Farmers Insurance Open Picks & Odds 2025: Who'll Win at Torrey Pines?
The PGA Tour's West Coast swing continues with the annual stop at Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego, Calif. This week's tournament runs on a traditional Wednesday-Saturday schedule to avoid conflicts with the NFL's NFC and AFC championships on Sunday.
Ludvig Aberg (+900) has passed Hideki Matsuyama (+1200) as the consensus betting favorite by the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open odds across our best golf betting sites. Sungjae Im, Jason Day, Tony Finau, and Keegan Bradley trail not too far behind as we make our best Farmers Insurance Open picks to claim the outright win at Torry Pines.
Matthieu Pavon is back to defend his long-shot win last year and carries +11000 Farmers Insurance Open odds while hoping to go back-to-back at Torrey Pines.
Farmers Insurance Open picks
<>- Tony Finau to win (+2800 via bet365)
- Taylor Pendrith to finish top 10 (+360 via DraftKings)
- Jhonattan Vegas to finish top 20 (+320 via bet365)
PGA Tour odds this week: 2025 Farmers Insurance Open odds
Live Farmers Insurance odds update in real time.
2025 Farmers Insurance Open pick to win
Tony Finau
Best odds: +2800 via bet365 | Implied probability: 3.45%
A six-time PGA Tour winner, Finau is creeping up on two years without a victory (2023 Mexico Open). He returns to Torrey Pines off of a T-6 finish last year, which followed a T-9 the year prior. Hs has averaged 1.69 true strokes gained on the field per round at Torrey Pines' South Course across 30 career rounds.
Finau missed the cut in last week's American Express, but he tied for 15th in the Sentry Signature Event to open the season. Approach play and driving distance have been his usual strong suits across his last 16 measured rounds dating back to the fall, and those skills always play well at this venue.
We're getting nice value via bet365's +2800 outright odds. All of our other best sports betting sites have his odds to win set at +2200. That's a potential difference of $60 in profit on a winning $10 bet.
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My first click: Shane Lowry to win (+3000)
Lowry has played rarely and sporadically in the Farmers Insurance Open. His T-25 finish last year was his best result since a T-13 in 2016, and it was his first appearance in this tournament since 2018.
The Irishman enters this week 28th in the OWGR and will play his first event of the 2025 season. He played excellent golf in the fall, mainly on the DP World Tour, with no finish worse than a T-13 dating back to the PGA Tour's BMW Championship.
Lowry's blend of driving distance and precise iron play make him a quality course fit for Torrey Pines. A winning $10 bet at the +3000 odds would return a profit of $300.
Best odds: +3000 via DraftKings | Implied win probability: 3.23%
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Farmers Insurance Open odds favorite 2025
Ludvig Aberg: +900 odds to win the Farmers Insurance Open
Aberg enters this week at No. 6 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), making him the second-ranked golfer in the field. The Swedish star opened his 2025 season with a T-5 finish in The Sentry.
He tied for ninth at Torrey Pines last year in his debut in the Farmers Insurance Open. He struggled around the greens, but his putting was strong and he relied on excellent iron play (1.52 strokes gained: approach per round) and length off the tee.
He's a fine choice in the outright market with a winning $10 bet returning a $90 profit on Saturday evening.
Best odds: +900 via BetMGM | Implied win probability: 10%
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2025 Farmers Insurance Open tournament info
- Where: Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course)
- When: Wednesday, Jan. 22 - Sunday, Jan. 25
- Field: 156
- Favorite: Ludvig Aberg (+900 via BetMGM)
- Purse: $9.3 million
- FedEx Cup points: 500
Farmers Insurance Open betting history
| Year | Winner | Score to par | Odds (prior to Round 1) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Matthieu Pavon | -13 | +12500 |
| 2023 | Max Homa | -13 | +2000 |
| 2022 | Luke List | -15 (playoff) | +6000 |
| 2021 | Patrick Reed | -14 | +2500 |
| 2020 | Marc Leishman | -15 | +5000 |
| 2019 | Justin Rose | -21 | +1400 |
| 2018 | Jason Day | -10 (playoff) | +2000 |
| 2017 | Jon Rahm | -13 | +5000 |
| 2016 | Brandt Snedeker | -6 | +1500 |
| 2015 | Jason Day | -9 | +1200 |
Historical odds via GolfOdds.com.
How to bet on golf
When it comes to golf betting, it's essential to understand the various types of wagers available and how to assess player performance effectively.
- Outright winners
- Each-way bets (which encompass both a win and a top finish)
- Head-to-head matchups
- Proposition bets tailored to specific tournament events, like hole-in-one occurrences or player performances on designated holes
Once you've determined your preferred bet types, conduct thorough research on players, course conditions, recent form, and other pertinent factors that could influence outcomes.
Delve into player statistics, recent tournament performances, course history, and any injuries or changes in form that may impact a player's chances of success.
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