2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks & Odds: Hovland Set for Win with Scheffler as Favorite

Another PGA Tour Signature Event takes place this week with a 69-man field at Bay Hill Club & Lodge as we make our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks based on the odds from our best golf betting sites with Scottie Scheffler as the betting favorite.

Credit to several of our best sports betting sites for releasing early Arnold Palmer Invitational odds ahead of Austin Eckroat's victory in the weather-delayed Cognizant Classic.

The elite 69-man Arnold Palmer Invitational field is fronted by Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, who remain ranked at No. 1 and 2 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), respectively. Kurt Kitayama will attempt to defend his 2023 title at Bay Hill Club & Lodge.

We can expect the results of this week's Signature Event to have a major impact on next week's Players Championship odds.

Here are our Arnold Palmer Invitational picks based on the odds from our best sports betting apps. Don't miss our look at the Puerto Rico Open odds for a rather different field.

Arnold Palmer Invitational picks

• Viktor Hovland to win (+1800 via Caesars)
• Corey Conners to be top Rest of World (+1200 via BetMGM)
• Jordan Spieth to be top American (+1200 via DraftKings)

Arnold Palmer Invitational odds 2024

Arnold Palmer Invitational odds as of Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET

Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions

Viktor Hovland to win (+1800 via Caesars)

Hovland has played the Arnold Palmer Invitational each of the last five years. After three straight finishes between T-40 and T-49 in his first three appearances at Bay Hill, he was a co-runner-up in 2022 and tied for 10th last year. That has him with 1.55 true strokes gained on the field per round.

Hovland is second in this field to Rory McIlroy in strokes gained: off-the-tee over everyone's last 16 rounds. He's been better than McIlroy with his putting stroke, and that's the next-most important trait at this venue.

The fourth-ranked golfer in the OWGR ranked second in last year's Arnold Palmer Invitational field with 1.57 SG: off-the-tee per round but lost strokes with his short game. That aspect of Hovland's game has drastically improved over the past year and has him in excellent form for his first win of 2024.

Caesars odds boost for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

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Corey Conners to be top Rest of World (+1200 via BetMGM)

Conners is seventh by the odds in a top Rest of the World betting market that's largely based on course history at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. Jason Day is the consensus favorite across our best sports betting apps, with odds as low as the +650 offered by BetMGM. That helps us get a market-best price of +1200 via the same book for Conners.

The Canadian's disappointing T-41 finish last week dropped him to No. 52 in the OWGR. However, he remained strong with his irons (including 1.27 SG: tee-to-green per round). His putting stroke let him down.

The putter and short game have been weaknesses of Conners' game this season, but he ranks sixth in this field with 0.70 SG: off-the-tee through his last 15 measured rounds. Again, he'll need to lean on his accuracy with his driver, which has been his biggest strength this season.

Conners followed his third-place finish in this event in 2021 with a T-11 in 2022 and a T-21 last year.

BetMGM promo for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

BetMGM is providing all eligible users in the U.S. with a 25% boost for any one PGA Tour bet this week. This would bring Conners' odds in the top Rest of the World market up from +1200 to +1500. Just click here!

Jordan Spieth to be top American (+1200 via DraftKings)

The presence of tournament favorite Scheffler in this market is helping to inflate the odds for all other top contenders, and that certainly includes Spieth. With Scheffler a +400 favorite to be the top American finisher in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Spieth's odds are propped up to +1200.

Spieth has surprisingly few appearances in this event but has a pair of T-4 results in 2021 and 2023 as he begins his tune-up for the Masters. A short-game wizard, Spieth has gained strokes in all meaningful metrics across his last 15 measured rounds, and he ranks eighth in SG: tee-to-green in that time.

The Texas native also leads the PGA Tour in birdie-or-better percentage from 200-plus yards this season with 28 such scores through 52 holes played with that type of approach shot. That's the key distance at the lengthy Bay Hill.

Who is the Arnold Palmer Invitational favorite?

Scottie Scheffler (+650 via DraftKings)

Still comfortably atop the OWGR, Scheffler opened as the betting favorite for the Arnold Palmer Invitational and carries odds of +650 at DraftKings and bet365, while FanDuel has him priced slightly shorter at +600. Those odds represent an implied win probability of 13.33% in the 69-man field. An equal 1-in-69 chance would equate to a 1.45% win probability.

But Scheffler is clearly the class of the field. The World No. 1 finished in the top 10 of four of his first five events of 2024, with a best result of T-3 in the WM Phoenix Open. He most recently tied for 10th in the Genesis Invitational.

Scheffler has three appearances in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with a victory in 2022 and a T-4 finish last year. His 2.86 true strokes gained on the field per round rank second among everyone with more than four competitive rounds played at Bay Hill.

Scheffler leads all eligible golfers in strokes gained: total since Jan. 1, thanks largely to his exceptional iron play. However, his putter remains his weakness and he lost strokes on the greens of Bay Hill last year as well.

Wait for more of our best sportsbooks to post their Arnold Palmer Invitational odds in hope of more variance in Scheffler's odds, but we aren't likely to see a number better than +750 by Thursday's tournament start.

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Bay Hill Club & Lodge course info

• Par: 72
• Length: 7,466 yards
• Greens: Bermuda
• Architect: Dick Wilson, Frank Hubbard

Arnold Palmer Invitational tournament info

• Where: Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge
• When: Thursday, March 7 - Sunday, March 10
• Field: 69
• 2023 champion: Kurt Kitayama
• Purse: $20 million
• FedEx Cup points: 700

Arnold Palmer Invitational recent winners

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