EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

[shari91]

did this shit happened last year as well?

Yeah. I'd have to go back and look at which matches were particularly bad last year but it happens every year. It's like a bad cliche - all the mobsters that play around with matches once in awhile throughout the year, all come out at once this week. And then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy: Because these tourneys are so small, it doesn't take a lot of money to move the line at most books. All you need is one over-eager forum member to think they're spotting a fix because of some innocent line movement, and then word has spread across multiple forums causing the price to plummet even more as people pile on. It's a mess.

[Boxing Champ]

Yeah. I'd have to go back and look at which matches were particularly bad last year but it happens every year. It's like a bad cliche - all the mobsters that play around with matches once in awhile throughout the year, all come out at once this week. And then it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy: Because these tourneys are so small, it doesn't take a lot of money to move the line at most books. All you need is one over-eager forum member to think they're spotting a fix because of some innocent line movement, and then word has spread across multiple forums causing the price to plummet even more as people pile on. It's a mess.

That;s awesome.. I bet all these mobsters start licking their chops 2 weeks before
the tournament..They probably circle this week with Green marker on their calendar...

[mlfan]

is there a free site that monitors tennis line movement?

[Boxing Champ]

is there a free site that monitors tennis line movement?

This site is the shit....for all sports

http://www.betbrain.com/tennis/luxembourg/wta-luxembourg-singles/monica-niculescu-v-karin-knapp/#!/history/

[shari91]

And watch Betfair. That's where you're going to see it as that's where the money is going to hit first the majority of the time. When you start seeing cash pile in on set betting props and big money (relatively speaking considering the size of the tourneys this week) start coming in on a player, you can pretty much guarantee something dodgy is going on.

[Boxing Champ]

And watch Betfair. That's where you're going to see it as that's where the money is going to hit first the majority of the time. When you start seeing cash pile in on set betting props and big money (relatively speaking considering the size of the tourneys this week) start coming in on a player, you can pretty much guarantee something dodgy is going on.

Thanks..Shari.... I can never understand one thing...
BetFair has "Lay" and "Back".....what is that???

[sharlataans]

Pervak game is fixed, but on which side?

Usually Pervak loses in fixed games, but this time I think she wins

[sharlataans]

$2 000 000 already matched on Betfair on this game. I took Pervak small just for fun

[Boxing Champ]

Because Voskoboeva is from Kazakhstan..one of the poorest 3rd world countries...
Money that it would cost for Pervak to throw the game can feed
whole Voskoboeva's village for a month....

They would rather pay Vosko to throw the match....

Maybe we can bet against the player that is cheapest to buy out of the 2..next time

[Boxing Champ]

Thanks..Shari.... I can never understand one thing...
BetFair has "Lay" and "Back".....what is that???

Can someone explain to me what LAY and BACK mean??

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding ...

ATP Moscow
Stakhovsky-Berrer Under 23 [-101]

[sharlataans]

Some players have natural talent to fix some not. Voskoboeva does not. She had stone face during the match like she had to think all the time that she has to somehow lose. And missed shots were so obvious.

I already said once that it would be great we had a friend who is tennis expert like tennis coach. He could watch how a player usually play and how he plays certain live game. He would instantly tell that something is fishy. We could make a good money

[Pride]

someone should make a thread to follow betfair money and see how we do.

[Astros148]

Some players have natural talent to fix some not. Voskoboeva does not. She had stone face during the match like she had to think all the time that she has to somehow lose. And missed shots were so obvious.

I already said once that it would be great we had a friend who is tennis expert like tennis coach. He could watch how a player usually play and how he plays certain live game. He would instantly tell that something is fishy. We could make a good money

yeah i wouldnt be suprised if that match was fixed.

im rolling with berrer pretty big today, hopefully i cash in this parlay of kamke/copli

someone should make a thread to follow betfair money and see how we do.

we'd be 2-0 so far thats for sure. make a thread and ill make a excel chart or something if you wish

[shari91]

Can someone explain to me what LAY and BACK mean??

Sorry, just saw this now. Back means you're taking that person to win. Lay means you're placing a bet that they will lose.

Also because Betfair is an exchange and it's just people betting against each other instead of against the book, you have the option of being the bookie yourself. For example, if I thought Pervak would win tonight, I could open up an offer on Vosko ie her to win at $2.50 to try to entice people to bet my line. Anyone who thought Vosko would win and liked that price, could take it up to whatever amount I made available (sometimes one person will bet my limit, sometimes it's a group of people). Because Betfair is comprised of bettors vs bettors, it's basically the most efficient market out there (as is any highly liquid exchange) because it's not just a book hanging a line with low limits and people moving it in whatever increments the book determines. The bettors are setting the fair price on the players of that match and there is no limit to what people can bet. The limit is only what other people make available

[Astros148]

Sorry, just saw this now. Back means you're taking that person to win. Lay means you're placing a bet that they will lose.

Also because Betfair is an exchange and it's just people betting against each other instead of against the book, you have the option of being the bookie yourself. For example, if I thought Pervak would win tonight, I could open up an offer on Vosko ie her to win at $2.50. Anyone who thought Vosko would win and liked that price, could take it up to whatever amount I made available (sometimes one person will bet my limit, sometimes it's a group of people). Because Betfair is comprised of bettors vs bettors, it's basically the most efficient market out there (as is any highly liquid exchange) because it's not just a book hanging a line and people moving it in whatever increments the book determines. The bettors are setting the fair price on the players of that match.

you europeans are so spoiled, i sometimes wonder why us americans use online books to begin with

[sharlataans]

yeah i wouldnt be suprised if that match was fixed.

im rolling with berrer pretty big today, hopefully i cash in this parlay of kamke/copli




we'd be 2-0 so far thats for sure. make a thread and ill make a excel chart or something if you wish

Could you elaborate on Berrer pick? ML is pretty juiced

[shari91]

Some players have natural talent to fix some not. Voskoboeva does not. She had stone face during the match like she had to think all the time that she has to somehow lose. And missed shots were so obvious.

I already said once that it would be great we had a friend who is tennis expert like tennis coach. He could watch how a player usually play and how he plays certain live game. He would instantly tell that something is fishy. We could make a good money

I actually do have a pretty good friend who is a coach but unfortunately he only travels on Tour during larger tournaments. When those aren't on, he works with developing younger players. Unfortunately we lost one of our biggest fixing cash cows last year due to injury and another one has been quietly warned by the ATP that if he gets caught again, he's being kicked off the Tour for a min of 12 months so things have been a bit more quiet as far as what he can get certain info on. When the Aussie Open rolls around though, he'll be back in the middle of it all as he's from here and has access to everyone.

[sharlataans]

I actually do have a pretty good friend who is a coach but unfortunately he only travels on Tour during larger tournaments. When those aren't on, he works with developing younger players. Unfortunately we lost one of our biggest fixing cash cows last year due to injury and another one has been quietly warned by the ATP that if he gets caught again, he's being kicked off the Tour for a min of 12 months so things have been a bit more quiet as far as what he can get certain info on. When the Aussie Open rolls around though, he'll be back in the middle of it all as he's from here and has access to everyone.

Sounds great. If he likes money you could still persuade him. You can watch games online from anywhere nowadays.

Are you referring to Hewitt ?

[shari91]

Sounds great. If he likes money you could still persuade him. You can watch games online from anywhere nowadays.

Are you referring to Hewitt ?

Nah not Hewitt. The top guys are basically clean. There's no incentive for them to fix for the most part and it's quite hard because of there being so much focus on their matches. My friend doesn't get involved with arranging anything. Most of the time it's an outside source who approaches a player directly and offers them money to throw a match or manipulate it somehow, whether that's taking it to 3 sets even though they could close it out in 2 or some other way. Someone even offered Hanescu money at the 2010 Aussie Open when my friend was coaching him to screw around with the scoreline in his match against Federer so these guys could bet the correct score prop. There's a lot of shady stuff that happens, or at least can happen if the player is willing to go along with it. That time Hanescu wasn't.

[Astros148]

damn thats crazy shit shari, i always knew it was rigged but not that bad. imagine how bad it must be in these russian tourneys . that bet that i lost to was so pathetic, i dont see how WTA cant do anything. just pathetic.

[Astros148]

berrer opened up at -105 and now hes -170 in a matter of 4 hours

[sharlataans]

Nah not Hewitt. The top guys are basically clean. There's no incentive for them to fix for the most part and it's quite hard because of there being so much focus on their matches. My friend doesn't get involved with arranging anything. Most of the time it's an outside source who approaches a player directly and offers them money to throw a match or manipulate it somehow, whether that's taking it to 3 sets even though they could close it out in 2 or some other way. Someone even offered Hanescu money at the 2010 Aussie Open when my friend was coaching him to screw around with the scoreline in his match against Federer so these guys could bet the correct score prop. There's a lot of shady stuff that happens, or at least can happen if the player is willing to go along with it. That time Hanescu wasn't.

You are probably right about most top guys that have good careers. Since if you do it once it is over. Those people can blackmail you the rest of your life and make you do it again and again. I guess that's what happened with Davydenko in a bad way.

[emeka]

Stahovsky ML 2.10 !!!! Astros148 , i know that Seppi didn't won ,but i think Stakhovsky will win today, becouse i know that in Russia is a lot of money on him, and bookies just try to **** your mind

[sharlataans]

berrer opened up at -105 and now hes -170 in a matter of 4 hours

Bet365 took the game off the board already

[Astros148]

Stahovsky ML 2.10 !!!! Astros148 , i know that Seppi didn't won ,but i think Stakhovsky will win today, becouse i know that in Russia is a lot of money on him, and bookies just try to **** your mind

huh how do you know theres alot of money on him in russia? werent you trolling yesterday too abouot seppi

[sharlataans]

Donskoy fixer is playing tomorrow. Good money to make on him as well

[shari91]

damn thats crazy shit shari, i always knew it was rigged but not that bad. imagine how bad it must be in these russian tourneys . that bet that i lost to was so pathetic, i dont see how WTA cant do anything. just pathetic.

Yeah it seems strange if you're used to just the major American sports because even if one person wants to throw a game, usually if that person's good enough to be a game changer, he's already making a crapload of cash just for playing. Plus when you have millions of eyes watching you, it makes it more difficult. For middle to lower tier tennis players, they're usually not making a lot of cash and more importantly, they only have to control what they do on the court. There are no team mates to worry about screwing with their plans. I think the Tour officials do try to prevent it but it's pretty impossible to do. Almost every dodgy result can be explained away... for a woman she could say she got period cramps half way through the match, blame it on a breakup with a boyfriend, etc... You can't really prove that not to be true. As long as they're smart about it and not doing it every month and have a good excuse to cover their asses if questioned, they won't really get caught. Mind you my injured guy sort of did but because the ATP couldn't 100% prove it, they made him continue to play with a debilitating knee condition and said if he retired mid way through any more matches (after the 1st set was completed of course), then he'd be thrown off the Tour for something like 2 years. So he kept playing and said fukk it.... my body's going to crap out anyway, so I may as well just earn whatever money I can, finish out matches and fix as much as possible (ie correct score, totals and set betting) until I'm completely unfit to play. And now that's where he's at for the moment. Crazy sport.

[ncsubowen]

You guys just need to be seriously careful this week. I talked a lot about this last year in my thread... this week will kill your bankrolls unless you cut down your unit size and expect the worst. It happens every year... you'll see steam move one way so you think it's a fix for the now favourite and it turns out it was a reverse fix for the dog. Then you'll have the reverse fix in your mind and it'll turn out it's a fix for the favourite. Then you won't see any line movement before the match but all of a sudden a -1200 is playing like my grandmother out there. Bad week to bet. Protect your cash.

Thank you so much Shari. I just hit ML on Berrer for 2 units, hopefully I get away with one there and can steer clear the rest of the week.

[beefcake]

Yeah it seems strange if you're used to just the major American sports because even if one person wants to throw a game, usually if that person's good enough to be a game changer, he's already making a crapload of cash just for playing. Plus when you have millions of eyes watching you, it makes it more difficult. For middle to lower tier tennis players, they're usually not making a lot of cash and more importantly, they only have to control what they do on the court. There are no team mates to worry about screwing with their plans. I think the Tour officials do try to prevent it but it's pretty impossible to do. Almost every dodgy result can be explained away... for a woman she could say she got period cramps half way through the match, blame it on a breakup with a boyfriend, etc... You can't really prove that not to be true. As long as they're smart about it and not doing it every month and have a good excuse to cover their asses if questioned, they won't really get caught. Mind you my injured guy sort of did but because the ATP couldn't 100% prove it, they made him continue to play with a debilitating knee condition and said if he retired mid way through any more matches (after the 1st set was completed of course), then he'd be thrown off the Tour for something like 2 years. So he kept playing and said fukk it.... my body's going to crap out anyway, so I may as well just earn whatever money I can, finish out matches and fix as much as possible (ie correct score, totals and set betting) until I'm completely unfit to play. And now that's where he's at for the moment. Crazy sport.

Must have been at the Burnie Challenger right?

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah follow the line movement and watch your money follow out of your wallet.


I was guessing Shari knows the Gooch!

[Astros148]

EP you really dont think berrer wins? you have under 22 so you think sergily wins in straight sets?

[sharlataans]

Stakhovsky at work

[EaglesPhan36]

EP you really dont think berrer wins? you have under 22 so you think sergily wins in straight sets?

Why would an under mean Stakhovsky wins? I just think one of these schmucks is winning quick.

[Astros148]

Stakhovsky at work

what do you mean?