MLB Player Props Today: MLB Expert Picks, Predictions & Best Bets for Friday

My best MLB player props today explore the best ways to attack two very different series in Friday's LCS doubleheader.

The Los Angeles Dodgers can shorten their World Series odds by completing a four-game sweep today. However, my MLB picks project that one of their top sluggers will underperform. I include three other plus-money plays, a mix of my best batter and pitcher props.

⚾ Best MLB player props today

MLB player props for Friday; MLB odds subject to change.

• Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 total bases (-127 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 runs (+125 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+160 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
• Kevin Gausman Under 1.5 earned runs (+120 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

💰 Best MLB player prop bets for Oct. 17

Our MLB player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area.

⬇️ Shohei Ohtani Under 1.5 total bases (-127) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There is growing speculation that Shohei Ohtani’s hitting slump is associated with his return to the mound and him becoming a two-way player once again. 

Ohtani entered Game 3 with just two hits in his last 25 at-bats and 12 strikeouts since the wild-card round. But with him toeing the rubber tonight, there is more concern that it will directly impact his batting.

Ohtani slashed .282/.392/.622 with 55 home runs in the regular season. But on the 14 days he pitched, those slash line numbers dipped to .222/.323/.556. Our Shane Jackson targeted Ohtani Under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs instead in his Brewers vs. Dodgers player props.

There is a big difference between the -127 odds at Caesars and the -140 price (which carries a 58.33% implied probability) at BetMGM. That’s why I’m headed to Caesars to lay down my $10 wager on this Under in the hopes of netting $7.87 in profits.

⬆️ Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 runs (+125) ⭐⭐⭐

Milwaukee entered Game 3 having lost three of its last four games, while batting .154 as a team and averaging 1.8 runs per game in that span. But its offensive success all season has me believing it can turn things on and positively regress, starting tonight.

The Brewers ranked second among NL teams in runs per game (5.0) and did so while ranking sixth or worse in slugging and home runs. Milwaukee was a team all season that put the ball in play, and its second-ranked batting average (.258) was the catalyst for its offensive success, just like when it batted .306 with runners in scoring position in the NLDS.

Right-handed batters have a better chance of success against Ohtani tonight, as he has allowed a .265/.295/.398 slash line in that split as opposed to a .179/.217/.205 slash line against lefties. I also have Chourio hitting a long ball in my best home run predictions today.

If Chourio scores at least one run for the fourth time in nine postseason games, my $10 wager through BetMGM’s +125 odds at a 44.44% implied probability would return $12.50 in profits.

⬆️ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+160) ⭐⭐⭐

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has five home runs and 11 RBIs this postseason. After starting the series 0-for-7, he woke up in Game 3 with his third game of three-plus hits and a home run in this postseason. He followed that up with another solo blast and multi-hit game yesterday.

His five home runs are the most in a single postseason in franchise history. He is also just the seventh Blue Jays player to record at least 10 RBIs in a single postseason.

Guerrero entered Game 4 with a 1.479 OPS, the seventh-highest in a single postseason among those with a minimum of 30 plate appearances. While he went 0-for-4 in Game 1 against Bryce Miller and Co., I expect regression from the righty hurler, as he had pitched fewer than six innings in 18 of his 19 starts before Game 1 this season.

Guerrero’s odds are at +155 on the low end of the market, which carry a 39.22% implied probability. I am squeezing out the most value on this play through Caesars’ +160 odds, which would net $16 in profits on a winning $10 wager if the slugger records at least one RBI for the seventh time in nine postseason games tonight. Our Josh Goldberg took a different approach, backing Guerrero Over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs in his best Blue Jays vs. Mariners player props.

⬇️ Kevin Gausman Under 1.5 earned runs (+120) ⭐⭐⭐

In a home start in Game 1, Blue Jays righty Kevin Gausman allowed his first home run in 41 2/3 innings pitched. That home run to Cal Raleigh improved the catcher’s numbers to 8-for-17 with four home runs and a 6/2 K/BB ratio against the righty. But I expect Gausman to pitch much more carefully to Raleigh while continuing to limit the rest of the Mariners lineup.

Gausman has allowed just two runs over 11 innings this postseason, spanning two starts. That hot streak followed a stretch where he allowed 14 runs over 25 2/3 innings in his previous eight postseason games (4.91 ERA). But these odds have great value since Gausman has been great for quite some time, entering the postseason with the sixth-best ERA (2.73) after the All-Star break.

If Gausman finishes with one or fewer earned runs, my $10 winning wager through Caesars’ +120 odds at a 45.45% implied probability would return $12 in profits.

💡 MLB expert picks today

• MLB home run predictions today
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• Brewers vs. Dodgers player props