Raiders vs. Chiefs Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 16: Christmas Day
The Kansas City host the Las Vegas Raiders on Christmas Day, and we offer our top Raiders vs. Chiefs prediction based on the best NFL odds at the best sportsbooks.
There's no better way to spend Christmas than watching NFL action all day (unless you ask my wife and parents, who couldn't have been less pleased when I told them what would be on the TV throughout Monday). The fun begins at 1 p.m. ET when the Las Vegas Raiders visit the Kansas City Chiefs.
Now, presumably, most of the gift-giving and receiving will have been completed by the afternoon. Fear not, though, as I have another present for you.
It's going to be a sweaty one, but what would Christmas be if not for constant panic that one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history will simply be good?
Yes, that's right, we're fading Chiefs signal-caller Patrick Mahomes on Christmas Day. Let's hope Jackson gets him involved in too many TikToks the night before.
In addition to our NFL Christmas Day predictions and Raiders-Chiefs props, here are our best Raiders vs. Chiefs prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Raiders vs. Chiefs prediction: Christmas Day
Patrick Mahomes Under 25.5 completions (-109 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐
Admittedly, this one is a bit terrifying. I don't love fading Mahomes, especially when it comes to his completions total, as the Chiefs often use short passes as an extension of their running game.
Mahomes has surpassed the 25.5 completions mark in just six of 14 games during 2023, achieving this feat only twice in his last seven games. Notably, one of these instances occurred in a game against the Raiders, placing Mahomes among the exclusive group of five quarterbacks who have managed to exceed 25.5 completions against Las Vegas in the entirety of the season. This statistic underscores the challenge and rarity of surpassing this threshold against the Raiders' defense throughout the year.
That's not the real reason I like this Under, because trends never really paint the full picture.
I'm playing Mahomes' passing completions Under because we're getting a good price with BetRivers, and those odds are showing solid positive expected value when running our projections against them.
Across seven different projection models, Mahomes' average passing completions projection is 24.58. That's roughly one-and-a-half completions below the number he'd have to reach to go Over on this prop.
Based on that projection, we're getting around 11.5% +EV on this bet.
Additionally, BetRivers' price on the Over is easily the best across our best sports betting apps. FanDuel has the second-best number at -114 after featuring a total of 26.5 for much of Friday. The rest of our best sports betting sites have the Under 25.5 juiced to -130 or shorter.
Pinnacle, one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, opened at -120 on the Under - still a shorter price than the one we're getting now. That number has since moved to -138, the shortest price among any of our best sportsbooks.
This is a three-star bet at the NFL prop betting sites that we're getting better than 10% +EV. FanDuel's 26.5 would have made it a four-star bet, but if you snooze, you lose.
For the best price on this prop, use our exclusive BetRivers bonus code: SBRBONUS!
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Raiders vs. Chiefs best odds
BetRivers (-109)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 | 25.5 |
| -130 | -114 | -135 | -133 | -130 |
This bet continues to emphasize the importance of odds shopping. This goes from one I'd likely leave alone at FanDuel and would definitely not touch at any of our other best sportsbooks to a solid play at BetRivers.
If any of the sites with our best sportsbook promos bump Mahomes' completions total back up to 26.5, make like Santa's reindeer and move faster than you've ever moved before to smash the Under.
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Raiders vs. Chiefs odds
Raiders vs. Chiefs odds analysis
This one opened with the Chiefs as 10-point favorites across most of our best live betting sites, and the spread remains relatively untouched heading into the weekend. You can head to any of our five top sportsbooks to back the Chiefs on the spread, just as many others have. Roughly 61% of the spread action has been on the home favorites.
Regarding the total, there's been a notable divergence in betting, with 82% of the action favoring the Over, currently set at 41 across all our top sportsbooks.
Raiders vs. Chiefs game info
- When: Monday, Dec. 25 at 1 p.m. ET
- Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 40 degrees, 75% chance of precipitation, 11-mph winds
Raiders vs. Chiefs prediction made Friday at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Check out our best NFL betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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