Before telling you my picks for tomorrow I must warn you that a lot of rain is expected and there will be some delays for sure. Most likely, matches won’t start until 5 PM. Here is a link where you can stay updated on the weather situation:
So, here is my first play for tomorrow:
Nadia Petrova over Venus Williams at 3.42 (Betfair, with 5% commission included) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 40%
When you are playing against the Williams’ sisters it is essential that you have the belief that you can win. The two sisters have achieved so much in the last 10 years that many players pay too much respect to them and do not show their best when playing against them. Therefore, it is important to see how the head-to-head stats are before making any predictions. At first look, you will see that Venus has won all of the four matches that she has played with Petrova but the reality is that those matches were played long ago and have little predictive value. The four matches were played in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2007. In the last match, Petrova lost a tough three setter and actually won more games than Venus. It is also important to note that Petrova has won the last two meeting against Serena and both of those matches were played in the last year. Usually, the Williams’ sisters win their matches by overpowering their opponents, but Petrova has shown that she can handle their power. The wet conditions tomorrow won’t change anything as it will hurt both players equally because both are big hitters and rely a lot on their serves.
Caroline Wozniacki (-2) over Flavia Pennetta at 1.921 (Pinnacle) 1.1 units
Probability of winning: ~ 60%
I think Wozniacki is the much better player and getting her at close to even odds with a minor handicap has a lot of value. The reason for the good price on Caroline is her poor performance during the clay court season, but she had an excuse. She turned her ankle in Charleston and after that she suffered losses to inferior players like Alona Bondarenko and Lucie Safarova. However, I was able to watch both of these matches and it was obvious that Wozniacki was playing at about 50% and tanked the second set in both occasions. I was also able to watch two of her three matches in the French Open and I can say she is a completely different player. Not only she plays without fear of her injury, but she is also in top shape. As for Pennetta, she had a pretty average clay court season. She won the title in Marbella but after that she had disappointing losses to Lucie Safarofa and Andrea Petkovic. She was very convincing against Polona Hercog in the third round, but the Slovenian was giving her way to many unforced errors. Something she won’t see from Caroline. The two have played only two times against each other and Wozniacki won both of those fairly easy. Both of these matches were played last year so they are relevant.
Good luck.
So, here is my first play for tomorrow:
Nadia Petrova over Venus Williams at 3.42 (Betfair, with 5% commission included) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 40%
When you are playing against the Williams’ sisters it is essential that you have the belief that you can win. The two sisters have achieved so much in the last 10 years that many players pay too much respect to them and do not show their best when playing against them. Therefore, it is important to see how the head-to-head stats are before making any predictions. At first look, you will see that Venus has won all of the four matches that she has played with Petrova but the reality is that those matches were played long ago and have little predictive value. The four matches were played in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2007. In the last match, Petrova lost a tough three setter and actually won more games than Venus. It is also important to note that Petrova has won the last two meeting against Serena and both of those matches were played in the last year. Usually, the Williams’ sisters win their matches by overpowering their opponents, but Petrova has shown that she can handle their power. The wet conditions tomorrow won’t change anything as it will hurt both players equally because both are big hitters and rely a lot on their serves.
Caroline Wozniacki (-2) over Flavia Pennetta at 1.921 (Pinnacle) 1.1 units
Probability of winning: ~ 60%
I think Wozniacki is the much better player and getting her at close to even odds with a minor handicap has a lot of value. The reason for the good price on Caroline is her poor performance during the clay court season, but she had an excuse. She turned her ankle in Charleston and after that she suffered losses to inferior players like Alona Bondarenko and Lucie Safarova. However, I was able to watch both of these matches and it was obvious that Wozniacki was playing at about 50% and tanked the second set in both occasions. I was also able to watch two of her three matches in the French Open and I can say she is a completely different player. Not only she plays without fear of her injury, but she is also in top shape. As for Pennetta, she had a pretty average clay court season. She won the title in Marbella but after that she had disappointing losses to Lucie Safarofa and Andrea Petkovic. She was very convincing against Polona Hercog in the third round, but the Slovenian was giving her way to many unforced errors. Something she won’t see from Caroline. The two have played only two times against each other and Wozniacki won both of those fairly easy. Both of these matches were played last year so they are relevant.
Good luck.
Daily record: 2-0 for +3.42 units
Record so far: 11-12 for +4.1 units
