Best Bets Today: Top Picks, Predictions for Christmas Day 2023

We're rounding up our experts' best bets for the NBA's and NFL's Christmas Day action.

Esten McLaren

Last updated: December 24, 2023 2:50 PM EST • 9 min read

The 2023 Christmas Day slate is one of the best on the entire sports calendar, and we've shopped the odds and lines at our best sports betting sites in search of our best bets.

Christmas Day in 2023 brings a full bag of gifts to sports fans and bettors. The NBA's annual five-game slate is the main attraction while the NFL packs a full-day of content with a tripleheader of standalone games for the second straight year.

Monday's action will get underway at noon ET with an NBA matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and New York Knicks with the NFL slate commencing at 1 p.m. ET with the Las Vegas Raiders visiting the Kansas City Chiefs.

Stay tuned in to the Super Bowl odds and NBA Finals odds as betting action will surely impact both markets throughout the day.

Read on for our best bets today for Christmas Day 2023, based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.

Christmas Day's best bets

NBA (Bucks vs. Knicks): Brook Lopez Over 4.5 rebounds (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NBA (Warriors vs. Nuggets): Stephen Curry Under 27.5 points (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NBA (Celtics vs. Lakers): LeBron James Under 8.5 assists (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
NBA (76ers vs. Heat): Tyrese Maxey Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NBA (Mavericks vs. Suns): Devin Booker 3-plus made 3-pointers (+170 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
NFL (Raiders vs. Chiefs): Patrick Mahomes Under 25.5 completions (-109 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
NFL (Giants vs. Eagles): Tommy DeVito Over 184.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
NFL (Ravens vs. 49ers): 49ers team total Over 26.5 (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Christmas Day's NBA best bets

Brook Lopez Over 4.5 rebounds (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The price for this prop is very expensive at three of the four best live betting sites currently offering this total. DraftKings and bet365 are asking -145, while BetMGM is posting -154. Those prices signal that oddsmakers are confident in Lopez’s Over, so to get this for -128 at FanDuel is great value.

Lopez was a non-factor in Saturday’s game. He finished with just five points, three rebounds, and one assist over 35 minutes. The game ended a streak of three consecutive games with at least five rebounds for Lopez.

Even though he only grabbed three rebounds on Saturday, Lopez has pulled down 16 against the Knicks in 2023-24. He grabbed five and eight during his first two games against them. After a terrible performance, Lopez will go above his average of 4.8 rebounds per game on Monday.

Bucks vs. Knicks NBA player props made by Philip Wood.

Stephen Curry Under 27.5 points (-113 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Christmas Day has not been kind to Curry. He’s scored more than 20 points just once in 10 games on Christmas, making him a great player to fade on one of the NBA’s biggest days. This year, we are again fading Curry.

When these two teams met back in November, Curry scored just 23 points on 6-of-17 shooting. Additionally, all of his made field goals came from beyond the arc. The Nuggets will likely play a similar style in this game, daring the Warriors to beat them with anyone but Curry.

Denver is eighth-best in the league in opponent 3-point percentage, and they’re allowing just 110 points per game. In a tough matchup, expect Curry to fail to hit his season average of 28.3 points.

Warriors vs. Nuggets NBA player props made by Philip Wood.

LeBron James Under 8.5 assists (-102 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

James has dished out at least seven assists in five consecutive games. In four of his last five, he’s recorded at least nine. However, the Celtics are one of the best teams in the league at preventing assists, allowing just 24 per game.

James is averaging 9.5 assists per game this season, but he averaged just 6.3 per contest in November and 6.5 per game in October. If you’re playing well, the Celtics are the perfect team to face to force you back down to or below your season average.

The price for this prop is great. James has been recording a lot of assists of late, but to get this so close to +100 provides great value, especially when considering the matchup.

Celtics vs. Lakers NBA player props made by Philip Wood.

Tyrese Maxey Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (+100 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

While Miami is a generally strong defensive team, the Heat’s strengths don’t include limiting opponents from beyond the 3-point line. The Heat have allowed 13.7 made 3-pointers per game this season, a mark that ranks Miami 22nd in the NBA in the category.

Though Tyrese Maxey averages slightly fewer made threes per game (3.3) than Monday’s line, he has delivered at least four made 3-point shots in each of his last four games while also achieving the feat in six of his past eight contests.

Given that this isn’t an area of concern against what Miami does successfully on defense, Maxey’s 3-point total at even odds on Over 3.5 at both DraftKings and FanDuel is solid value. Avoid bet365 for this prop as its -105 odds on Over 3.5 aren't quite as favorable.

76ers vs. Heat NBA player props made by Brenden Schaeffer.

Devin Booker 3-plus made 3-pointers (+170 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

It’s been a trying period for Devin Booker’s 3-point shooting. The 27-year-old guard is averaging just 1.9 made threes per game, equaling one of the lowest marks of his professional career.

Booker’s 34% rate from 3-point range in December represents a stark drop from 40% in November. But we like the nightcap on Christmas to be a breakout opportunity for Booker with juicy plus-money odds on an achievable line.

Booker is hoisting 5.2 3-point attempts per game in December, so landing a few hits for a +170 return at FanDuel is within the range of outcomes against Dallas’ mediocre perimeter defense. The Mavericks rank a pedestrian 15th in the NBA in 3-pointers allowed per game, giving up 12.9 triples per contest.

Mavericks vs. Suns NBA player props made by Brenden Schaeffer.

View all of our NBA picks and NBA odds.

Christmas Day's NFL best bets

Patrick Mahomes Under 25.5 completions (-109 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

Admittedly, this one is a bit terrifying. I don't love fading Mahomes, especially when it comes to his completions total, as the Chiefs often use short passes as an extension of their running game.

Mahomes has surpassed the 25.5 completions mark in just six of 14 games during 2023, achieving this feat only twice in his last seven games. Notably, one of these instances occurred in a game against the Raiders, placing Mahomes among the exclusive group of five quarterbacks who have managed to exceed 25.5 completions against Las Vegas in the entirety of the season. This statistic underscores the challenge and rarity of surpassing this threshold against the Raiders' defense throughout the year.

That's not the real reason I like this Under, because trends never paint the entire picture.

I'm playing Mahomes' passing completions Under because we're getting a good price with BetRivers, and those odds are showing solid positive expected value when running our projections against them.

Across seven different projection models, Mahomes' average passing completions projection is 24.58. That's roughly one-and-a-half completions below the number he'd have to reach to go Over on this prop.

Based on that projection, we're getting around 11.5% +EV on this bet.

Raiders vs. Chiefs prediction made by Andrew Brennan.

Tommy DeVito Over 184.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Eagles have faced two NFL MVP contenders during their current three-game losing streak, with Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy bombarding them. But the quality of the opponent decreased dramatically during Week 15 against Drew Lock, who made key late-game throws to seal a 20-17 upset win for the Seattle Seahawks, all despite logging just his fifth start since 2020.

The Eagles have coughed up 264.3 passing yards per game during their three-contest slide, which is the first ingredient that leads to optimism DeVito can clear the low passing yards total that four of our best sportsbooks are featuring.

The next is that in the limited sample size of games during the rookie's career so far, DeVito has experienced success against similarly poor secondaries. He posted 246 passing yards against the last-ranked Washington Commanders, and 191 yards while facing the New England Patriots and their middling pass defense (16th).

Even during a dud against the Saints he still flirted with hitting the Over on his Week 16 passing line while finishing with 177 yards. The Giants are highly likely to face a negative game script again as nearly two-touchdown underdogs to the Eagles, meaning DeVito will be throwing plenty against an increasingly weak passing defense.

Factor in all of that, and it's easy to see why a handful of projection models are sitting around 190 yards and favoring DeVito hitting the Over here. ESPN is even way high up while projecting 242 yards.

Giants vs. Eagles prediction made by Sean Tomlinson.

49ers team total Over 26.5 (-115 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the league, and it's a unit that could very well carry them through the AFC and all the way to the Super Bowl this season.

However, they have also shown some warts in recent weeks. I believe the 49ers will take full advantage on the big stage to finish off Purdy's MVP campaign.

Two weeks ago, Matthew Stafford led the Los Angeles Rams to a 31-point effort in an overtime loss to the Ravens. Baltimore hasn't exactly stifled Kevin Stefanski's offense in the past, as the Cleveland Browns scored 33 points against this defense in Week 10.

Kyle Shanahan's 49ers are basically the highest evolution of that offensive system, which is predicated on play-action pass concepts.

Purdy's biggest critics will point to the abundance of offensive weapons he has around him. While there is obviously plenty of truth to that argument, it certainly helps make the case for this wager when Purdy has a supporting cast of Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and Brandon Aiyuk.

Ravens vs. 49ers prediction made by Shane Jackson.

View all of our NFL picks and NFL odds.

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Written By:
Esten McLaren

Esten is the Senior Publishing Editor for SportsbookReview.com. He has been in the sports betting industry since the legalization of mobile sports betting in New Jersey, and with SportsbookReview prior to the launch of sports betting in Ontario. Esten's previous stops include the USA TODAY network, including GolfWeek. He previously worked in the fantasy sports industry, with FNTSY Sports Network, theScore, and USA TODAY. Esten graduated from the College of Sports Media with a diploma in Radio and Television Sports Broadcasting after acquiring a degree in Biological Sciences from the University of Guelph. He has appeared on FNTSY Sports Network, VSiN, and VSiN's Long Shots podcast, where he correctly called Will Zalatoris as the winner of the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. Esten is a big proponent of the entertainment side of sports betting and loves to dip his toes into the novelty and alt-markets while chasing long shots with reduced wagers on golf outrights and futures markets. He's also been known to sprinkle some lunch money on touchdown-scorer parlays with two notable hits still funding his bankroll. Esten looks at sports betting much like golf and advises beginner bettors to compete against themselves rather than being concerned with what others may or may not be doing based on social media claims.