U.S. Open Outright Picks: Best Bets to Win at Oakmont Country Club
Oakmont Country Club in Oakmont, Pennsylvania, hosts the U.S. Open for a record 10th time as the tournament tees off today with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy both aiming to secure their second major title of the 2025 season. But when it comes to our U.S. Open picks to win, where can we find the best value?
Scheffler (+280 via Caesars) remains the consensus betting favorite by the latest U.S. Open odds.
🏆 Who will win the U.S. Open?
See all of our golf picks for the 2025 U.S. Open and upcoming events.
🎯 Scottie Scheffler (+280 via Caesars)
🎯 Shane Lowry (+4500 via DraftKings)
🎯 Keegan Bradley (+6500 via DraftKings)
You can find the best and latest odds for all of your U.S. Open picks via our player prop odds tool.
🔮 U.S. Open expert picks
- U.S. Open first-round leader odds
- U.S. Open projected cut line
- U.S. Open power rankings
- U.S. Open matchup picks
- U.S. Open prop bets
- U.S. Open odds
- U.S. Open picks to win
- U.S. Open long shots
- U.S. Open AI predictions
💰 U.S. Open outright picks
Here are my best outright picks to win this week's U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club:
Scottie Scheffler
👉 Best odds: +280 via Caesars ($10 bet pays $280 profit) | Implied win probability: 26.32%
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Scheffler has three PGA Tour victories since his fourth-place finish in the Masters, including his first career PGA Championship victory. He followed that with a win in the Memorial Tournament Signature Event as his last competitive outing entering this week.
He re-solidified his status as the No. 1 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) after McIlroy had begun to close the gap with his hot start to the season.
Scheffler ranks first in this field in strokes gained: tee-to-green (3.78) and SG: approach (2.12), and is third in SG: off-the-tee (1.16) per round across everyone's last 16 measured rounds.
It's tough to love these short odds and the 26.32% implied win probability in a 156-man major field, but he still headlines our U.S. Open picks to win.
Shane Lowry
👉 Best odds: +4500 via DraftKings ($10 bet pays $450 profit) | Implied win probability: 2.17%
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Lowry begins this week 12th in the OWGR following a T-13 finish in the Canadian Open and a T-23 in the Memorial Tournament before that. He tied for 42nd in the Masters and missed the cut in the PGA Championship, but he has four top 10 results this year.
He was a co-runner-up in the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont, and he tied for sixth in two of four majors last year, so I'm not too troubled by this year's major results thus far.
Lowry's among the most accurate drivers in this field across his last 16 rounds, and his 0.97 SG: approach per round over that time rank fourth among all PGA Tour golfers.
Keegan Bradley
👉 Best odds: +6500 via DraftKings ($10 bet pays $650 profit) | Implied win probability: 13.33%
This really isn't as much about the long odds and potential $650 profit on a winning $10 bet as it's simply about the golfer. These odds should be significantly shorter and are only this long as a result of Scheffler's suppressed odds at the top of the board.
Bradley ranks fourth in this week's field in SG: tee-to-green across his last 16 measured rounds. His 0.60 SG: off-the-tee per round perfectly blends accuracy and distance, both of which will be essential for this week's winner.
The 18th-ranked golfer in the world tied for the eighth in the PGA Championship for his best major finish since the 2022 U.S. Open.
While we initially recommended Bradley at a ludicrous +10000, I'm still plenty happy to bet him at +6500 as I think he should be priced even closer to the favorites.
🤖 AI U.S. Open prediction
ChatGPT predicts Scottie Scheffler will win the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club with a winning 72-hole score of 2-under 278.
Why Scheffler:
- Odds to win: +280 via Caesars (26.32%)
- Form: Won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, PGA Championship, and Memorial in three of his last four starts, and hasn't finished outside the top 10 since March
- Course fit: His ball-striking precision and calm temperament make him ideally suited to Oakmont’s narrow fairways, punishing rough, and lightning-fast greens
🎯 Predicted winning score: -2 (278)
- Oakmont’s brutal layout historically yields winning scores around even par or slightly below
- DraftKings’ Over/Under for winning score is 278.5 shaded to the Over, suggesting a -2 total is a realistic and competitive target
Summary: Scheffler’s current form, major-championship pedigree, and course compatibility at Oakmont align with the odds - he remains the best value play. His predicted winning score of 2-under (278) fits historical trends and reflects a realistic margin at a glacially difficult U.S. Open.
👀 U.S. Open betting insights
Here is how the betting action on the U.S. Open is coming in at BetMGM:
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % | Biggest liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler (16.4) | Scottie Scheffler (30.2) | Scottie Scheffler |
| Bryson DeChambeau (12.0) | Bryson DeChambeau (15.3) | Bryson DeChambeau |
| Rory McIlroy (6.0) | Jon Rahm (6.6) | Collin Morikawa |
U.S. Open line movement:
- Scottie Scheffler: +500 ➡️ +275
- Jon Rahm: +2000 ➡️ +1200
- Rory McIlroy: +900 ➡️ +1400
📊 U.S. Open odds 2025
Our live U.S. Open odds will update in real time based on the odds from our best sports betting sites to help with your golf picks.
⛳ U.S. Open info
- When: Thursday, June 12 - Sunday, June 15
- Where: Oakmont Country Club, Oakmont, Pa.
- How to watch: NBC, Peacock
- Favorite: Scottie Scheffler (+280 via Caesars)
- Defending champion: Bryson DeChambeau
- Field: 156
- Cut: Low 60 scores (plus ties)
⛳ Golf betting odds pages
| Masters Odds | PGA Championship Odds | U.S. Open Odds |
| British Open Odds | WM Phoenix Open Odds | Players Championship Odds |
| FedEx Cup Odds | Ryder Cup Odds | TGL odds |
🏌️Here are the best golf betting sites for the 2025 U.S Open
Looking to bet on the U.S. Open? Here are the top-rated best golf betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with the best sportsbook promos:
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