Michigan State vs. Michigan Prediction: Week 10 Odds, Picks & Best Bet (Nov. 7)
My best Michigan State vs. Michigan prediction focuses on the disastrous offensive play from both teams this season. Michigan State enters with issues at quarterback, as Alessio Milivojevic is questionable after missing the Spartans' last game. Whether he plays or not, finding room to move against Michigan's stout defense seems highly unlikely for Michigan State.
Michigan is favored by 13.5 points ahead of tonight's 7:30 p.m. ET game at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Mich. The game will stream on Peacock.
Michigan State vs. Michigan picks & predictions
See all of our experts' college football picks for Week 10 based on the latest college football odds.
| Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan -13.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 2 units to profit 1.82 units |
| Under 39.5 | -108 via BetMGM | 2.5 units to profit 2.32 units |
Picks submitted: Nov. 5 at 7:30 p.m. ET. Odds subject to change.
Total wagered: 4.5 units | Profit if all picks win: 4.14 units
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Michigan State vs. Michigan prediction & best bet
Check out all of our college football predictions for more analysis across this week's slate.
Under 39.5 (-108 via BetMGM)
Michigan State is averaging just 19.9 points per game. In six games against Big Ten competition and Notre Dame, Michigan State is averaging 15.7 points per game. Michigan State scored more than 21 in just one of those games, and the Spartans have managed 13 or fewer points in three of their five Big Ten competitions.
Michigan is allowing just 16.4 points per game and has held every opponent to 21 or fewer. Michigan ranks third in total yards allowed per game (250.0), fifth in passing yards allowed per game (150.6), and 17th in rushing yards allowed per game (99.38).
Milivojevic is questionable for Michigan State, but even if he plays, he's averaging just 180.4 passing yards per game, and he has just seven passing touchdowns and three interceptions. Still, he gives Michigan State a lot more hope than Leo Hannan or Kayd Coffman, who were a combined 13-of-25 for 109 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions two weeks ago against UCLA.
📡 SBR Edge: Minimal offense expected
Neither of these teams is capable of picking up chunk yardage. Michigan ranks 131st in 10-yard plays, while Michigan State ranks 137th. This is a big part of the reason Michigan ranks 118th in yards per play and Michigan State ranks 135th.
Michigan's offense isn't good enough to hit this Over alone
Michigan ranks 114th nationally in points per game, averaging just 21.3 per contest. The Wolverines have scored more than 21 points only twice all season. Those performances came against UTEP and Rutgers. Both of those defenses rank in the bottom 11 nationally in points allowed per game.
Michigan State is allowing 25.8 points per game. The Spartans have also allowed at least 27 points in their last six games. However, no team has scored more than 31 against them in regulation. And based on how Michigan's offense has played, I don't expect the Wolverines to score more than 30 on Saturday. That means that Michigan State would need to score more than 10 for this Over to hit, which doesn't seem reasonable in this matchup.
Play to: Under 35.5
Score prediction: Michigan 24, Michigan State 6
Live Michigan State vs. Michigan odds
See the latest odds movement and more on our Michigan State vs. Michigan page.
Michigan State vs. Michigan opening odds
- Moneyline: Michigan State +475 | Michigan -650
- Spread: Michigan State +13.5 (-109) | Michigan -13.5 (-111)
- Over/Under: Over 39.5 (-110) | Under 39.5 (-110)
Michigan State vs. Michigan weather
The weather is unlikely to impact this game. Temperatures will get as low as 36 degrees, but there's only a 13% chance of precipitation and wind gusts are expected around 12 mph.
Latest Michigan State vs. Michigan injuries
Michigan State:
- Alessio Milivojevic, QB - Questionable
- Cam Fancher, QB - Out
Michigan:
- Andrew Sprague, OL - Out
- Rod Moore, S - Questionable
How to watch Michigan State vs. Michigan: Week 10
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 7
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Mich.)
- TV/Streaming: Peacock
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