U.S. Open Long Shots & Sleeper Picks 2025: Best Dark Horse Predictions for Oakmont Country Club
The U.S. Open is one of the most volatile and unpredictable golf tournaments on the PGA TOUR, and the 125th edition at Oakmont Country Club will be no different, with conditions expected to be firm and first, with carnage-inducing rough. I'm fading Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, and Rory McIlroy with my best U.S. Open long-shot picks.
Dustin Johnson won the U.S. Open the last time it was at Oakmont Country Club. He carried +1500 betting odds as one of the tournament favorites. However, he enters this year with odds of +17500 and isn't worth consideration, even as a deep sleeper pick.
🎯 U.S. Open long-shot picks
Here are my favorite sleeper picks to win the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club this week, along with their best odds from our best golf betting sites.
🎯 Russell Henley (+6500 via DraftKings)
🎯 Ben Griffin (+7500 via DraftKings)
🎯 Harris English (+10000 via Caesars)
👉 Don't miss the rest of our golf picks for more predictions on the 2025 U.S. Open. Follow the U.S. Open odds, which update in real time throughout the tournament.
💤 Sleeper picks to win the 2025 U.S. Open
Here are the three sleeper picks I'm backing to win the 2025 U.S. Open.
🎯 Russell Henley
Best odds to win: +6500 via DraftKings ($10 pays $650) | Implied win probability: 1.52%
Alternate bet: Top 20 finish (+188 via BetMGM)
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Henley tied for seventh in last year's U.S. Open and followed that with a fifth-place showing in the British Open. Those were his first top-10 results in majors since a T-4 in the 2023 Masters.
The 36-year-old returned to the PGA Tour's winner's circle for the first time since 2022 with victory in the Arnold Palmer Invitational Signature Event earlier this season. He's maintained strong iron play (0.72 strokes gained: approach per round) and is one of the most accurate drivers in this week's field. We're riding him as part of our best U.S. Open sleeper picks.
A winning $10 bet at FanDuel returns a profit of $700, while other books offer odds of just +5500.
🎯 Ben Griffin
Best odds to win: +7500 via DraftKings ($10 pays $750) | Implied win probability: 1.32%
Alternate bet: Top 10 after Round 1 (+600 via DraftKings)
If the U.S. Open was only a few more weeks away, Griffin may have closed among the betting favorites.
For those living under a rock, or those who only pay attention to the majors, the 29-year-old claimed his first solo PGA Tour victory in May (Charles Schwab Challenge), after winning the Zurich Classic with partner Andrew Novak a month earlier.
He tied for eighth in the PGA Championship after just missing out on an invitation to the Masters, and he was the runner-up to Scheffler in the Memorial Tournament. He's been riding a hot putter, but he's also gained strokes in all other key metrics over this incredible run that has vaulted him to No. 15 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).
He may not win in his first career U.S. Open appearance, so I'd advise getting a piece of the first-round leader market as well.
🎯 Harris English
Best odds to win: +10000 via Caesars ($10 pays $1,000) | Implied win probability: 0.99%
Alternate bet: Top 30 finish (+150 via DraftKings)
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English enters the week at No. 17 in the OWGR following a T-12 finish in the Memorial Tournament. He was a co-runner-up in the PGA Championship after a T-12 in the Masters. His victory in the Farmers Insurance Open ended a 3.5-year victory drought.
English is an accurate driver, has averaged 1.46 strokes gained: tee-to-green per round across his last 16 rounds, and is an excellent putter. All three of those traits will need to be leaned on this week at Oakmont, and a winning $10 bet would return a profit of $1,100 at FanDuel. BetRivers has his odds to win at just +6600.
🤖 AI U.S. Open long-shot pick
🌟 Brooks Koepka
Best odds: +6600 to win via BetMGM
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✔️ Why Koepka is a savvy sleeper:
- Oakmont pedigree: Two-time U.S. Open champion (2017, 2018) who thrives on brutal course setups
- Course fit: Experience handling major-style difficulty, narrow fairways, and fast greens - Oakmont demands grit, and Koepka delivers
- Current form trend: Though not dominant this season, he has been known to peak in majors
- Value upside: 66–1 (1.49% implied probability) offers a huge payout boost on a former champ at a course that suits him
🔮 U.S. Open expert picks
- U.S. Open first-round leader odds
- U.S. Open projected cut line
- U.S. Open power rankings
- U.S. Open matchup picks
- U.S. Open prop bets
- U.S. Open odds
- U.S. Open picks to win
- U.S. Open long shots
- U.S. Open AI predictions
👀 U.S. Open betting insights
Here is how the betting action on the U.S. Open is coming in at BetMGM:
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % | Biggest liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler (16.4) | Scottie Scheffler (30.2) | Scottie Scheffler |
| Bryson DeChambeau (12.0) | Bryson DeChambeau (15.3) | Bryson DeChambeau |
| Rory McIlroy (6.0) | Jon Rahm (6.6) | Collin Morikawa |
U.S. Open line movement:
- Scottie Scheffler: +500 ➡️ +275
- Jon Rahm: +2000 ➡️ +1200
- Rory McIlroy: +900 ➡️ +1400
⛳ U.S. Open info
- When: Thursday, June 12 - Sunday, June 15
- Where: Oakmont Country Club, Oakmont, Pa.
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+280 via Caesars)
- Defending champion: Bryson DeChambeau
- Field: 156
- Cut: Low 60 scores (plus ties)
📊 U.S. Open odds 2025
Our live U.S. Open odds will update in real time based on the odds from our best sports betting sites to help with your golf picks.
💰 U.S. Open betting history
| Year | Name | Odds (as of Jan. 1) | Course |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Bryson DeChambeau | +3000 | Pinehurst No. 2 |
| 2023 | Wyndham Clark | NA (+10000 prior to Round 1) | Los Angeles Country Club |
| 2022 | Matt Fitzpatrick | +5000 | The Country Club |
| 2021 | Jon Rahm | +1200 | Torrey Pines |
| 2020 | Bryson DeChambeau | +3000 | Winged Foot Golf Club |
| 2019 | Gary Woodland | +8000 | Pebble Beach Golf Links |
| 2018 | Brooks Koepka | +4000 | Shinnecock Hills |
| 2017 | Brooks Koepka | +4000 | Erin Hills |
| 2016 | Dustin Johnson | +1500 | Oakmont Country Club |
| 2015 | Jordan Spieth | +800 | Chambers Bay |
⛳ Golf betting odds pages
| Masters Odds | PGA Championship Odds | U.S. Open Odds |
| British Open Odds | WM Phoenix Open Odds | Players Championship Odds |
| FedEx Cup Odds | Ryder Cup Odds | TGL odds |
🏌️Best golf betting sites for the 2025 U.S Open
Looking to bet on the U.S. Open? Here are the top-rated golf betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with the best sportsbook promos:
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