Navy vs. Air Force Prediction, Picks & Odds: Week 6
The race for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy begins on Saturday, with Navy squaring off against Air Force at noon ET.
- Air Force has taken each of its last four meetings with Navy
- Just 19 unbeaten FBS teams remain, and Navy is in that group
- The Midshipmen's yearly average win total from 2020 to 2023 has already been matched
Our Navy vs. Air Force prediction looks at what will lead to the Midshipmen ending their losing streak to the Falcons. They can also cover a significant spread.
I broke this game down further in my Navy vs. Air Force player props.
Best Navy vs. Air Force picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Navy -9.5 (-120 via FanDuel) vs. Air Force ⭐⭐⭐
- Over/Under pick: Under 37 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Navy vs. Air Force against the spread prediction: Week 6
Navy to cover the spread: - 9.5 (-120) ⭐⭐⭐
Navy vs. Air Force opening odds:
- Navy: -9 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Air Force: +9 (-110 via BetMGM)
Navy can cover despite low total
Navy is a 10-point favorite at most of our best sports betting apps. I am backing the Midshipmen with a speculative three stars of confidence, as just six of the previous 15 games between service academies over the last five seasons have been decided by double digits.
Navy has won just one Commander-in-Chief’s game over the last four years. Still, the combination of this being one of the Midshipmen’s strongest teams in recent years and one of the weakest Air Force squads says this big spread — despite being the only game with a total in the 30s — is justified.
Navy’s offensive numbers are among the nation's best
Navy ranks outside the top 90 in drives per game (11.2) because of its methodical triple-option style, which grinds out possessions. However, the Midshipmen are efficient, ranking ninth in scoring at 46.0 points per game despite those limited possessions.
Quarterback Blake Horvath led the team to touchdowns on the first four drives of last week’s dominating win over UAB. And the fact that he leads the country in Total QBR gives the Midshipmen offense an added dimension they have not had in quite some time.
Air Force one of the worst offenses in the country
For as good as Navy’s offense is, Air Force’s is equally bad. The Falcons had to replace the offensive line with five new starters, and between new players at quarterback, fullback, running back, and tight end, almost all of their skill position players made their first collegiate starts in the first month of the season.
Air Force has punted or turned the ball over on 75.6% of its 45 drives this season. Six of its 45 drives have ended in touchdowns, and two were aided by turnovers that set the Falcons up on their opponents’ side of the field.
Those offensive woes are one reason why the Under on Air Force's team total is featured as part of my college football Week 6 predictions & best bets.
This spread bet becomes a much less appealing play at -10 or higher, given how few possessions this game figures to have. Thus, it is worth paying the extra juice (-120) at FanDuel to back Navy at -9.5, where a $10 winning wager would pay out $18.33 as part of our Week 6 college football predictions.
Best odds: -120 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.55%
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Navy vs. Air Force prop pick for Week 6
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Under 37 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
This point total is up a half-point from when we supported the Under with our Navy vs. Air Force early picks, which is surprising given the trends in games involving service academies.
Since 2005, Unders have cashed at an 82% clip (45-10-2) when the three service academies (Army, Air Force, and Navy) play each other.
In last year’s meeting (a 17-6 Air Force win), the Falcons held the Midshipmen to 3-of-17 on third down, while Navy limited an explosive Air Force offense that had scored 30 or more points in five of its seven prior games.
This year, the Midshipmen defense is third in the country in the red zone, allowing opponents to score points on just 71% of their red zone opportunities.
And while Navy’s offense has nine touchdown drives of one minute or less this year (tied for sixth-most in the country), an Air Force defense that is well-versed in defending the triple option should make the Midshipmen offense move more methodically down the field.
I am still backing the Under with a three-star play despite the line moving in the direction of the Over, and I would also strongly consider backing the second-half Under if Navy races out to a two-score lead by halftime.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Navy vs. Air Force odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Navy vs. Air Force game info
- When: Saturday, Oct. 5
- Kickoff: Noon ET
- Where: Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs, Colo.
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 81 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 7 mph SE
- Favorite: Navy -10 (-115 via BetMGM)
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