2024 Players Championship Sleeper Picks & Predictions: Best Long-Shot Targets for TPC Sawgrass
The unofficial fifth major tees off Thursday at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., and we're making our Players Championship sleeper picks and predictions with Scottie Scheffler set as the prohibitive betting favorite by the Players Championship odds from our best golf betting sites.
Following Scottie Scheffler's victory in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the 2024 PGA Tour season heats up with this week's Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Scheffler's previous PGA Tour victory was the 2023 Players Championship, and he'll defend that title this week in the wake of his victory in the Signature Event. Of course, Scheffler has remained firmly in the No. 1 spot in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).
As one may expect, the World No. 1 is a prohibitive betting favorite this week for all of the above reasons, and his outright odds are offered as low as +500 across our best sports betting sites. That said, long-shot winners have been the theme of the PGA Tour season thus far, and that's where we'll be looking with our Players Championship sleeper picks and predictions. Our Players Championship picks target more conservative odds.
Players Championship sleepers and long shots
Jason Day
Best odds: +5000 via BetMGM
Day enters this week at No. 21 in the OWGR on the heels of a T-36 in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He finished alone in ninth at the Genesis Invitational as the previous Signature Event, and the former World No. 1 can still contend against the PGA Tour's best after a T-2 in last year's British Open.
Day enters the 2024 Players Championship as a great course fit. He leads the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage from this week's key distance of inside 125 yards. He has 23 birdies from 51 such approach shots. Day's been gaining strokes in all key areas across his last 12 measured rounds, including on and around the greens.
After winning this event in 2016, Day tied for fifth in 2018 and for eighth in 2019. He most recently tied for 19th last year at TPC Sawgrass.
His outright odds are as low as +4000, so be sure to get this +5000 ticket via BetMGM.
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Secondary pick: Top Rest of World (+1400 via FanDuel)
If the +5000 outright odds are a little steep for you, turn to the Top Rest of the World market for Day. FanDuel offers a market-high price of +1400 with our other best sports betting apps slightly lower at +1200.
Day is typically fifth on the oddsboard across the market with Hideki Matsuyama or Si Woo Kim typically favored. Day already has a pair of top-10 results in Signature Events this year, and he was strong with his driver and putter during the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
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Lucas Glover
Best odds: +17500 via bet365
Glover enters this week at No. 39 in the OWGR after finishing the 2023 calendar year ranked 30th. A two-time winner late last season, his best results through six events to start 2024 were a T-29 in the season-opening Sentry and his T-30 finish last week.
It's been poor putting that has hurt Glover of late after that was a strength of his game during his resurgence last season. He has remained an excellent ball-striker, and we're targeting his driving accuracy at the demanding TPC Sawgrass. Glover also ranks 26th this season in birdie-or-better percentage from inside of 125 yards.
The former major winner has a best result of third place in this event in 2010. However, his 42 career rounds at TPC Sawgrass rank seventh in this field. The par 72 course is relatively short at 7,275 yards, so we can trust Glover to lean on that experience and navigate his way around the familiar venue.
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Secondary pick: +187 via bet365
We can play it much safer with Glover and still get plus-money odds through bet365 for a top-40 finish. DraftKings has market-low odds of +125 for this pick, so be sure to avoid that shop.
We're banking on Glover to replicate his strong iron play of last week and to get a little more success from his ice-cold putter. Again, we know he has that in him as it powered him to two victories late in the summer.
This is an excellent price shopping opportunity and bettors should be rushing out to bet365 once again.
Players Championship tournament info
- When: Thursday, March 14 - Sunday, March 17
- Where: TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
- Purse: $25 million
- FedEx Cup points: 750
- Defending champion: Scottie Scheffler
- How to watch: Golf Channel, NBC
Past Players Championship long-shot winners
- Webb Simpson, +6000, 2018
- Rickie Fowler, +5000, 2015
- Martin Kaymer, +6000, 2014
- Matt Kuchar, +4000, 2012
- K.J. Choi, +4000, 2011
- Tim Clark, +10000, 2010
How to bet golf long shots
Betting on golf long shots involves identifying undervalued players who have the potential to outperform expectations and secure a surprise victory. Start by researching players who have shown flashes of brilliance or have a history of performing well in specific tournaments or under certain conditions. Look beyond the top-ranked players and consider factors such as recent form, course suitability, and past performances at similar venues.
Once you've identified potential long shots, assess their odds relative to their perceived chances of winning. Look for discrepancies between a player's odds and their actual potential, as this could indicate value betting opportunities. Keep in mind that betting on long shots carries inherent risk, so it's essential to manage your bankroll responsibly and be prepared for the possibility of losses.
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- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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