PGA Championship Expert Picks: Does Rory Return to Glory at Oak Hill?

Our PGA Championship expert picks have you covered with three outright selections, three long shots, and three prop bets for the second major of 2023 based on the top odds best sports betting apps.

Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, NY is the host site of this week's PGA Championship. Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm are consensus favorites by the PGA Championship odds from our best sports betting sites, but there are plenty of sleepers and long shots to consider.

Sportsbook Review's Esten McLaren, Neil Parker, and Shane Jackson have teamed up for our best PGA Championship expert picks, including outright, long-shot, and prop picks (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

PGA Championship expert picks

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PGA Championship expert picks to win

Cameron Young (+3300 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐

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While I'm in full support of Neil's pick of McIlroy (as highlighted in my own PGA Championship outright picks), I'll aim a little higher and back Cameron Young with these +3300 odds. The reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year's odds have climbed this week after he was priced around +2500 in the PGA Championship futures market for the better part of the last year.

Young has plenty of distance to contend at Oak Country Club, which is just upstate of his hometown of Scarborough, NY. While playing all four majors for the first time in his career last year, Young missed the cut in two and finished T-3 and second in the other two. He proceeded to tie for seventh in this year's Masters in his second appearance at Augusta National.

That boom-or-bust nature helps to inflate Young's PGA Championship odds, and that's taking away the hometown discount we'd usually expect to see for a golfer of his caliber. - McLaren

Rory McIlroy (+1600 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

A missed cut at the Masters in April and an underwhelming T-47 finish in the Wells Fargo Championship earlier this month have McIlroy mispriced ahead of the PGA Championship, and this is especially true with the DraftKings odds. He has four worldwide wins since finishing eighth at last year’s PGA Championship, and he remains statistically elite.

Of course, McIlroy is also a member at Oak Hill and the demanding track sets up perfectly for his strengths. After all, even with his recent poor form, Rory ranks second in true strokes gained: off-the-tee and third in true SG: tee-to-green in this field across his past 46 measured rounds.

Placing this bet through DraftKings and taking advantage of its +300 odds surge on any outright bet moves McIlroy to +1900 to win this week. It’s a huge advantage over the odds available across our other best sports betting apps, too. Landing the +1900 number presents a positive expected value of 54%—and an added $70 of profit on a winning $10 ticket—compared to the +1200 number through Caesars. - Parker

Scottie Scheffler (+750 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

I can sometimes get too caught up in finding value when I should be focused on picking golfers that can actually win. Scheffler can not only win this week’s PGA Championship, but he is the deserving co-favorite along with Rahm.

Scheffler is playing as well as anyone right now, finishing top-10 or better in six of his nine events in 2023. He hasn’t finished worse than T-12 over that span, a stretch that includes two victories. 

The key to winning another major this weekend will be his putting, which has not been good of late. But if putts are dropping, Scheffler could pull away from a loaded field with how well he is striking the ball right now.

DraftKings is offering a promotion that allows bettors to use a +300 surge price on one outright bet for the PGA Championship. So we will actually take advantage of that in this case, bumping Scheffler’s odds from +700 to +1000 to win the PGA Championship. It is hard to argue against the value of those odds when he is listed at just +650 via Caesars. - Jackson

PGA Championship expert long-shot picks

Keegan Bradley (+10000 via DraftKings) ⭐

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Bradley is featured in my PGA Championship sleepers and long-shot picks. While the odds have dropped for Rickie Fowler and Talor Gooch since that article was published, the +10000 ticket on Bradley remains an excellent value, even in this major field.

The 2011 PGA Champion tied for 19th at Oak Hill CC in 2013. He returned to the PGA Tour's winners circle for the first time since 2018 with a victory in the Zozo Championship during the fall swing and that was shortly followed by a runner-up finish in the Farmers Insurance Open which has helped Bradley get back to 22nd in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR).

I'm especially attracted to Bradley's short game this week as failing to stick on the greens on long approach shots will inevitably lead to trouble for even the best ball-strikers in major conditions. That bodes well for the expert escape artist. - McLaren

Joaquin Niemann (+9000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The common consensus with every player from the LIV Golf Series is it’s more difficult to peg their game from a statistical standpoint. There’s no shotlink data, and it’s obviously an entirely different tournament format. Still, Niemann’s resume is solid, and he’s coming off a T-16 at the Masters in April.

I arrived at Niemann because of his long odds through FanDuel. The +9000 number doesn’t align with the rest of our best sportsbooks, and it’s also out of whack from his prices leading into the 2022 major championships. Niemann was +5000 to win the PGA Championship last year, and he was as short as +3500 to win the U.S. Open. 

The Chilean is also trading as short as +6100 to win this week through BetMGM, and the difference between the two prices checks out at a positive expected value of 46% and an extra $290 of profit on a winning $10 ticket. It’s also worth noting that FanDuel has a cash-out option, so you also have added flexibility. - Parker

Max Homa (+4500 via PointsBet) ⭐

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Don’t fall in love with too many long shots in majors, as the best golfers in the world usually take care of business in the biggest events. Homa isn’t like most long shots, however, as he ranks seventh in total strokes gained in this field over the last 50 measured rounds.

Homa notched a 13th-place finish at last year’s PGA Championship, and has been trending in the right direction this spring. He is coming off an eighth-place finish in the Wells Fargo, placing 14th or better in four of his last six events.

Homa is listed with odds as low as +3600 via FanDuel, so take advantage of the 45/1 offering at PointsBet before it is too late. He could play much better than expected this weekend. We're getting a much lower number in Homa's U.S. Open odds to help suggest value in this price. - Jackson

PGA Championship prop picks

Top LIV Player: Talor Gooch (+1000 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This Top LIV Player prop bet has grown to be the favorite of my PGA Championship props and best bets.

Gooch won back-to-back LIV Golf Invitational events in Australia and Singapore before a lackluster finish in Tulsa, OK last week. While Dustin Johnson was in top form for his win in Tulsa and Brooks Koepka's strong performance in the Masters immediately followed a LIV Golf victory, I'm taking the value of Gooch over his better-known compatriots on the rival tour. - McLaren

Brooks Koepka Top-20 finish (+110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Brooks was an ATM during majors for a four-year stretch with four victories and another eight top-10 results from 2017 through 2021. His T-2 showing at the Masters in April affirmed he can still hang with the best of the best, and he heads to Oak Hill with consecutive top-10 finishes on the LIV Golf Series.

Ranking ninth in true SG: tee-to-green and fourth in true SG: putting at Augusta National should have your attention, too. Koepka is disciplined and calculated, and if this track plays as difficult as advertised, he has exactly what it takes to be a leaderboard staple for all four rounds.

This is also another bet where we’re landing a nice edge by shopping for the best odds across our best live betting sites. BetMGM has Koepka priced at -125 to register a top-20 finish, so we’re landing a positive expected value of 17% and a sneaky extra $3 of profit on a $10 wager. - Parker

Xander Schauffele Top-10 finish (+175 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

In the spirit of not overthinking this week, let’s add a top-10 finish from Schauffele to the card for the 2023 PGA Championship. He has finished in this position in five of his last seven events, including a T-10 showing at the Masters.

Schauffele always seems to be a popular outright pick, but he has yet to win a major. Still, he continues to deliver and has finished inside the top 15 in four consecutive majors entering this weekend. We expect him to be near the top of the leaderboard once again.

The true price for this prop is closer to +150, as evidenced by FanDuel’s +155 listing for the same market. We will take the slight edge at DraftKings, which is offering +175 odds on Schauffele to end up in the top 10. - Jackson

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