CFP National Championship Betting Trends for TCU vs. Georgia
We're highlighting five betting trends to know for the 2023 CFP National Championship Game. These trends, along with a look at the best college football odds, helped inform our TCU-Georgia prediction.
When the dust finally settled after two of the greatest College Football Playoff semifinals ever, we were left with one of the most unlikely National Championship matchups in history. All eyes will be on SoFi Stadium on Monday when the TCU Horned Frogs clash with the Georgia Bulldogs for the right to become champions of college football.
Like any other major sporting event, it’s always fun to look back on previous National Championship results and see what betting trends (if any) have emerged over the years.
This matchup between TCU and Georgia will be the 25th College Football Championship Game ever and the ninth to take place under the four-team playoff format.
Here is a look at the top historical betting trends to know for the CFP National Championship Game between TCU and Georgia.
Check out our top TCU-Georgia prediction, TCU-Georgia expert picks, best CFP National Championship odds, and top national championship prop picks.
College Football National Championship Betting Trends to Know
Prolonged ATS Streaks for Both Sides
Following a six-year run of betting underdogs covering the spread in the National Championship Game, favorites have won and covered each of the last three years.
Although betting favorites have covered the point spread in each of the last three National Championships, both sides have had their fair share of success over the years. Prior to the favorites’ recent surge, underdogs cashed as ATS winners in six consecutive years. Furthermore, three of those dogs managed to win the title game outright.
Since the very first BCS National Championship Game in the 1998 season, the ATS disparity is about as even as it could get. Underdogs hold a 13-11 ATS advantage over favorites in the 24 title games played to date, with 10 of those 13 dogs also winning outright.
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Points Aplenty in the CFP Era
Since the start of the four-team College Football Playoff in 2014, six of eight National Championship Games have gone Over the total.
If this past weekend’s semifinal matchups are any indication, one has to believe that the recent surge of National Championship Games going Over the betting total could continue next Monday. Oddly enough, this trend has developed despite the Under hitting in the very first year of the College Football Playoff. Perhaps a lofty line of 72.5 was partially to blame.
Following that first CFP National Championship in 2014, six consecutive title games went Over the closing betting total. That streak was broken in last year’s title game when Alabama and Georgia fell one point short of reaching the over/under line of 53.
To further expand on the uptick in scoring, it’s worth noting that the lowest combined point total since the start of the CFP era is 49. In addition, six of the eight previous CFP National Championships have featured a final tally of at least 60 points.
Double-Digit Underdogs Have Thrived
Dating back to the first BCS National Championship Game in 1998, three of four previous double-digit underdogs have covered ATS with two of those dogs winning outright.
The point spread for this year’s National Championship Game is poised to be the biggest ever. No team in the history of the event has closed as more than an 11.5-point favorite. Georgia would also become only the fifth double-digit favorite ever in the title game.
While wagers should never be made solely based on betting trends, history certainly doesn’t favor double-digit favorites. The table below looks back on the four previous National Championship Games that featured spreads of 10 points or more.
|2013-14||Florida State||-11||Auburn||Florida State (34-31)|
|2012-13||Alabama||-10||Notre Dame||Alabama (42-14)|
|2002-03||Miami||-11.5||Ohio State||Ohio State (31-24)|
|2000-01||Florida State||-10.5||Oklahoma||Oklahoma (13-2)|
Outright winners have also covered ATS in 21 of the 24 previous title games.
If history is any indication, it seems wise to assume that the team that wins Monday’s CFP National Championship on the scoreboard will also win at the betting window. Of the two dozen championship games played to date, 21 of the 24 teams that won outright also covered the point spread. For those keeping track, that correlates to a whopping 87.5% cover percentage.
Now, it should be noted that the larger the point spread, the greater the chance of the underdog covering but failing to win on the field. With Georgia currently laying just shy of two touchdowns, could this year’s Natty buck the trend of outright winners cashing ATS?
SEC teams have won 12 of the last 16 National Championships.
Fans of any team outside of the Southeastern Conference are undoubtedly familiar with the concept of SEC Fatigue. As angry as it makes some people, the SEC has continually proven itself to be the top conference in the country year after year. Collectively, the SEC has won 12 of the 16 championships that have been contested since 2007.
Even the arrival of the College Football Playoff hasn’t been able to prevent the SEC from flexing its muscles. The conference has won the title in each of the last three years and four of the last five overall.
It’s also worth noting that if the Bulldogs emerge victorious, they will become only the second repeat champion ever since college football began playing a national title game. It likely comes as no surprise that the other team to win back-to-back title also hails from the SEC. Alabama accomplished the feat in the 2012 and 2013 BCS National Championship Games.
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