EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #911
    I hope so bro. Would be a good end to the day after Bellucci's ankle ate up my profits. Fernan-DONT!
    Comment
    • 757sFinest
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 09-23-10
      • 885

      #912
      What do you think about Kendrick/Monfils? Does Kendrick have a chance at scoring and keeping inside the +4 line or is Monfils going to blow him out? Thinking about maybe playing the under 22 as well.
      Comment
      • EaglesPhan36
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 12-06-06
        • 71662

        #913
        I'd actually lean a little to the over. First, the juice is on the under at -130 and once it gets that far out of whack or higher, I tend to like going opposite of the chalk ... plus, power servers tend to give him a little trouble on this surface based on past results. If you look back through 2010, most of the guys with solid serves at least took a set or made Monfils work hard on this surface. It's all based on what you think Kendrick can do. Only shaky thing is Kendrick can go from being solid on-serve to shit pretty quick, but he does look like he's matched up well with Monfils on quicker surfaces. I think Monfils will win, but I don't doubt that he might have to work for it if Kendrick is 100%.
        Comment
        • 757sFinest
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 09-23-10
          • 885

          #914
          The line has moved to four and a half now. I think I am going to have to pass I guess. I feel Monfils will win as well but just unsure on Kendrick.
          Comment
          • EaglesPhan36
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-06-06
            • 71662

            #915
            More juice on the under. Since I'm bored and about to lose on Karlovic who fukked up at the end of both sets to lose 7-5, 7-5, going on the over at +110.
            Comment
            • Mikail
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 07-19-09
              • 21689

              #916
              Important question. Can anyone give me some info on Bernard Tomic vs Ivo Klec? The match was scheduled for 8:15pm est. but apparently is now going to start at 6:30 am est. Is there anyway I can find information on this match? It's a Challenger match in Caloundra.
              Comment
              • Glitch
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 07-08-09
                • 11795

                #917
                Originally posted by Mikail
                Important question. Can anyone give me some info on Bernard Tomic vs Ivo Klec? The match was scheduled for 8:15pm est. but apparently is now going to start at 6:30 am est. Is there anyway I can find information on this match? It's a Challenger match in Caloundra.
                7-5 2-6 6-1 victory for tomic

                6-1 6-2 win for ebden

                Bernard Tomic and Matt Ebden will face off in an all-Aussie semifinal after both rising stars won their respective…


                had to do some digging for this one.
                Comment
                • Mikail
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 07-19-09
                  • 21689

                  #918
                  Originally posted by Glitch
                  7-5 2-6 6-1 victory for tomic

                  6-1 6-2 win for ebden

                  Bernard Tomic and Matt Ebden will face off in an all-Aussie semifinal after both rising stars won their respective…


                  had to do some digging for this one.
                  Much appreciated Glitch. Seriously! Thanks man!
                  Comment
                  • BathingApe
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 08-18-10
                    • 846

                    #919
                    I put $30 on Kendrick for the hell of it. He looks like he's playing pretty solid to start. Let's see how he holds though.
                    Comment
                    • rumple
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-19-07
                      • 2499

                      #920
                      losing 6-2 in the first set is solid?
                      Comment
                      • EaglesPhan36
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 12-06-06
                        • 71662

                        #921
                        ATP ROTTERDAM: BERDYCH -130
                        Tsonga & Berdych in what should be a real barn burner. Both have been solid this week and had to work hard in their last matches to put away solid opponents. Tsonga beat Llodra in 3. Berdych downed Tursunov who is in good form to start the year. There's really not a ton to separate the two. Tsonga does have a better record on this surface, but neither was a big performer on this surface in 2010. The difference this week to me seems to be that Berdych's serve has been just a bit more solid and more difficult to return and I THINK he's also in the better form at this point. Tsonga looked tired in his loss to Dolgopolov in Melbourne and outclassed against Federer in Doha. Berdych's losses came to the in-form player in Djokovic in Melbourne [horrible match-up career wise with Djokovic] and the in-form player in Wawrinka in Chennai, when Wawrinka was hot and at a tournament the Swiss has owned recently. Berdych has only offered one break point in two matches and in general this year, when he's played well and won he's been real tough to break. Tsonga's not the strongest returner, so if Berdych remains "on" with his serve, I THINK we'll see tight sets where break points or tie breaks will be key. I don't THINK you can go wrong with either selection here as this is close to a toss-up, but for me, Berdych gets the nod.
                        Comment
                        • BathingApe
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 08-18-10
                          • 846

                          #922
                          Originally posted by rumple
                          losing 6-2 in the first set is solid?
                          That post was after the first 4 games

                          Crap, he had a chance to take the second set already. Oh well, looks like it's going tiebreak.

                          *edit

                          Kendrick takes the second set I hope he can hang in there. What was the o/u anyway?
                          Comment
                          • Brian891
                            SBR MVP
                            • 04-28-10
                            • 2049

                            #923
                            he took it. good call on the over by ep. how is monfils 12th in the world? he blows! got broken at 6-5.
                            Comment
                            • EaglesPhan36
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 12-06-06
                              • 71662

                              #924
                              And that's how you make money betting totals - don't ever lay big juice on the O/U. Going to a 3rd set, plus money win on the total. These are things to watch during the season IMO. At 5Dimes, I have noticed once the chalk goes heavy -135 or more in one direction, taking the plus money on the opposite play has been quite profitable the times I can recall. Going to start tracking this for the ones I noticed to see if it really holds true. I think anywhere between -110 and -130 it's not an indicator of one way or the other necessarily. See yooze guys in the morning.
                              Comment
                              • BathingApe
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 08-18-10
                                • 846

                                #925
                                ugh, he got broken on the first game....
                                Comment
                                • beefcake
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-26-09
                                  • 14029

                                  #926
                                  Nice call on the over EP! I agree on those juiced totals..Although with my totals system i have to eat the juice, since Im playing the prices of the match in figuring out all those unders. If past performance holds true were due for a big run here.
                                  Comment
                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-06-06
                                    • 71662

                                    #927
                                    Berdych bet cancelled as he withdraws. Guess I finally got lucky!
                                    Comment
                                    • beefcake
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 11-26-09
                                      • 14029

                                      #928
                                      Comment
                                      • beefcake
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-26-09
                                        • 14029

                                        #929
                                        Wow huge price on youzhny considering his past success there..A stab?"
                                        Comment
                                        • beefcake
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 11-26-09
                                          • 14029

                                          #930
                                          And a battle of our boys Berankis and Raonic,,care for a friendly point wager? 7 years from now when they meet in the US Open final we can say it started right here.
                                          Comment
                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-06-06
                                            • 71662

                                            #931
                                            Probably pass on that one beef. Berankis has been far from his best this week. I think Raonic will beat him.
                                            Comment
                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 12-06-06
                                              • 71662

                                              #932
                                              ATP ROTTERDAM: TROICKI -113
                                              Watched the line here and the money has come to Troicki turning him into the favorite in this match after he opened as the short dog. There's not much to differentiate these two. Both have been strong this week. Many are going to come away impressed with Cilic's dismantling of Melzer, but there's been speculation about the validity of that one with a lot of late money coming on Cilic and the end result with Melzer looking a bit disinterested and lost on court. In any case, I THINK Troicki does rate a shot today. The head-2-head will lead more to Cilic, but consider two of the wins were in his home country with one in a Davis Cup setting. The last two meetings that were on neutral sites saw Troicki beat Cilic last summer and saw Cilic win a three set, all tie break affair on an indoor court in Basel in 2009. Troicki played well on this surface to end 2010 with a title in Moscow and a semifinal appearance in Basel. Cilic has been lukewarm on the surface since his Zagreb title last year, going 9-6 in that span with two wins coming this week. Won't be any surprises here with their history, so any result could happen. Following the money, I THINK maybe that's right?
                                              Comment
                                              • 757sFinest
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 09-23-10
                                                • 885

                                                #933
                                                Originally posted by beefcake
                                                And a battle of our boys Berankis and Raonic,,care for a friendly point wager? 7 years from now when they meet in the US Open final we can say it started right here.
                                                Good morning all. Its a liitle late in the morning but my soon to be brother in law calls at 4 this morning freaking out saying he just goa a call from his national guard unit saying they are sending hhim back to iraq as soon as he graduates college. So I didn't get much sleep last night. Any ways good call EP on the over. Thanks for all your help this week, I have always been a tennis fan but never wagered on it until ten days ago. Now I'm watching as many matches as I can a day. Beefcake who ya got Berankis or Raonic? I'm might throw a little down with ya.
                                                Comment
                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                  • 71662

                                                  #934
                                                  2.11.11 DEUCE: ALMAGRO + RAONIC [+136]
                                                  Almagro draws Chela in Brazil today. Almagro has been dominant in his two matches here despite troubles getting his 1st serve in. He's been a model of consistency on clay over the past year with a remarkable 30-11 mark. He won two clay titles and made the French quarters last year. His form to start this year has been solid, yet unspectacular as much of his hard court game goes. He made the 4th round in Melbourne & the semis in Auckland. Chela cruised yesterday against Bellucci, but that must be taken with a grain of salt after the Brazilian rolled his ankle early in the match and never really got going after that. Prior to that, Chela churned through two three set matches in route to today's match. History shows competitive matches between these two and I do expect Chela can challenge today, but if Almagro can correct some of his 1st serve issues, he's got the ability to dominate on-serve and that's something Chela does not possess from match-to-match. Raonic draws Berankis in a battle of the next generation of ATP stars. Advantage Raonic without a doubt today and I am a big proponent of the Lithuanian Berankis. Berankis though has not been at his best this week, especially struggling to put away Donald Young yesterday. He only converted four of 16 break opps from Young, something he won't get from Raonic today. Berankis has also had to save a boatload of his own break opps, 15 offered and 12 saved. That's flirting with disaster though against someone like Raonic who is likely to dominate with his serve and pressure Berankis to be perfect on his. Some may point to Raonic's loss to Greul in South Africa which came out of nowhere as a chance for Berankis today and that's always a possibility, but the faster indoor surface should do nothing but amplify the bigger game of Raonic and if his serve remains stout, he will be difficult to beat.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • 757sFinest
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 09-23-10
                                                    • 885

                                                    #935
                                                    Troicki has now moved to -120
                                                    Comment
                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                      • 71662

                                                      #936
                                                      Pretty significant move now on him. We'll see if this movement is right.

                                                      Shocker ... Dolgopolov line has moved about 30 cents now.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • 757sFinest
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 09-23-10
                                                        • 885

                                                        #937
                                                        $50.00 FP*$161.76
                                                        Pending3 Team Parlay
                                                        Pending2/11/11 4:00pm ATP Tennis 114 Milos Raonic -170* vs Richard Berankis
                                                        Pending2/11/11 2:45pm ATP Tennis 207 Viktor Troicki -120* vs Marin Cilic
                                                        Pending2/11/11 4:00pm ATP Tennis 301 Nicolas Almagro -220* vs Juan Ignacio Chela.

                                                        Throwdown a little freeplay on this one.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Mikail
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 07-19-09
                                                          • 21689

                                                          #938
                                                          Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                          ATP ROTTERDAM: TROICKI -113
                                                          Watched the line here and the money has come to Troicki turning him into the favorite in this match after he opened as the short dog. There's not much to differentiate these two. Both have been strong this week. Many are going to come away impressed with Cilic's dismantling of Melzer, but there's been speculation about the validity of that one with a lot of late money coming on Cilic and the end result with Melzer looking a bit disinterested and lost on court. In any case, I THINK Troicki does rate a shot today. The head-2-head will lead more to Cilic, but consider two of the wins were in his home country with one in a Davis Cup setting. The last two meetings that were on neutral sites saw Troicki beat Cilic last summer and saw Cilic win a three set, all tie break affair on an indoor court in Basel in 2009. Troicki played well on this surface to end 2010 with a title in Moscow and a semifinal appearance in Basel. Cilic has been lukewarm on the surface since his Zagreb title last year, going 9-6 in that span with two wins coming this week. Won't be any surprises here with their history, so any result could happen. Following the money, I THINK maybe that's right?
                                                          I think Troicki is the right play here. Gonna make a play on him too. Like the write up.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 12-06-06
                                                            • 71662

                                                            #939
                                                            2.11.11 TOTALS TRACKER

                                                            This is the idea I threw out last night and I used it quite a bit last season. When the juice goes heavy on one side of the OVER-UNDER, go opposite the "public play" and take the plus odds play. Going to track it to see if it holds form for a long period of time. For the purposes here, anything that goes to -135 or higher will be played oppo!

                                                            CLIJSTERS-DOKIC UNDER 18.5 [+115]
                                                            SODERLING-YOUZHNY OVER 22 [+105]

                                                            As this is an experiment, you should probably do your own research here and not rely solely on my premise as it is not a proven winner due to a lack of tracking.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • 757sFinest
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 09-23-10
                                                              • 885

                                                              #940
                                                              Like the idea. I will be tracking as well. Almagro has gone up to -250.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • sharlataans
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 08-13-10
                                                                • 1927

                                                                #941
                                                                Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

                                                                CLIJSTERS-DOKIC UNDER 18.5 [+115]
                                                                SODERLING-YOUZHNY OVER 22 [+105]
                                                                Works like a charm!!!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                                  • 71662

                                                                  #942
                                                                  Totals Tracker: 2-0 [+2.20]

                                                                  Very nice.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • 757sFinest
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 09-23-10
                                                                    • 885

                                                                    #943
                                                                    NICE, so far so good on totals!! Youz put up a good match though.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                                      • 71662

                                                                      #944
                                                                      Almagro


                                                                      Way to win a game limp dick. Looks like maybe he's mad now, hopefully that helps but damn you are getting killed son.

                                                                      Troicki playing from behind this whole set, flirting with disaster.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • beefcake
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 11-26-09
                                                                        • 14029

                                                                        #945
                                                                        Jesus,, Nicholas is playing like St. Nick..Wake the F up and dont lose to this old timer!

                                                                        Raonic..
                                                                        Comment
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