Brewers vs. Cardinals Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Tuesday, July 7

Milwaukee Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski looks to add to his case to start next week’s All-Star Game and keep a stranglehold on the NL Cy Young Award race with the team as a -190 betting favorite when he takes the mound against the St. Louis Cardinals. My Brewers vs. Cardinals prediction backs a low-scoring affair in this first game of the doubleheader, spurred by a long outing from Misiorowski. St. Louis has not yet announced its starting pitching plans as of this writing.

I also take a flier on Jake Bauers to homer with the last of my MLB picks to get Milwaukee’s offense going. First pitch is set for 2:15 p.m. ET (ESPN Unlimited).

⚾ Brewers vs. Cardinals picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

Total wagered: 2.25 units | Max profit: 4.45 units

🏆 Who will win Brewers vs. Cardinals?

Milwaukee has now won five straight games against St. Louis after yesterday's comeback victory, and Misiorowski is the team’s best arm who should lead the Brewers to a sixth straight win in this Divisional rivalry.

Score prediction: Brewers 4, Cardinals 2

💰 Brewers vs. Cardinals prediction & best bet

Under 8 (-125)

When Milwaukee had won four straight games against St. Louis prior to this series, it was on the heels of dominant pitching. In that span, the Brewers pitched to a 1.00 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 36 innings, and held the Cardinals to a .167 opponent’s average.

Misiorowski had his second-highest strikeout total of the season (12) in his first start against St. Louis this year. And prior to being let down by his defense in his last start, opponents didn’t top three runs in any of his previous 10 outings (they scored one or fewer runs six times).

🔥 Best Brewers vs. Cardinals player prop bet

Jacob Misiorowski Over 18.5 outs (+165)

With this being the first game of a doubleheader and the Brewers really only relying on three trustworthy relievers (Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby, and closer Trevor Megill), I expect Misiorowski to turn in a long outing.

The righty threw 96 pitches over seven innings in his last start against the Cardinals, which were his third-most since the calendar turned to May. And perhaps just as encouraging as his 12 strikeouts were in that game, he induced at least three more ground ball outs than fly ball outs (seven to four) for the third time all season. 

Misiorowski was untouchable in that start, inducing a 46% whiff rate on his fastball (40% overall) and getting a called strike or whiff on 44% of his pitches. He leads the Majors in Stuff+ (126) while the league average is 100, and there’s no reason to believe he will be roughed up today.

💣 Brewers vs. Cardinals home run prediction

Jake Bauers to hit a home run (+800)

While nothing has been officially announced yet, Jake Bauers should either face Michael McGreevy or Hunter Dobbins in the first game of the doubleheader. If it's McGreevy, Bauers is 2-for-2 with a home run against him, and the righty's 5.70 xERA compared to his actual 3.12 ERA suggests regression is looming, especially after his 40.6% hard-hit and 10.1% barrel rates allowed.

Bauers has had success against all Cardinals pitching this season, slashing .400/.500/.667 in 15 at-bats this year. He ranks in the top 40 in home runs hit (16) after increasing his total in each of the last three months. He has homered at least once in three of the last four series, and has a great chance to add to that streak today.

🚀 Brewers vs. Cardinals same-game parlay

If the Under is to cash, it will likely come on the heels of a dominant and long outing from Misiorowski. The righty's ERA and OBA are better on the road than at home, and he has dominated NL Central competition. To give this SGP a better chance of cashing, I am swapping Bauers' home run wager for him to record a hit, of which he has five in the last four games.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Brewers vs. Cardinals: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I typically draw the line for backing MLB moneyline favorites at -160 odds before I look elsewhere into totals or runline wagers. With Milwaukee's shortest moneyline odds at -184 at FanDuel (carrying a 64.79% implied probability), I switched to the O/U for better value.

From a home run odds perspective, I was always going to look to a Brewers slugger, as Misiorowski has the fourth-lowest HR/9 rate (0.61) among qualified starters. Bettors should be clear on if McGreevy or Dobbins is making the start before placing their wagers.

📊 Live Brewers vs. Cardinals odds

The best MLB betting sites have a small six-cent gap between Milwaukee's shortest -184 moneyline odds at FanDuel and the -190 odds at the high end of the market at BetMGM, Caesars, and bet365. Surprisingly, 61% of the early wagers have backed the underdog before their starting pitching plans were even announced. 

The total is currently at 8 only at bet365, with the rest of the market at 7.5. BetMGM, Caesars, and DraftKings all spent time at an O/U of 8 overnight before returning back to their original number. But with the early wagers 2/1 in favor of the Over, it wouldn't be shocking to see more of the best sports betting sites align with bet365 at 8 or higher before first pitch.

📈 Brewers vs. Cardinals betting trends

🚑 Brewers vs. Cardinals injuries

📺 How to watch Brewers vs. Cardinals

• Date: Tuesday, July 7
• First pitch: 2:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Busch Stadium (St. Louis)
• TV: ESPN Unlimited
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Brewers starter: Jacob Misiorowski (9-4, 1.47 ERA)
• Cardinals starter: Undecided