After qualifying for the college football playoff as the No. 3 seed, the TCU Horned Frogs will take on the top-seeded Georgia Bulldogs in the CFP National Championship. Check out below for our best TCU-Georgia college football pick based on the top NCAAF odds.
The Fiesta Bowl simply became the latest chapter in what has been a magical season for TCU (10-3-1 ATS, 8-6 O/U). The Horned Frogs capitalized on a bevy of Michigan miscues early on and successfully thwarted each of the Wolverines’ comeback attempts to score the upset. After starting the year with 200-1 odds to win the National Championship, TCU is now just one win away from doing so.
Georgia (7-7 ATS, 6-8 O/U) got all it could handle and then some from Ohio State in the second semifinal game at the Peach Bowl. Quarterback Stetson Bennett struggled at times but was able to find AD Mitchell for the game-winning touchdown with less than a minute to play. The Bulldogs will now look to become only the second team since the start of the BCS era to win back-to-back national titles.
Here is our best TCU vs. Georgia CFP National Championship pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).
TCU vs. Georgia Game Info
- Date: Monday, Jan. 9, 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
- Weather: Indoors
TCU vs. Georgia Live Odds
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TCU vs. Georgia Odds Analysis
The consensus point spread of Georgia -13 as of Monday afternoon is on par with where most sportsbooks opened the line for the CFP National Championship. Last week, the spread had dipped as low as Bulldogs -12 at some shops.
As we draw closer to kickoff, the public ticket counts have evened out a bit after TCU held a demonstrative advantage early. The Horned Frogs are currently generating 67% of the cash and 63% of the tickets.
After opening up at 64, the game total initially moved to the Under. Some shops listed it as low as 61.5 earlier in the week. Buy-back on the Over has been causing the line to steadily increase, with most shops now once again sitting at 63.5 or 64.
The Over is attracting 60% of the cash and 72% of the tickets.
TCU vs. Georgia Prediction
Georgia -12.5 ⭐⭐⭐
It’s hard to play anything but Georgia. With bettors backing TCU, any appeal that the double-digit underdog might’ve had dried up.
The spread has yet to move all the way back to the opening line at some shops. With the game total already having risen ywo-plus points relative to where we bought the Over earlier in the week, it makes more sense to stick with betting the side at this juncture.
There’s no denying Georgia is the more physically imposing team. TCU will be hard-pressed to slow down the Dawgs’ bruising rushing attack. As the Horned Frogs give up a lot of size in the trenches, they'll have to stack the box with extra defenders. This only helps open things up downfield for Bennett.
On the other side of the ball, TCU should have star running back Kendre Miller return after injuring his knee in the Fiesta Bowl. It's far from given that the Frogs will be successful running the ball. Georgia’s defense allowed only 84.7 rushing yards per game this season, college football's fewest.
It’s also worth considering each team’s semifinal game. TCU barely won despite benefitting from Michigan's countless mistakes. Meanwhile, Georgia was far from perfect and still managed able to overcome Ohio State's near-flawless performance.
At the end of the day, power ratings don’t lie. The Dawgs have personnel advantages at just about every position and are double-digit favorites for a reason.
TCU vs. Georgia Best Odds
|-12.5 (-110)||-12.5 (-115)||-13 (-110)||-12.5 (-110)||-13 (-110)|
Of the books that are offering Georgia -12.5, DraftKings is one of those listing standard -110 odds which is currently the best price in the market.
Given the line moves that have transpired, some might also wish to consider taking the approach of betting an alternate point spread or game total for this matchup. Although this will require bettors to lay extra juice, it could be worthwhile to obtain more favorable lines.
Odds shopping still applies to these alternate game markets. Make sure to compare the prices across all books in order to avoid laying any more juice than is absolutely necessary.
TCU-Georgia CFP National Championship Game picks made on 1/8/2023 at 2 p.m. ET.
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