EP36's Tennis Things I THINK I THINK

[gators0708]

I think Blake upsets DelPo tomorrow! any thoughts?

[EaglesPhan36]

Blake handicap maybe worth a go, ML is a dartboard dog. The DelPo who played Davis Cup in Serbia beats this version of James Blake. Might be a tight set, maybe both if Blake serves balls out ... but I think DelPo is here looking for points and wins.

[Boxing Champ]

Tomorrow leans:

Benneteau 2:0
Blake +5.5
Davydenko -3.5

EP...5Dimes does not haveBenneteau 2:0.. It has games handicap and over/under...
Do I leave it alone or does it translate to some games handicap that I can play???
Thanks...

[EaglesPhan36]

Those aren't my picks. Those are Sharlataans

[TheWu]

Well what are your picks sir?

[Boxing Champ]

Those aren't my picks. Those are Sharlataans

Oh shit..My bad....

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP Moscow
Kukushkin +190
Tomic-Zopp Over 22 [-125]

[Big 12 Expert]

EP is Zopp any good?

[gators0708]

I don't know much about Zopp but I do know that Tomic DOES NOT show up in these 250 events!

[EaglesPhan36]

Tomic has very little experience on these indoor courts and his flat performance in Kuala Lumpur against Cipolla only furthers the question marks of whether he was just rusty or not good on this surface, so I will not be surprised to see him struggle some. Zopp has already had loads of court time here in qualis. If you can get +4 on him, I think that is pretty good too. I only had +3.5, so went with the over instead as Tomic tends to play a lot of three setters lately or two set matches that give this an opportunity.

May add some more in the morning. Beat for now due to lack of sleep, must sleep now for a bit.

[Boxing Champ]

Thanks for the plays EP....
Much appreciated....

Do we play small on Kukushkin, or is this a strong side???
The reason I'm asking is because we've been losing underdog plays lately....
Thanks EP

[sharlataans]

ATP Moscow
Kukushkin +190
Tomic-Zopp Over 22 [-125]

These look good picks. I like Kukushkin here

[sharlataans]

I know Benneteau has been hot as of late. But as long as Donskoy does not take a dive, I think he can beat the him. Crazy odds on this one.

I am playing this mainly because I think Donskoy goes for some dirty money. And I figured this is the only way in this match. Donskoy has been fixing matches left and right. I have seen a couple of them live, do doubt for me.

[Astros148]

you guys ready for another up and down night/day lol. made alot yesterday but i have a bad feeling bout tonight for some reason,let me be wrong

http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-betting/1336635-10-19-atp-wta-discussion-thread.html#post11946559

i made this thread so we can discuss bout live games and stuff instead of spamming this thread so much. good luck!

[Ericg320]

Rolling:

2 Team - Parlay
#4146 - Mikhail Kukushkin +1½ (-150)

#4148 - Viktor Troicki -1½ (-380)


GL all!

[Boxing Champ]

I am playing this mainly because I think Donskoy goes for some dirty money. And I figured this is the only way in this match. Donskoy has been fixing matches left and right. I have seen a couple of them live, do doubt for me.

If Donskoy plays dirty and fixes money... He is the Underdog today....
How can he throw a match? If he was favorite...Yeah.. he can..
Unless Bennetau is dirty too..you have only one thing to worry about...
The only thing Donskoy can do if he decides to fix something is lose by more than the handicap...

[Pride]

lol? he can still lose as a dog and be involved with fixing the match.

[hawley]

what does being the favourite or underdog have to do with throwing the match???

You throw you match - you lose. doesn't matter if you are favoured to win it.

[sharlataans]

Just followed Shari advice and looked up set betting money on Donskoy match at Betfair. And it's $7 500, while in all other bigger games it is not more than $500. Make me feel better

Edit: After examining Betfair, going to go big 10x on Benneteau 2:0.

Also found at one russian online bookie (http://www.parimatch.com), they offer set betting on all matches but this one
is taken down!

Warning, do not follow me on this This might not end well

[Boxing Champ]

Just followed Shari advice and looked up set betting money on Donskoy match at Betfair. And it's $7 500, while in all other bigger games it is not more than $500. Make me feel better

Edit: After examining Betfair, going to go big 10x on Benneteau 2:0

Where do you go to get that info???

[sharlataans]

Where do you go to get that info???

Just go to betfair and have a look at matched amounts. And compare between similar matches. Do not follow me on this as I mentioned this is a risky play. I do it for me to prove my theory on Donskoy.

[Boxing Champ]

what does being the favourite or underdog have to do with throwing the match???

You throw you match - you lose. doesn't matter if you are favoured to win it.

If Nadal is playing Donskoy..how can Donskoy throw a match???
He loses either way...how are you gonna make money by throwing it????
you make money, when you are expected to win and lose...
Thus the huge underdog/fixer side.... gets paid 5-1....10-1....whatever....

[sharlataans]

forget it

[hawley]

If Nadal is playing Donskoy..how can Donskoy throw a match???
He loses either way...how are you gonna make money by throwing it????
you make money, when you are expected to win and lose...
Thus the huge underdog/fixer side.... gets paid 5-1....10-1....whatever....

Why could he not throw it and bet the spread? or just the favourites ML?

Using Nadal is extreme because he would be the biggest fav possible but as long as there is a line the game can be throw with money being put on the other player?

[Boxing Champ]

Just go to betfair and have a look at matched amounts. And compare between similar matches. Do not follow me on this as I mentioned this is a risky play. I do it for me to prove my theory on Donskoy.

I clicked on "Where the money is"..but I don't see Donskoy match...

[Boxing Champ]

If Donskoy plays dirty and fixes money... He is the Underdog today....
How can he throw a match? If he was favorite...Yeah.. he can..
Unless Bennetau is dirty too..you have only one thing to worry about...
The only thing Donskoy can do if he decides to fix something is lose by more than the handicap...

Why could he not throw it and bet the spread? or just the favourites ML?

Using Nadal is extreme because he would be the biggest fav possible but as long as there is a line the game can be throw with money being put on the other player?

Isn't that what I said????

[hawley]

[/B]


Isn't that what I said????

I give up

[Boxing Champ]

I give up

One last time...try to think of it as common sense.....
Donskoy is 3.75
Bennetau(clean does not take bribes) is 1.25

Donskoy is dirty...he can be fixed by Russian Mafia...
Can Mafia fix pay him to WIN the match and win 3.75????? NO
He can only throw it.....
Why would gangstas Pay a shit load of money to Donskoy so he can LOSE....
If he LOSES...Mafia only gets 1/4th of what they bet.....WHY????????
What they do is go to a guy that is Huge favorite.....PAY HIM...HE LOSES...UNDERDOG WINS,
MAFIA'S MONEY was on the UNDERDOG... They get 4 times what they bet...not 1/4th....
Do you get it now?????
The only other thing Donskoy can do is lose by more than handicap..Mafia gets even money
minus the juice....
Do I make sense now?????

[sharlataans]

Mafia has shitload of money. If it is a guaranteed win even 10% is a lot. Benetteau 2:0 pays 1.72 at bet365

[hawley]

So all your trying to say is there is more value in the favourite throwing a match?

[hawley]

Mafia has shitload of money. If it is a guaranteed win even 10% is a lot. Benetteau 2:0 pays 1.72 at bet365

This is my point.

Does not matter the odds if they are guaranteed to win the bet. They just have to bet more which is easy if it is the likes of the mafia.

[Boxing Champ]

Mafia has shitload of money. If it is a guaranteed win even 10% is a lot. Benetteau 2:0 pays 1.72 at bet365

I agree..i'm sure they will take 10% and all...but why risk???
When they have players that are pretty good that have done it before, they don't care
about Nepal open....they are big favorites in first couple rounds....they throw a match like
2...3 people yesterday at like +800....
Why make 10%...50 times, when you can make +500 once....

[Boxing Champ]

I'm sure they mix it up through out the whole field..Favorites, underdogs....
Handicaps. Over/Unders..And everything else..
LIVE BETTING....
I guess we are all right in our own way.....


P.S. Can Javanovski beat Zvonareva too???
at like +700?????(That was fixed yesterday)

[sharlataans]

BoxingChamp, no offence, but how old are you?

[hawley]

I agree..i'm sure they will take 10% and all...but why risk???
When they have players that are pretty good that have done it before, they don't care
about Nepal open....they are big favorites in first couple rounds....they throw a match like
2...3 people yesterday at like +800....
Why make 10%...50 times, when you can make +500 once....

If it is fixed there is no risk