2026 WM Phoenix Open First-Round Leader Picks: Build Your Super Bowl Bankroll on Thursday

The Super Bowl is just days away, so let's pad our bankrolls with a couple of WM Phoenix Open first-round leader predictions, as The People's Open returns to TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Ariz.

Tee times will begin at 9:20 a.m. ET off the first and 10th tees. Scottie Scheffler is the +240 outright betting favorite by the WM Phoenix Open odds, and he's just +1000 by the first-round leader odds as well. Watch Thursday's first round on PGA Tour Live (ESPN+) and Golf Channel from 3:30-7:30 p.m. ET.

Our WM Phoenix Open picks have you covered with more picks this week.

💰 WM Phoenix Open first-round leader predictions

Here are our top golf picks for the 18-hole leader of the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale:

Note: The first-round leader market is decided once everyone in the field has completed their first 18 holes. This may be Friday morning in the event of a weather or darkness delay.

⛳ Who'll lead the WM Phoenix Open after Round 1?

Best FRL bet: Sam Burns (+3500)

Round 1 tee time: 9:53 a.m. ET | Group: J.J. Spaun & Sahith Theegala

Sam Burns finished T-27 in The American Express - his only event of the season to date - with the helpful of an opening round 65. Though he stumbled through the rest of the tournament, TPC Scottsdale has been friendly to him with a T-3 and T-6 finish in his last three appearances in this event.

Burns is typically long off the tee and sharp on and around the greens. Though his putting stroke struggled two weeks ago, his irons were sharp, and they have been in his past trips to Scottsdale. I have a prop pick on Burns with my TPC Scottsdale 16th hole specials.

Ben Griffin (+3500)

Round 1 tee time: 10:04 a.m. ET | Group: Wyndham Clark & Matt Fitzpatrick

Ben Griffin enters this week at No. 9 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR). He carded an opening-round 63 in each of his first two events of the season, building on last year's impressive Tour rank of fifth in Round 1 scoring average (68.66).

Though he's played this event just twice, he finished T-36 or better each of the past two years at TPC Scottsdale. His short game has been his best asset in the early portion of the season, and I trust his usually sharp ball-striking to pick up sooner than later.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+7500)

Round 1 tee time: 9:20 a.m. ET | Group: Rasmus Hojgaard & Kevin Roy

I couldn't fully resist the long shots. Christiaan Bezuidenhout will benefit from being in the first group off the first tee on Thursday. He'll be playing more than 30 minutes ahead of the first featured group and should avoid the biggest crowds on the famed 16th hole and elsewhere.

The South African finished T-4 in this event last year in just his third competitive appearance at TPC Scottsdale, and I'm hoping his putter can stay hot for at least one more round after he gained 2.20 strokes per round on the greens last week. Our LJ Blut has more WM Phoenix Open long-shot picks.

⛅ What to consider when betting on the WM Phoenix Open first-round leader

Betting on the first-round leader of any golf tournament is far different than betting on the tournament winner or any prop market.

Here are the factors I always consider with my first-round leader picks:

• Tee times
• Weather
• Course history
• Round 1 scoring average
• Recent form
• Key stats for the week

The first-round leader betting market is much more volatile than the 72-hole event. As such, the odds for the tournament favorites are higher in this market, and the odds for the long shots are generally slightly shorter when betting on the 18-hole sample.

Early tee times are generally best to target for your picks. Courses are often at their softest and easiest, with no divots in the fairways or wear on the greens. But the weather can significantly change that line of thought. Monitor the weather (<- link to Accuweather course page) to be sure your desired golfers will be dodging the worst of the rain and wind, should any be in the forecast.

I also greatly reduce my timeframe when looking at recent performance entering Thursday's first round.

☀️ Thursday's weather at TPC Scottsdale

Weather from Accuweather.com:

📺 How to watch the WM Phoenix Open

The 2026 WM Phoenix Open will be available on PGA Tour Live Betcast via ESPN+ from 9:15 am.m. through 7:30 p.m. ET each day from Thursday through Sunday. 

Here's how to watch the tournament:

PGA Tour Live on ESPN+ will carry WM Phoenix Open coverage from 9:15-7:30 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday, 11:30-6:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, and 11-6 p.m. ET on Sunday.

👀 WM Phoenix Open betting report from BetMGM

Here is how the betting action is coming in on the 2026 WM Phoenix Open at BetMGM as of Wednesday:

Most bet first-round leader (tickets)

1. Scottie Scheffler +900
2. Keith Mitchell +5000
3. Cameron Young +3300
4. Maverick McNealy +4000
5. Si Woo Kim +3300

⭐ WM Phoenix Open featured groups

Here are the featured groups for the 2026 WM Phoenix Open television coverage; full Round 1 and 2 tee times can be seen here (all times ET).

Thursday featured groups (Round 1)

⛳ WM Phoenix Open tournament info

• Where: TPC Scottsdale (Scottsdale, Ariz.)
• When: Thursday, Feb. 5 - Sunday, Feb. 8
• Field: 121
• Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+240 via BetMGM)
• Defending champion: Thomas Detry
• Purse: $9.6 million
• FedEx Cup points: 500