The TCU Horned Frogs and Georgia Bulldogs will clash on Monday night to determine the 2022-23 college football national champion. Read on for our top TCU-Georgia prediction based on the top college football odds.
Both TCU and Georgia won thrillers to get to the College Football Playoff National Championship game. Though defense was hard to come by in the national semifinals, the Bulldogs still boast a unit that allows just 12.8 points per game.
Can the Bulldogs’ defense shut down an offense that just scored 51 points against a Michigan Wolverines team that didn't give up 30 all year? Or are we in for another shootout in which Over props cash at a high rate?
- Kenny McIntosh Over 60.5 rushing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Max Duggan anytime touchdown (+130 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- TCU 31-40 points (+300 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
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Bulldogs running back Kenny McIntosh has been a workhorse for Georgia throughout the season's second half, and this number is simply too low because McIntosh only ran the ball five times last week. Yet, even when the game script removed him from the contest, he finished with 70 rushing yards.
Prior to the national semifinal, McIntosh carried the ball 10 or more times in six consecutive games. During that span, he rushed for at least 50 yards five times. In his last four matchups, he went for 70 or more three times.
McIntosh does work in a split backfield with fellow RBs Daijun Edwards and Kendall Milton, but that hasn't stopped him from putting up fantastic numbers lately. Last week, Wolverines’ back Donovan Edwards went for 119 yards against TCU, and Michigan was playing from behind the whole game. This one should favor plenty of carries for McIntosh.
TCU quarterback Max Duggan scored at least one touchdown in each of his last four games, including two in the national semifinal against Michigan. There's more value in betting on him to score a TD than throw for two or more, and honestly, this is more likely to happen.
Duggan has 32 passing TDs this year, but those numbers are severely skewed by what he did early in the season. Ignoring the matchup against the Colorado Buffaloes where he threw only three passes, Duggan threw two or more touchdowns in his first eight contests in 2022. In the five games that followed, Duggan only did so twice. Even in the Frogs’ rout over Michigan, Duggan didn’t connect on his second TD until 13:07 left. Those were TCU's 48th points.
On the other hand, Duggan had a rushing touchdown in the first quarter, and another late in the third. If the Frogs get on the goal line, then Duggan will score, as he's their top choice in those situations.
TCU Team Total 31-40 Points (+300) ⭐⭐⭐
One very enticing value play is the Horned Frogs to score between 31 and 40 points. This is a range that no team scored within against Georgia this season, but the Dawgs allowed 30 and 41, respectively in their last two games.
Many believe that the Bulldogs’ defense will get back to the dominant unit we saw earlier this season, but that won't be easy against TCU. The Horned Frogs only scored within this range four times this year, but went Over 40 in six of the 10 games where they didn’t land within these numbers. It’s very unlikely they go Over 40 against Georgia. And if they fall behind, they have the firepower to make this a game.
TCU vs. Georgia prop picks made 01/07/2023 at 9:21 a.m. ET.
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