Wednesday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Will Imanaga Continue His Dominance?
There's no time to waste with Wednesday's MLB action getting started in the afternoon, so let's dive right into our MLB player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.
Wednesday's MLB schedule kicks off at 12:40 p.m. ET with the first game of a doubleheader between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Detroit Tigers.
Fans in Detroit will witness two of the best pitching matchups in recent memory. In the first game, MLB Rookie of the Year odds contender Jared Jones takes on MLB Cy Young Odds favorite Tarik Skubal. In the second game, Pirates phenom Paul Skenes will face a rejuvenated Jack Flaherty, who quietly leads all qualified pitchers in xFIP.
That's followed by an AL East battle between the Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles at 6:35 p.m. ET.
To wrap up the day, the New York Yankees, the AL favorites according to World Series odds, continue their West Coast road trip with a game against the Los Angeles Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Wednesday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday’s MLB expert picks
- Joey Estes Under 4.5 strikeouts (-104 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Shota Imanaga Under 6.5 strikeouts (+115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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MLB player props
Joey Estes Under 4.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 4.5 (-115) | Under 4.5 (-111) | Under 4.5 (-111) | Under 4.5 (-123) | Under 4.5 (-120) |
Game info: Athletics vs. Rays | Moneyline: Rays (-180 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-125)/Under 7.5 (+105) via Betway | Start time: 6:50 p.m. ET
Oakland Athletics right-hander Joey Estes' peripherals are fairly decent, as he owns a 3.58 xERA and 3.64 FIP vs. an ugly 7.47 ERA. But he's still a bad pitcher, and his rest-of-season projections reflect that reality. Estes has managed 8.62 strikeouts per nine innings across three starts following a six-punchout effort against the lowly Colorado Rockies.
The Tampa Bay Rays, his opponent on Wednesday, have been very strange in 2024. A usually disciplined team is striking out a ton with June approaching, as the Rays have produced the league's seventh-worst K rate.
So which side do you take when a bad pitcher faces a team whiffing at everything in sight?
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Well, we're backing the Rays on Wednesday based on our projections. Estes is projected to record only 3.93 punchouts against Tampa Bay, and we're getting roughly 26% positive expected value on this bet through these -104 odds.
Comparatively, our other best sports betting sites are all shorter than -110, but those odds are still playable. Meanwhile, Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, prices its Under at -144 after opening at -114.
Best odds: -104 via BetRivers
Shota Imanaga Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 6.5 (+115) | Under 6.5 (-104) | Under 6.5 (+110) | Under 6.5 (-111) | Under 6.5 (-105) |
Game info: Cubs vs. Brewers | Moneyline: Cubs (-130 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-120)/Under 7.5 (+100) via Betway | Start time: 7:40 p.m. ET
Chicago Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga has been truly ridiculous in 2024. He owns an eye-popping 0.84 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. However, regression is looming, so it becomes a game of timing that appropriately.
Will that day be Wednesday against a Milwaukee Brewers team that Cubs starters Justin Steele and Ben Brown have utterly dominated over the last two games?
Well, if you're someone who believes everything evens out eventually, then the answer is yes.
The Brewers certainly aren't this bad. Sure, they own the league's ninth-highest strikeout rate, but the club also features the fourth-best wRC+.
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For Imanaga's part, we're not saying he's going to endure a bad start just because his strikeout Under is the play here. He could easily go seven strong while striking out six. He's projected to record 5.83 punchouts on Wednesday, so that outcome is certainly possible based on the data.
When we run that projection against these +115 odds, we're getting 35% +EV on this bet. For its part, Pinnacle opened at +101 and the Under is now at -133.
Best odds: +115 via DraftKings
MLB player props made Wednesday at 8 a.m. ET.
Here are our best MLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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