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Navy vs. Air Force Player Prop Bet Odds & Touchdown Picks: Heidenreich To Continue Touchdown Streak

Mike Spector

Last Updated: October 4, 2024 10:00 AM EDT • 4 min 2 sec read.

Navy Midshipmen wide receiver Eli Heidenreich catches a pass against the Army Black Knights during the second half of the Army-Navy Game as we look at our Navy vs. Air Force Player Prop Bet Odds & Touchdown Picks.
Navy Midshipmen wide receiver Eli Heidenreich catches a pass against the Army Black Knights during the second half of the Army-Navy Game. Photo Danny Wild/Imagn Images.

The Commander in Chief’s Trophy is one of the most coveted titles in college football, and the first leg takes place on Saturday afternoon when the Air Force Falcons host the Navy Midshipmen.

  • Air Force is 5-1 in its last six meetings with Navy, including four straight wins
  • The Falcons have won six consecutive home games against Navy since 2012
  • The Midshipmen have relied on an efficient offense to be one of the remaining 19 unbeaten FBS teams.

Our Navy vs. Air Force player prop bet odds and touchdown picks make the case for a Midshipmen player to score for a fifth straight week. We also expect a Falcons running back to regress after a career-best game as part of our college football Week 6 predictions.

I'm favoring the Under in this clash as part of my Navy vs. Air Force prediction, too.

Navy vs. Air Force college football player prop bets: Saturday

Odds as of Friday and subject to change.

College football picks made Friday; odds subject to change. Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Navy vs. Air Force touchdown pick

Eli Heidenreich anytime touchdown scorer (+110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Eli Heidenreich is listed as a running back for Navy, but he's been more of a receiver while logging 15 catches on the season and just 14 carries.

Heidenreich has registered more than four carries in a game just once this season, but that matters little for this wager. He's still found the end zone five times this campaign (and at least once in every game) through a receiving touchdown.

The pass-catcher comes with home-run potential in this explosive Navy offense, as four of his five touchdowns have covered 20-plus yards. He's also recorded at least one 39-plus-yard reception in all four games this season.

With this game getting a total of 37 points (the lowest of any Week 6 contest), one would normally not gravitate toward anytime touchdown scorer odds. But Heidenreich is as good a bet as any to find the end zone. And we're getting great value, as he's receiving the second-best odds in this game to score (Navy quarterback Blake Horvath is receiving the shortest odds). 

Heidenreich’s implied probability to find the end zone is as high as 50% based on DraftKings’ +100 odds. But the better value is at FanDuel, where a $10 winning wager would net $11 in profit.

Best odds: +110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 47.62%

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Best Navy vs. Air Force prop bets

Blake Horvath Over 123.5 passing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

In most years, it would be blasphemous to back a service academy quarterback to go Over a projected passing yards total this high since those teams lean heavily on the triple option.

However, Horvath has attempted double-digit passes in three of four games this season. His passing yards total has gone up each week, from 108 yards in the opening game to a career-high 225 yards last week.

If Air Force loads up defensively to stop the triple option, Horvath should hit some significant passing plays. Navy ranks first among all FBS schools in yards per completion (21.0) and passing efficiency (219.7). And we know it won’t shoot itself in the foot offensively, as the team's four interceptions thrown are tied for the third-fewest in the country.

DraftKings’ line for Horvath to throw for 124-plus yards is juiced to -115, so FanDuel offers a slightly better number for this prop. A $10 winning wager would pay out $18.77.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Cade Harris Under 23.5 rushing yards (-114) ⭐⭐⭐

Falcons running back Cade Harris made a name for himself as a pass-catcher last week, hauling in a career-high five catches for 106 yards. He became the first Falcon to go over 100 receiving yards since David Cormier did it against Navy in 2022.

Air Force ran for a season-high 205 yards last week, and its previous high watermark was 193. However, quarterback John Busha is getting a higher projected rushing total than Harris (O/U 32.5). And the Falcons have turned the ball over or punted on 75.6% of their 45 possessions, so they're not fielding the ball-control offense we're used to seeing in the past. 

This is a three-star play, as Navy’s defense is built to stop the triple option after practicing against it every day. Also, Navy's efficient offense that's averaging 46 points per matchup on 11.2 possessions per outing should force Air Force out of its comfort zone, making the Falcons pass more than they would like.

If you're looking for another way to fade Air Force's offense, I broke down their team total as part of my college football Week 6 predictions & best bets.

Best odds: -114 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 53.27%

Navy vs. Air Force odds

See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.

Navy vs. Air Force game info

  • When: Saturday, Oct. 5
  • Kickoff: Noon ET 
  • Where: Falcon Stadium (Colorado Springs, Colo.)
  • How to watch: CBS
  • Weather: 82 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 9-mph southerly winds
  • Favorite: Navy -9.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”