSG predictions & best bets
See our experts' soccer picks.
| Best bets | Best odds | Wager (units) |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City Under 5.5 shots on target | -120 via bet365 | 0.75 units to profit 0.63 units |
| PSG Over 12.5 shots | -150 via bet365 | 0.5 units to profit 0.33 units |
| PSG Over 16.5 shots | +250 via bet365 | 0.25 units to profit 0.63 units |
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Manchester City vs. PSG best bet
Check out all of our soccer betting analysis and expert predictions this season.
Manchester City Under 5.5 shots on target (-120)
Six wins from six games in the Prem might have people think that City's attack is more overwhelming than the underlying numbers suggest.
For starters, City isn't averaging six shots on target in league play, and much of that has come against competition nowhere near PSG's level. They managed just 4 SOT against a Liverpool side on the weekend, when they faced only 10 men for the final thirty minutes.
PSG's projected midfield of Vitinha, Joao Neves, and Fabian Ruiz will crowd the spaces Rayan Cherki and Phil Foden want to work in, forcing more play out wide. Hakimi will have his hands full with Doku, but beating the full-back doesn't necessarily mean it will be a clean attempt on goal.
🆚 Who will win Manchester City vs. PSG?
This game looks like it should present us with an incredible midfield battle. City, at home, will likely have a slight possession edge, albeit controlled. I'm banking on the visitors to generate more shots, and while both sides should get scoring opportunities, many of the attacks won't be as clean as the repeated attacking might suggest.
Score prediction: Manchester City 1, Paris Saint-Germain 1
More Manchester City vs. PSG expert picks
PSG Over 12.5 shots (-150) & Over 16.5 shots (+250)
PSG doesn't need to come anywhere near the Ligue 1-leading 21.33 shots per game to cash the lower leg of this mini-ladder, reaching at least 15 shots in each of their six domestic matches. Even removing the 31 shot performance against Marseille (which we don't anticipate a repeat of on Wednesday), that number only drops to 19.4. There's considerable room for expected reduction against City.
The midfield trio of Vitinha, Neves, and Ruiz can move City's midfield screen from side to side before releasing Khvicha Kvaratskhelia on the left or Ousmane Dembele on the opposite flank. With Hakimi supplying a dangerous overlap behind Dembele, both sides present a sizable danger.
There are several routes to PSG hitting these lies, with cutbacks, shots after recycled possession, and efforts from distance outside the box.
The upper tail of my projects here, Over 16.5 (+250), is getting a lot of work done by the price. It's worth a quarter-unit speculative play to boost the profit considerably, but even the base level here provides a small profit even if we don't reach the tail.
Manchester City vs. PSG key stats
| Manchester City | Paris Saint-Germain | |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Champions League league phase) | 1-0-0 | 1-0-0 |
| Recent form (all comps) | WWWWWW | DLWWWW |
| Goals for (UCL) | 2 | 6 |
| xG (UCL) | 2.32 | 4.57 |
| Goals against (UCL) | 0 | 1 |
| xGA (UCL) | 0.28 | 0.76 |
| Average possession | 64.3% | 72.1% |
Manchester City vs. PSG odds
Manchester City vs. PSG projected lineups
Here are the projected lineups for Manchester City vs. PSG; subject to change:
| Man City (4-2-3-1) | PSG (4-3-3) |
|---|---|
| Donnarumma (GK) | Safonov (GK) |
| Nunes (D) | Hakimi (D) |
| Guehi (D) | Marquinhos (D) |
| Dias (D) | Pacho (D) |
| Gvardiol (D) | Mendes (D) |
| Anderson (M) | Neves (M) |
| Fernandez (M) | Vitinha (M) |
| Foden (M) | Ruiz (M) |
| Cherki (M) | Dembele (F) |
| Doku (M) | Ferran (F) |
| Haaland (F) | Kvaratskhelia (F) |
How to watch Manchester City vs. PSG
- Date: Wednesday, Oct. 14
- Kickoff: 3 p.m. ET
- Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
- TV/Streaming: Paramount+
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