We Asked ChatGPT Who Will Win the 2025 U.S. Open, Plus First-Round Leader, Long Shots & Props
The conditions at Oakmont Country Club in Pennsylvania this week seem likely to humble (or humiliate?) the 156-man field. To save myself from falling into that same trap, I've recruited the help of ChatGPT for its best U.S. Open AI predictions ahead of the season's third major.
Scottie Scheffler, Bryson DeChambeau, and Jon Rahm the U.S. Open betting favorites. But with voracious rough, lightning-quick greens, and the church pew bunkers likely to wreak havoc from Thursday through Sunday, we've trained ChatGPT to sift through the carnage ahead.
🤖 U.S. Open AI picks & predictions for Oakmont Country Club
We used ChatGPT for its March Madness bracket, Kentucky Derby picks, and Masters predictions, and we're once again turning to OpenAI's popular chatbot to predict the winner of this week's U.S. Open.
Ahead of tomorrow's first round, I trained ChatGPT to study the latest golf odds, betting history, and relevant trends before predicting this weekend's winner:
🏆 ChatGPT's pick to win the 2025 U.S. Open
ChatGPT predicts Scottie Scheffler will win the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club with a winning 72-hole score of 2-under 278.
Why Scheffler:
- Odds to win: +280 via Caesars (26.32%)
- Form: Won the CJ Cup Byron Nelson, PGA Championship, and Memorial in three of his last four starts, and hasn't finished outside the top 10 since March
- Course fit: His ball-striking precision and calm temperament make him ideally suited to Oakmont’s narrow fairways, punishing rough, and lightning-fast greens
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🎯 Predicted winning score: -2 (278)
- Oakmont’s brutal layout historically yields winning scores around even par or slightly below
- DraftKings’ Over/Under for winning score is 278.5 shaded to the Over, suggesting a -2 total is a realistic and competitive target
Summary: Scheffler’s current form, major-championship pedigree, and course compatibility at Oakmont align with the odds - he remains the best value play. His predicted winning score of 2-under (278) fits historical trends and reflects a realistic margin at a glacially difficult U.S. Open.
🔮 U.S. Open expert picks
- U.S. Open first-round leader odds
- U.S. Open projected cut line
- U.S. Open power rankings
- U.S. Open matchup picks
- U.S. Open prop bets
- U.S. Open odds
- U.S. Open picks to win
- U.S. Open long shots
- U.S. Open AI predictions
⏰ ChatGPT's first-round leader prediction
Based on current tee times, typical scoring trends, and historical course familiarity, ChatGPT's top pick for the 2025 U.S. Open first-round leader at Oakmont is Justin Rose (+10000 via BetRivers):
✔️ Why Rose leads the pack:
- Oakmont pedigree: 2013 U.S. Open champion with strong experience in major test setups
- Masters first-round history: Led Round 1 at Augusta twice - proven fast-starters in grueling conditions
- Solid early tee time: Drawn in the morning wave (7:40 a.m. ET), when course conditions are typically softer and scores lower
- Odds show value: At 80‑1, Rose is well-represented among top long-shots, with standout position in expert picks
🐎 Best U.S. Open AI long-shot prediction
🌟 Brooks Koepka
Best odds: +6600 to win via BetMGM
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✔️ Why Koepka is a savvy sleeper:
- Oakmont pedigree: Two-time U.S. Open champion (2017, 2018) who thrives on brutal course setups
- Course fit: Experience handling major-style difficulty, narrow fairways, and fast greens - Oakmont demands grit, and Koepka delivers
- Current form trend: Though not dominant this season, he has been known to peak in majors
- Value upside: 66–1 (1.49% implied probability) offers a huge payout boost on a former champ at a course that suits him
💰 ChatGPT's best U.S. Open prop bets
Here are some of ChartGPT's favorite prop bets for the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont, based on current odds and course fit:
🔹 Anytime hole-in-one
- Yes: +135 (DraftKings)
- No: –190
Insight: With Oakmont’s long par‑3s and over 60 players teeing off in all four rounds, a +135 payout is solid value.
🔹 Playoff finish
- Yes: +450
- No: –700
Insight: ~18% implied probability, but U.S. Opens at Oakmont often go extra holes - this prop has upside.
🔹 Top LIV golfer to finish highest
- Top LIV: DeChambeau (+160), Rahm (+250), Niemann (+500)
Pick: Jon Rahm (+250) – steady performance, major pedigree, and LIV momentum.
🔹 Top nationality
- USA: –180
- Europe: +210
- Rest of world: +600
Insight: Superb value with Europe at +210 - share your bet to hedge if a European favorite deepens late.
🔹 Top Irish golfer
- Shane Lowry: +125
- Rory McIlroy: –175
Pick: Lowry (+125) - former Oakmont runner-up (2016), in peak ball-striking form this spring.
🔹 Long-shot dark horse (Top-20 finish)
- Sepp Straka: +5000 to win, but Top-5: +550, Top-20: ~+100
Insight: Straka ranks top 4 in strokes gained: tee-to-green - elite ball-striking merits an “each-way” play.
✅ Bonus parlay idea
- Yes hole-in-one @ +135
- Playoff finish yes @ +450
- Europe wins nationality @ +210
This parlay nets +935 - high-risk, high-reward combo tied to Oakmont’s unpredictability.
🚫 Rory McIlroy
Best odds: +1200 to win via BetMGM
❌ Why ChatGPT's fading Rory:
- Oakmont struggles: Missed the cut here in 2016, citing “impossible” putting conditions. The greens and layout don’t suit his style
- U.S. Open drought: Despite great form in recent majors, he hasn’t won a U.S. Open since 2011 and has often been inconsistent in final rounds
- Recent putting issues: Rory’s strokes gained putting numbers have dropped in recent starts, which is a red flag at Oakmont, where putting touch is critical
- Public betting trend: He’s consistently overbet in majors, meaning less value in the +1000 line than in similarly ranked players with better track records at tough setups
📉 Recommended fade bet:
- Miss the cut: +400
- Top-20 finish – No: +120
- Head-to-head matchup – Lose to Xander Schauffele or Collin Morikawa (check your sportsbook’s matchup props)
📊 Quick-hit AI results for 2025 U.S. Open
- Winner: Scottie Scheffler
- Winning score: -2
- Cut line: +5 (145)
- How many players make the cut: 64
- Longest drive: Bryson DeChambeau, 402 yards
- Number of holes in one: 1
🏆 Projected top 10 – 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont
- Scottie Scheffler: -2 (278) Elite tee-to-green performance and unmatched consistency give him his first U.S. Open title
- Collin Morikawa: Even (280) Precise irons and calm demeanor position him well on Oakmont’s demanding layout
- Brooks Koepka: +1 (281) Five-time major winner grinds out another strong finish in brutal conditions
- Bryson DeChambeau: +2 (282) Drives the ball long and straight, stays in contention despite occasional short-game hiccups
- Xander Schauffele: +2 (282) Top-10 machine in majors delivers again with sharp ball-striking and clutch putting
- Viktor Hovland: +3 (283) Solid ball-striking keeps him in the mix, though short game costs him a run at the win
- Tommy Fleetwood: +4 (284) Steady and smart play earns him his best U.S. Open finish to date
- Hideki Matsuyama: +4 (284) Tee-to-green excellence overcomes putting struggles to land in the top 10
- Max Homa: +5 (285) Strong season continues with a big showing in one of the year’s toughest tests
- Rory McIlroy: +5 (285) Hot start fades late as Oakmont’s greens and pressure catch up with him again
👀 U.S. Open betting insights
Here is how the betting action on the U.S. Open is coming in at BetMGM:
| Highest ticket % | Highest handle % | Biggest liabilities |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler (16.4) | Scottie Scheffler (30.2) | Scottie Scheffler |
| Bryson DeChambeau (12.0) | Bryson DeChambeau (15.3) | Bryson DeChambeau |
| Rory McIlroy (6.0) | Jon Rahm (6.6) | Collin Morikawa |
U.S. Open line movement:
- Scottie Scheffler: +500 ➡️ +275
- Jon Rahm: +2000 ➡️ +1200
- Rory McIlroy: +900 ➡️ +1400
⛳ Golf betting odds pages
| Masters Odds | PGA Championship Odds | U.S. Open Odds |
| British Open Odds | WM Phoenix Open Odds | Players Championship Odds |
| FedEx Cup Odds | Ryder Cup Odds | TGL odds |
🏌️Best golf betting sites for the 2025 U.S Open
Looking to bet on the U.S. Open? Here are the top-rated golf betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with the best sportsbook promos:
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