Astros vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds & Player Props 8-25

The Houston Astros look to split their four-game series with the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday Night Baseball after blowing two late leads in back-to-back contests.

The Orioles have won two straight against the Astros after being shut out 6-0 in the first game of the series. Both victories came in dramatic fashion, as they faced a multi-run deficit in each game entering the bottom of the sixth inning or later.

Bettors are getting decent prices on either team’s moneyline for their Astros vs. Orioles predictions, as DraftKings is offering the game as a virtual coin flip (-110 moneyline odds for both teams). First pitch from Camden Yards is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET.

Astros vs. Orioles prediction

MLB odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

First five innings Under 4.5 (-120) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Houston’s starting rotation leads the majors in innings pitched, ERA, and FIP since the beginning of August. And while its bullpen entered Saturday ranked eighth in ERA and third in BABIP this month, I'm limiting this wager to the first five innings. Anthony Santander and Jackson Holliday are responsible for seven late-innings runs against Astros relievers with two swings of the bat in the previous two days.

I also expect Dean Kremer to match zeroes with Yusei Kikuchi, as he's pitched to a 1.50 ERA and a .167 OBA in his previous two starts. This is a solid four-star play, as both teams are dealing with injuries to some of their most significant sluggers, such as Yordan Alvarez, Cedric Mullins, and Ryan Mountcastle.

Those who really expect a pitchers’ duel early could take advantage of bet365’s +100 odds for a total of four runs over the first five frames. But I'll gladly take the extra half-run of insurance from FanDuel.

A winning $10 wager would pay out $18.33.

Best odds: -120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.55%

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Astros vs. Orioles player props

MLB picks made Sunday at 7:42 a.m. ET.

Prediction: Yusei Kikuchi Over 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐

Yusei Kikuchi remains one of the best trade deadline acquisitions, as he's led the Astros to a 4-0 record in his four starts with the team.

There's been a huge uptick in strikeouts since Kikuchi's move to Houston, as he's recorded seven-plus punchouts in three of his four starts, good for a 12.5 K/9 rate. A significant reason for that is his slider, which has induced a .071/.278/.071 slash line, a .202 wOBA, and a 42.5% Whiff%, according to Astros Stats.

Kikuchi is getting as high as a 45.45% implied probability to record seven-plus strikeouts, based on Caesars’ +120 odds. He's also a whopping -550 favorite to record more strikeouts than Dean Kremer through BetMGM’s head-to-head props.

A winning $10 wager at bet365’s +132 odds would return $13.20 in profit.

Best odds: +132 via bet365 | Implied probability: 43.10%

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Prediction: Eloy Jimenez Over 0.5 RBIs ⭐⭐⭐

Eloy Jimenez is one of three batters in the Orioles' projected lineup with a 1.144 OPS or better across a minimum of 10 career at-bats against Kikuchi.

Jimenez is slashing .364/.417/.727 in 11 career at-bats against the southpaw, with half of his four hits going for extra bases. Although he's registered just six RBIs in 17 games played with Baltimore, Jimenez is due for positive regression when looking at his .308 batting average over limited time in a new uniform.

Oddsmakers seemingly hold confidence in Jimenez driving in a run today, as he's getting the third-shortest odds of any Orioles hitter in this market. Both Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle are receiving +165 odds, but Jimenez’s 101 wRC+ in August suggests his +200 price is better than both of those sluggers. Santander and Mountcastle are producing a wRC+ of 97 and 60 this month, respectively.

A $10 winning wager would return double that in profit, with a pay out of $30.

Best odds: +200 via bet365 | Implied probability: 33.33%

Astros vs. Orioles odds & game info

• When: Sunday, Aug 25
• First pitch: 7:00 p.m. ET 
• Where: Camden Yards, Baltimore, Md.
• How to watch: ESPN
• Favorite: Astros/Orioles (-110 via DraftKings)

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