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Navy vs. Air Force Early Picks, Predictions & Odds Week 6

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 30, 2024 10:19 AM EDT • 3 min 3 sec read.

Navy Midshipmen quarterback Blake Horvath throws on the run during the first half as we offer our Navy vs. Army early leans.
Navy Midshipmen quarterback Blake Horvath throws on the run during the first half. Photo by Tommy Gilligan via Imagn Images

The first leg of the Commander-in-Chief’s takes place between Navy and Air Force from Falcon Stadium on Saturday afternoon, with Navy as the clear favorite at our best college football betting sites. 

  • Air Force has won the last four meetings
  • Air Force is 34-22 all-time vs. Navy
  • Navy is looking to keep its College Football playoff hopes alive as the Group of Five representative

Our Navy vs. Air Force early leans and picks for Week 6 analyze one of the best college football rivalries between these service academies as part of our college football Week 6 predictions.

My early Navy vs. Air Force prediction

College football picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Prediction: Under 36.5

Best odds: -110 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.38%

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One of the most widely recognized trends in college football betting is that games between service academies tend to be low-scoring.

Since 2003, Unders in games involving two service academies are 50-11-3. And with oddsmakers knowing that they have been vulnerable to this trend in the past, they have adjusted the totals accordingly of late, with last year’s Army-Navy total kicking off at 28 points.

The weather will not be as bad as it usually is in the first week of December for that Army-Navy game, but this is still a matchup of two triple-option teams that play low-possession games and grind the clock.

Navy has scored 10 or fewer points in five of the last six meetings with Air Force, while the Falcons have struggled mightily offensively this year, averaging 9.7 points per game in their three losses.

Don't miss our guide for how to bet on college football or this week's best sportsbook promos.

Navy vs. Air Force live odds

See the college football odds from our best college football betting sites for every Week 6 game.

Moneyline

  • Navy best odds: -345 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 77.53%
  • Air Force best odds: +275 via FanDuel  | Implied probability: 28.99%

Navy opened as -300 moneyline favorites with Air Force as +240 underdogs, but the price on the Midshipmen rose given their dominant performance last week.

Navy beat UAB 41-18 as 5.5-point road favorites, while Air Force lost 31-19 as 4.5-point road favorites at Wyoming.

Despite Air Force’s recent dominance in this rivalry, having won four straight games, most will argue that there is a big talent gap. Navy is 4-0, and thus, the Midshipmen’s odds may not be done rising before kickoff.

Spread

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering as low as -8.5, and all other sportsbooks are at -9.

Air Force covered the spread in three of the previous four meetings between these teams, but Navy is one of the few unbeaten ATS teams left in FBS (4-0 ATS).

I expect Navy backers to weigh in early and drive this number at least to -9.5. But if the line ever gets to -10, we will likely hear from the underdog supporters, especially with the Air Force playing at home.

Over/Under

  • Over best odds: 35.5 (-110) via BetMGM
  • Under best odds: 36.5 (-110) via FanDuel

BetMGM is on its own with a total of 35.5, as the O/U at all the other top sports betting sites is a point higher at 36.5.

BetMGM is likely lower than its competition, knowing the support for the Under will come. Given the trend of Unders between service academies, more sportsbooks will likely end up at 35.5 or lower before kickoff.

How to watch Navy vs. Air Force

  • When: Saturday, Oct. 5
  • Kickoff: Noon ET
  • Where: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, Colo.)
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: 79 degrees, 20% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph SE
  • Favorite: Navy -8.5 (-108 via DraftKings)

College football odds pages

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Heisman Trophy OddsBig Ten OddsPac-12 Odds
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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”