MLB Player Props & Best Bets Today: Going Contrarian on Verlander-Scherzer Matchup?
Six games in the afternoon window means Major League Baseball bettors have plenty of opportunity to make money early with a loaded slate of games on Wednesday. Read on for our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.
Did the Houston Astros just have their defining moment in the AL West race? Jose Altuve’s three home runs in the first three innings propelled the Astros to a dominating 14-1 victory over the Texas Rangers, while the Seattle Mariners blew a three-run eighth-inning lead as the Cincinnati Reds earned their 10th walk-off win of the season.
The Astros are now a game clear and in sole possession of first place in the division for the first time this season, and they look to continue to widen the gap down the stretch.
Here are our top MLB prop picks and best bets for Wednesday (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
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Wednesday’s MLB schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-180) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+150)
- Minnesota Twins (-125) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+105)
- San Francisco Giants (+120) vs. Chicago Cubs (-142)
- Toronto Blue Jays (-175) vs. Oakland Athletics (+145)
- Colorado Rockies (+180) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-218)
- Philadelphia Phillies (-118) vs. San Diego Padres (-102)
- Seattle Mariners (-162) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+136)
- Boston Red Sox (+130) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (-155)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-155) vs. Miami Marlins (+130)
- Detroit Tigers (+142) vs. New York Yankees (-170)
- New York Mets (-125) vs. Washington Nationals (+105)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+240) vs. Atlanta Braves (-298)
- Chicago White Sox (+100) vs. Kansas City Royals (-120)
- Houston Astros (-102) vs. Texas Rangers (-118)
- Baltimore Orioles (-130) vs. Los Angeles Angels (+110)
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Wednesday’s MLB best bets
- Player prop: Freddy Peralta to record a win (+135 via bet365) vs. Pirates ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Justin Turner Under 0.5 hits (+145 via DraftKings) vs. Rays ⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop: Zach Davies Under 2.5 earned runs (-170 via bet365) vs. Rockies ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Total: Astros-Rangers Over 8.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
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Wednesday’s MLB prop picks
Player prop: Freddy Peralta to record win vs. Pirates (+135 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Milwaukee Brewers righty Freddy Peralta earned NL Pitcher of the Month honors for August after winning all five starts, pitching to a 2.10 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and recording 46 strikeouts. Peralta’s five-start winning streak was halted on Sept. 1, but to no fault of his own, as he limited the red-hot Philadelphia Phillies to two hits and one earned run over six innings while striking out 10-plus batters for the third time in the last five starts.
The Brewers are massive favorites over a Pittsburgh Pirates team that is 6-4 in their last 10 games, one game behind the best record in the NL in that span. However, they still rank 22nd in BABIP (.283) and 24th in slugging (.393) over the last 14 days, so they should not have enough offense to compete with a pitcher who ranks in the top three in nearly every statistical category since the All-Star break (strikeouts, ERA, FIP, K/9, K-BB%, OBA, WHIP, WPA, WAR).
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bet365 has slightly better odds for this wager than Caesars and DraftKings, who offer +123 and +130 odds, respectively.
Player prop: Justin Turner Under 0.5 hits vs. Rays (+145 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
More will be asked of Boston Red Sox designated hitter Justin Turner at the top of the order with Alex Verdugo day-to-day with a hamstring injury. However, Turner entered Tuesday slashing a disappointing .143/.269/.143 over the previous seven days and has gone eight straight days without an extra-base hit.
Turner is 0-for-6 in his career against Tampa Bay Rays right Tyler Glasnow, and the ace ranks in the top four in the majors in FIP (2.49) while pitching to the lowest ERA (2.42) of any AL pitcher since the All-Star break.
This is a three-star play, as Stuff+ has Glasnow as the ninth-best pitcher in the second half, and he also has above-average ratings in Location+ and Pitching+.
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Caesars is the only other one of our best sports betting apps offering an O/U for the number of hits (Turner’s Under has +139 odds), so be sure to check back at shops like bet365, which should have competitive prices closer to first pitch.
Player prop: Zach Davies Under 2.5 earned runs vs. Padres (-170 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Arizona Diamondbacks have reshuffled the back end of their rotation over the last couple of weeks to generate some consistency behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Zach Davies has shown some glimpses of hope as a consistent third starter, allowing just two earned runs over his last 11 innings and recording six strikeouts in three of his previous five starts.
The Colorado Rockies rank 28th or worse in wRC+, OPS, BB/K, and wOBA against right-handed pitchers in road games this year.
This is a four-star play, as the Rockies have been held to four or fewer runs in 11 of their last 12 road games, while Davies’ 4.90 xERA compared to his actual 6.45 ERA suggests positive regression is looming.
The -170 odds at bet365 do not look as steep when compared to the -183 found at Caesars.
Wednesday’s MLB game picks
Total: Astros-Rangers Over 8.5 (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
This mouth-watering starting pitching matchup between former teammates and future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer will surely have many backing the Under. However, we are not taking the bait, especially since the Over has cashed in five of the last six meetings between these teams, beating the projected total by an average of 9.5 runs in that span.
Scherzer had an injury scare in his last start, leaving after 88 pitches with forearm tightness. Scherzer admitted that the tightness led to his location being off, and if he is impacted the same way Wednesday, an Astros lineup that has averaged an MLB-best 8.6 runs per game over the last 10 games should take full advantage.
Along with Houston’s league-leading .344 batting average and 1.017 OPS since Aug. 26, its bullpen ranks just outside the bottom 10 in xFIP (4.68), which is an issue when backing up Verlander, who has recorded just 15 outs in two of his last four starts. In addition, Verlander’s hard-hit percentage is on pace to be above 40% for just the second time since 2015, while Texas’ 36.7% hard contact rate is second in MLB.
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With several of our best sports betting sites opening at a total of 9.0, we are headed to FanDuel to take advantage of the lower number, especially since it is the only shop charging less than the standard -115 juice.
MLB best bets made 9/6/2023 at 6:32 a.m. ET.
MLB betting odds pages
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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