Like the bet on Clement, I mean Dolgopolov has played some good matches lately, but to be priced at -250 is way to much.
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use what you wrote above as a blog, because to get your 10 points it has to be 500 words minimum and 1 blog a day. and you have a bunch of small blogs. just to let you know.Comment -
also couldnt agree more with bellucci, llodra just doesnt have the game to compete with him on clay. the clement play is great but even though the price is high i like the way dogolopov has played in his last 2 clay tournies. BOL though!Comment -
As expected, Bellucci is -4 on the spread at 1.83 but I am going to pass since I don't want to put too much eggs in one basket.Comment -
good luck today.
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Good luck. It should be an interesting day.Comment -
Looks like there is going to be a fifth set in the Clement match. Bellucci looking good leading a set and 4-1 in the second.Comment -
Pretty good day. Bellucci wins 6-4 6-2 6-2 so as I expected the -4 would have been the better play. Clement pushed Dolgopolov to a fifth set but couldn't do it. Bondarenko wins 6-7 6-3 6-4.
Today record: 2-1 for +1.05 units
Updated record: 6-7 for +1.37 unitsComment -
good day Noobs, you made a profit, lets have a good day today and build up those units
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French Open Day 4
I didn’t have any plays for today as I didn’t identify matches with reasonable positive expected value. It seems that the books are pretty efficient when it comes to Grand Slams. Still, I think there are some good plays for tomorrow.
Angelique Kerber over Aravane Rezai at 7.84 (Betfair, with 5% commission included) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~25%
This play has a huge positive expected value of 96% if my estimated probability of winning is correct. But given the odds, Kerber should win 12.57% of the time for you to break even so there is some good margin of safety. Here are the reasons why I think this is a very good play:
- Rezai had an amazing last week, winning against players like Venus Williams, Justine Henin and Jelena Jankovic. Thus, the public expects her to play to this level, while the reality is that most of the top players were saving energy for the French Open and didn’t show their best. Indeed, when Rezai is hot she can do a lot of damage, but usually she doesn’t get hot for long. Last year, she won the masters in Bali and then a series of average results followed.
- Rezai and Kerber played in the Australian Open this year and Kerber won 6-2 6-3 (that was their only meeting)
- Kerber’s style matches very well against ball bashers like Rezai. The French likes the ball in her strike zone but Kerber is capable of breaking her game with a mix of slices and high balls.
- After winning the title in Madrid last week, the French media has put a lot of pressure on Rezai to perform well in the French Open. She may crack under that pressure, especially when she is a big favorite.
Julien Benneteau over Leonardo Mayer at 2.39 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~45%
The two have played three times with Leonardo Mayer coming on top twice. They recently met in Madrid, where Benneteau had the match under control but lost a tough three setter – 7-6, 5-7 4-6. As for recent form, I must admit that Mayer has performed better in the last two months, but that’s why we are able to get a good price on Benneteau. But comparing the two players over a longer period you can clearly see that the French has performed much better. This explains why Benneteau is ranked almost 20 spots higher than Mayer. Benneteau was even able to get a very prestigious win over Federer, so he knows that he can beat anyone on the tour if he plays well. Last week, Mayer won against Bellucci and Baghdatis, but the win against Bellucci doesn’t mean anything as it was an obvious tank from the Brazillian. Another factor to consider is the home court advantage. Benneteau usually does well in front of home crowd and has a history of doing well in the French Open. In 2006, he got to the quarterfinals and two years later he got to the third round.
Good luck.Comment -
Honestly, I haven't heard of Kerber before so I will stay away from this one but I like the Bennetau one.Comment -
Great breakdown noober.Like the takesComment -
Put a few units on Benneteau, I think he'll get it done in front of the home crowd. Also made a small play on Kerber...that one could be very, very interesting. Low risk, high reward!Comment -
Plays for tomorrow:
Dementieva (-4.5) over Garrigues at 1.99 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability: ~60%
Dementieva over Garrigues at 1.38 (Pinnacle) 3 units
Probability: ~80%Comment -
Dementieva was up 5-3 in the second but blew it and now they are tied at 5 all.Comment -
French Open Day Six
So far the rain has been a big factor in the French Open and many matches were postponed for tomorrow. It not only changes the schedule, but also drastically changes the playing conditions, as the humid weather makes the ball heavier and the game becomes slower. Big servers are at a disadvantage, while baseliners and defensive players feel more comfortable. The forecast for tomorrow is much better with only 10% chance of precipitation and that should be a key factor in identifying value plays for tomorrow. However, there is one play which does not require any complicated analysis in order to come to the conclusion that it has positive expected value. Here it is:
Nadia Petrova over Aravane Rezai at 2.31 (Pinnacle) 2 units
Probability of winning: ~55%
I never put more than 3 units on a play and never more than two units on a dog, so I am playing the max on Petrova. But the way I see it, I am getting better than even odds for the much better player. As I already said in my pre-draw French Open WTA analysis, Rezai is currently among the most overvalued players. She did have an amazing week in Madrid with wins against players like Venus Williams, Justine Henin and Jelena Jankovic but that doesn’t mean much. Everybody expects her to beat these kinds of players again, but the reality is that most of the big names in Madrid were saving energy for the French Open and didn’t show their best. I expected Rezai to have troubles in the second round against Angelique Kerber and I was correct, as the match went to three sets. But this time the French will meet a much more experienced player and I highly doubt she will be able to come through. Petrova is known for being inconsistent and she often loses to worse players than her, but now she is very motivated to do well in the French Open. Morever, she is currently in top form and cruised through the first two rounds with very easy wins over Zhang and Szavay. Also, during the clay court season she has beaten Serena Williams, Elena Vesnina, Pavlychenkova, and Alexandra Dulgheru – all players whom I consider better than Rezai on this surface.
I also have another play for tomorrow but I am going smaller on it:
Rosana De Los Rios (+7) over Sam Stosur at 2.2 (Pinnacle) .75 units
Probability: ~50%
Rosana De Los Rios is very experienced (35 years old) and has spent most of her career playing on clay. She is not even close to the level of Sam Stosur, but I believe that she will be able to hang in with her and win six games. This play is also based on the Australian, as it is very rare for her to blow opponents off the court. She usually starts slowly and can be very erratic on the return games. I checked her record over the last few years and it was very rare for her to be a huge favorite and lose less than five games. The lack of rain will definitely favor the Paraguayan.
Good luck.Comment -
i dont know i never trust fattys like bartoli and petrova on clayBaba-e-qaum ne farmaya, too chal me ayaComment -
Almagro is a 5-1 favorite---I say that he losesComment -
He likes those 5 settersComment -
For some reason, pinnacle says Rezai and Petrova will play on Saturday while the official schedule says it will be tomorrow. SBR sportsbook doesn't have this match listed yet. Hopefully they will fix it because I wanted to put some points as well.Comment -
De Los Rios up 4-3 in the first with a break.Comment -
Things not looking good anymore: 6-4 1-6
De Los Rios needs 2 games for a push and 3 games for a win. Hopefully she can make it.Comment -
6-0 Stosur in the third so that's a loss. Hopefully Petrova can make it a winning day.Comment -
Play for today:
Kleybanova (-3.5) over Shvedova at 1.901 (Pinnacle) 1.2 unitsComment -
One more play:
Wickmayer over Hantuchova at 2 (Pinnacle) 1.5 units
Probability: ~57%Comment -
nice hit with Petrova, i'm surprised she pulled it out with the crowd and allComment -
Daily record: 0-2 for -2.7 units
Record so far: 9-12 for +.67 unitsComment -
French Open Day 8
Before telling you my picks for tomorrow I must warn you that a lot of rain is expected and there will be some delays for sure. Most likely, matches won’t start until 5 PM. Here is a link where you can stay updated on the weather situation:
So, here is my first play for tomorrow:
Nadia Petrova over Venus Williams at 3.42 (Betfair, with 5% commission included) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 40%
When you are playing against the Williams’ sisters it is essential that you have the belief that you can win. The two sisters have achieved so much in the last 10 years that many players pay too much respect to them and do not show their best when playing against them. Therefore, it is important to see how the head-to-head stats are before making any predictions. At first look, you will see that Venus has won all of the four matches that she has played with Petrova but the reality is that those matches were played long ago and have little predictive value. The four matches were played in 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2007. In the last match, Petrova lost a tough three setter and actually won more games than Venus. It is also important to note that Petrova has won the last two meeting against Serena and both of those matches were played in the last year. Usually, the Williams’ sisters win their matches by overpowering their opponents, but Petrova has shown that she can handle their power. The wet conditions tomorrow won’t change anything as it will hurt both players equally because both are big hitters and rely a lot on their serves.
Caroline Wozniacki (-2) over Flavia Pennetta at 1.921 (Pinnacle) 1.1 units
Probability of winning: ~ 60%
I think Wozniacki is the much better player and getting her at close to even odds with a minor handicap has a lot of value. The reason for the good price on Caroline is her poor performance during the clay court season, but she had an excuse. She turned her ankle in Charleston and after that she suffered losses to inferior players like Alona Bondarenko and Lucie Safarova. However, I was able to watch both of these matches and it was obvious that Wozniacki was playing at about 50% and tanked the second set in both occasions. I was also able to watch two of her three matches in the French Open and I can say she is a completely different player. Not only she plays without fear of her injury, but she is also in top shape. As for Pennetta, she had a pretty average clay court season. She won the title in Marbella but after that she had disappointing losses to Lucie Safarofa and Andrea Petkovic. She was very convincing against Polona Hercog in the third round, but the Slovenian was giving her way to many unforced errors. Something she won’t see from Caroline. The two have played only two times against each other and Wozniacki won both of those fairly easy. Both of these matches were played last year so they are relevant.
Good luck.Last edited by noober; 05-29-10, 04:46 PM.Comment -
hey noob, what's up?
I was searching for some info on Caroline's injury, wanting to play Pennetta, but you convinced me to take Wozniacki.
GL
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She looked very sharp against Dulgheru and the previous two matches.Comment -
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both looking very good so far. thanks for the picks and the analysis.Comment -
Wozniacki must win one of the next two games for the win.Comment
