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PGA Championship Sleepers & Long-Shot Picks: 3 Darkhorse Candidates for the Wanamaker Trophy

Esten McLaren

Last Updated: May 17, 2023 7:06 PM EDT • 3 min 39 sec read.

Rickie Fowler of the United States watches his shot as we look at the top PGA Championship sleeper and long-shot picks
Rickie Fowler of the United States watches his shot from the third tee during the final round of the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Country Club on May 07, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images via AFP.

As casual golf betters awaken in time for the second major of 2023, our PGA Championship sleeper and long-shot picks target three value bets with odds longer than 50-1 from our best sports betting apps.

As the world's best golfers gather at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, NY for the second major of the year, we can't help but wonder if this venue will produce another surprising long-shot winner.

In 2013, Jason Dufner defied the odds with a victory in the PGA Championship, holding pre-tournament odds of +3000 to claim the Wanamaker Trophy. Similarly, back in 2003, Shaun Micheel wasn't even included in the outright odds market, yet he emerged as the unexpected champion. So, as this prestigious tournament unfolds, could we witness another sleeper or long-shot pick triumph in Rochester?

We've assessed the PGA Championship odds and looked at our top outright picks and predictions; below, we target three PGA Championship sleeper and long-shot picks (odds via our best sports betting sites).

PGA Championship sleeper and long-shot picks

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Rickie Fowler (+6600 via PointsBet)

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Following Jason Day's triumphant victory in the AT&T Byron Nelson, which ended his five-year winless drought on the PGA Tour and significantly improved his chances in the PGA Championship, Rickie Fowler aims to achieve a similar feat. Fowler seeks to mark a resurgent start to the 2022-23 PGA Tour season by securing a victory, thus ending his four-year dry spell.

Although Fowler missed out on invitations to several major tournaments in recent years, he has consistently participated in the PGA Championship. Last year, he finished in a commendable T-23 position, preceded by a T-8 finish in 2021.

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Fowler has regained his exceptional putting skills from his earlier years, evident in his average of 0.98 true strokes gained: approach and 1.20 SG: tee-to-green per round across his last 32 measured rounds. Having tied for 19th place at Oak Hill CC in 2013, he possesses a modest advantage in terms of experience compared to much of the PGA Championship field.

A win or strong finish this week would greatly reduce Fowler's U.S. Open odds so now's a good time to get ahead of the market with a futures bet.

Alternate bet: Top-10 finish (+450)

Talor Gooch (+8000 via FanDuel)

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Like most, I don't want much to do with those returning from the LIV Golf Invitational Series this week. Despite the performances of Brooks Koepka and Phil Mickelson in the Masters, the ability of those who defected for the rival tour to compete in a 72-hole even remains in question.

However, Gooch is in the best form of anyone from the rebel tour. He won back-to-back events in Australia and Singapore before a lackluster T-36 finish in last week's LIV Golf Invitational: Tulsa. Gooch also tied for 20th in last year's PGA Championship before his unanticipated departure for the LIV Series. He returned for a T-34 finish at Augusta National in April.

We don't have any accurate stat information from LIV Golf but the RangeGoats GC standout is in excellent form and was an up-and-comer on the PGA Tour before his departure. He's a quality bet at this +9000 number from FanDuel with PGA Championship long-shot odds as low as +6500 via DraftKings. I've also backed Gooch with my PGA Championship props and best bets.

Alternate bet: Top LIV player (+1000 via BetMGM)

Check out Neil Parker's PGA Championship power rankings

Keegan Bradley (+10000 via DraftKings, BetMGM)

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Bradley, a native of Vermont but graduate of St. John's University will have somewhat of a home-course advantage this week, and he matched Fowler (and Hideki Matsuyama) with a T-19 finish at Oak Hill in 2013.

Also similarly to Fowler, Bradley has worked his way back up to No. 22 in the world rankings. Once ranked as high as No. 10, he had fallen as low as No. 91 early in 2022 before working his way back into form. That resurgence was highlighted by a win at the Zozo Championship in the fall, but Bradley was also the runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open and tied for 10th in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Bradley's second career PGA Tour win was the 2011 PGA Championship, where he won in a playoff over Dufner at Atlanta Athletic Club.

Bradley's odds this week have fallen as low as +8000 via PointsBet.

Alternate bet: Tournament group vs. Theegala, Reed, Scott, Lowry (+350 via DraftKings)

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Written By:
Esten McLaren
Esten is the Senior Publishing Editor for SportsbookReview.com. He previously spent time as the Managing Editor of SportsbookWire.com, and he has done freelance work in sports betting for TheLines, PlayPicks, and BettingPros. He's well versed in the NFL, NHL, MLB, and NBA, but his true passion is with the PGA Tour. Esten's always happy to chase a long shot and will never shy away from a futures bet, but he'll never stop backing Rory McIlroy in majors. He's also a recovering Ottawa Senators and Atlanta Falcons fan. Always bet against the Toronto Maple Leafs at plus money.