Baylor vs. Colorado Prediction, Tonight: Picks & Odds for Week 4
Deion Sanders' Colorado program hosts Baylor at Folsom Field in their Big 12 opener.
- As part of our part of our college Week 4 predictions, our Baylor vs. Colorado prediction expects the Bears to be feisty in Boulder
- Although neither team is a College Football Playoff odds contender right now, a win could help in the wide-open Big 12
- Both Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders need to have big performances to stay alive in the Heisman Trophy odds
This is Colorado’s first Big 12 game in 14 years after they left the conference to join the Pac-12. With this being such a significant game, we dove even deeper into it with our Baylor vs. Colorado player props and Shedeur Sanders player prop bets.
Baylor vs. Colorado odds movement
Baylor opened as a 1-point favorite at our college football betting sites. But the line has swung the other way with Colorado being favored by as many as two points before the line settled in at Buffaloes -1.
The Bears have 54% of the money on them covering, with just 46% on Colorado. The Over has 61% of the money, with the total hovering around 51.5.
Best Baylor vs. Colorado picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Against the spread pick: Baylor +2 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Colorado ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Player prop pick: Travis Hunter Under 94.5 receiving yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Baylor vs. Colorado against the spread prediction: Week 4
Baylor to cover the spread: +2 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Baylor vs. Colorado opening odds:
- Baylor: +1 (-110 via BetMGM)
- Colorado: -1 (-110 via BetMGM)
This spread has had a slight case of reverse line movement, shifting from Baylor +1 to +2 despite the Bears receiving 60% of wagers.
That is likely because of the uncertainty surrounding Bears quarterback Dequan Finn’s injury status (he is currently listed as a “co-starter”). Still, the underdogs should be fine, even if forced to play their backup quarterback.
Baylor can overcome a quarterback injury
Sawyer Robertson was under center for Baylor against Air Force as Finn was out with a shoulder injury.
Robertson completed 75% of his passes and had an 86.9 passing grade per PFF. That was his second straight start with a high passing grade, as he scored a 91.9 in last year’s regular-season finale against West Virginia after completing 89.5% of his passes.
Colorado has its share of injuries, too
Baylor’s quarterback situation is not the only injury to monitor this week.
Colorado running back Dallan Hayden (Ohio State transfer), the team’s leading rusher in the first two games, missed last week’s game against Colorado State with an injury.
In addition, the Buffaloes’ defensive line depth will be tested, as Chidozie Nwankwo is questionable with an AC joint injury, and fellow defensive lineman Taurean Carter has already been ruled out.
Bad weather favors the Bears
The early forecasts in Boulder on Saturday night call for a 90% chance of rain. While Colorado’s offense is predicated on speed and quarterback Shedeur Sanders’ arm, it will likely have to try and be more balanced in the poor weather, and a 56.3 rushing yard per game average through three games won't cut it.
Conversely, Colorado ranks 90th in EPA/Rush Allowed, so Baylor has the more clear path to a big day on the ground, especially with the cohesion of having 10 starters on offense returning from last year.
Reverse line movement, as has happened for this game, typically suggests sharp action.
However, with this movement likely more indicative of Baylor’s quarterback situation, I am backing the Bears regardless of who is under center.
With several of our top sports betting sites a half-point lower at +1.5, I am taking advantage of the +2 at the standard -110 juice at Caesars, where a winning $10 wager would profit $9.09.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Baylor vs. Colorado prop pick for Week 4
Our NEW college football player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Pick (-115) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Travis Hunter has totaled 100-plus receiving yards in all three games this season.
However, his yardage has decreased in three consecutive weeks while his receptions have consistently increased, with teams adjusting to give him underneath routes while limiting his big-play ability.
Hunter had only one game last season where his yards per reception average was worse than last week’s 7.7.
Baylor also returns all four starters in the secondary from last year’s squad that allowed just 236.4 passing yards per game.
The Bears rank third this year in EPA/Pass Allowed, largely because of a top-50 pass rush (per PFF) that should wreak havoc on a Buffaloes offensive line that allows Sanders to get hit way too much.
There is a big difference between bet365’s O/U of 94.5 yards and FanDuel’s O/U of 90.5 yards, so I am taking advantage of the best price and number at bet365.
A winning $10 wager would net $8.70 in profits.
Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Baylor vs. Colorado odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
Baylor vs. Colorado game info
- When: Saturday, Sept. 21
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Folsom Field (Boulder, Colo)
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: 55 degrees, 90% chance of precipitation, wind 9 mph NW
- Favorite: Colorado (-125 via BetMGM)
College football betting odds pages
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- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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