Noober's tennis picks

**noober** · 06-30-10, 05:22 AM

One play today:

King and Shvedova over Srebotnik and Peshke at 2.8 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~40%

**iceminers26** · 06-30-10, 06:59 AM

good luck today Noobs

**noober** · 06-30-10, 08:26 AM

Thanks Ice, looking good so far.

**noober** · 06-30-10, 08:38 AM

King and Shvedova won 3-6 7-5 6-3

Daily record: 1-0 for +1.8 units
So far: 25-25 for +8.56 units

**noober** · 07-01-10, 04:21 PM

One play for tomorrow:

Zvonareva/Vesnina over Dulko/Penetta at 2.18 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~50%

**noober** · 07-02-10, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by noober

One play for tomorrow:

Zvonareva/Vesnina over Dulko/Penetta at 2.18 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~50%

Zvonareva/Vesnina won 6-3 6-1

Daily record: 1-0 for +1.18 units
So far: 26-25 for +9.74 units

**noober** · 07-09-10, 01:34 AM

One Play today:

Hercog over Schnyder at 2.15 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 55%

**PetrGasparik** · 07-09-10, 04:25 AM

Hercog

**noober** · 07-09-10, 08:04 AM

Hercog gets the break

**noober** · 07-09-10, 08:46 AM

down a set, up 3-0 in the second.

**JNic** · 07-09-10, 08:52 AM

hercog really choked that first set, hercog will win in 3 though. i love her volleying

**noober** · 07-09-10, 08:54 AM

are u watching the match? I am at work so just following livescores.

**whitedogau** · 07-09-10, 08:57 AM

schnyder just went to sleep after the 1st set

**noober** · 07-09-10, 09:00 AM

hope she doesn't wake up for the third

**JNic** · 07-09-10, 09:04 AM

yea at the end of the first set, hercog missed an easy overhead, literally made 5 errors in a row when she had 0-40 on schynders serve at 5-5.
she's settled down, lets get this 3rd

**whitedogau** · 07-09-10, 09:06 AM

she did not deserve to win the first

**noober** · 07-09-10, 09:06 AM

thanks for the update jnic. final set is a toss up imo.

**noober** · 07-09-10, 09:50 AM

today: 0-1 for -1 units
So far: 26-26 for +8.74 units

**JNic** · 07-09-10, 10:14 AM

hercog really has to get it together mentally, she has the game to be one of the best - tough slice backhand, great kick serve, superb volleys and forehand

**noober** · 07-10-10, 05:09 AM

Value Tennis Plays for Today

It’s been a while since I posted a detailed write up of my plays but since it’s Saturday I have some time and will go for it. I downloaded couple of matches from this week’s tournaments so I am aware of the current form of most of the players or at least I hope so. So here are my plays for today:

Gisela Dulko to win 2-0 against Aravane Rezai at 5.35 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 23%

If this match was being played just couple of months ago (before the clay court season) the odds would have been around even. Obviously, Rezai got a lot of confidence from winning a tier 1 WTA tournament and beating players like Venus Williams and Jelena Jankovic but I don’t think she changed that much. It’s a final and both players will give their best so anything is possible. I saw more value on the set betting than the ML and decided to go with the 2-0. I think Rezai wins the match with probability of around 66% so if you can get odds bigger than 3 you have value. Pinnacle currently has the ML at 3.25. It’s also important to note that the two have met twice in the past and Dulko came out victorious in both cases. The matches were played in 2008 but I still think they have predictive value. On clay Dulko won in two sets, while on grass she won in 3 pretty straight forward sets.

Agnes Szavay to win 2-0 against Alexandra Dulhgeru at 3.2 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 36%

Agnes looked very sharp yesterday against Alize Cornet and was able to get a very easy win. She is the defending champion here and obviously likes these courts. With the help of the home crowd support I think there is a good chance she rolls past Dulgheru who already had some very tough matches in this tournament and the fatigue factor will start to appear. The two have never met before because the Romanian is relatively new to the top WTA scene. Anyway, I expect a long match because both players can put a lot of ball in the court but I think Szavay will have a slight edge in the rallies and this will be enough to prevail.

Alexandra Dulgheru and Alisa Kleybanova over Medina Garrigues and Sorana Cirstea at 1.952 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 57%

Each team has a good doubles player and a solid baseliner so as far as doubles skills are concerned the two teams are about even. However, Dulgheru and Kleybanova are much better singles players and we all know that is very important when it comes to WTA doubles. Most of the time two players are just playing cross courts, while the other two are just standing at the net afraid to cross. I hope this will hit as it’s my only non-dog play for the day.

Good luck if you tail my picks.

**blackf1re** · 07-10-10, 05:21 AM

Good luck. Betsson has Dulko 2-0 @ 6.20 btw.

**noober** · 07-10-10, 05:40 AM

Not sure how trustable Betsson is, but 6.2 is a lot of value and you will win long term for sure if you place bets like this.

**fukredsCOACH** · 07-10-10, 05:41 AM

Man have you ever seen any tennis?Its a game played with rackets and balls

**fukredsCOACH** · 07-10-10, 05:42 AM

Noober betsson is a very good bookie

**noober** · 07-10-10, 05:44 AM

Betsson has a B- rating according to SBR.

Don't expect to make big money out of it.

**noober** · 07-10-10, 05:44 AM

Originally posted by fukredsCOACH

Man have you ever seen any tennis?Its a game played with rackets and balls

Is that a question to me?

**shari91** · 07-10-10, 05:49 AM

Originally posted by noober

Is that a question to me?

I think that was one of those posts purely for the extra point. Pay no attention to it.

All the best with your plays!!

**noober** · 07-10-10, 05:54 AM

Thanks Shari. Good luck to you as well!!!

**noober** · 07-10-10, 12:41 PM

Loss
Loss
Loss

Today: 0-3 for -3 units
So far: 26-29 for +5.74

**noober** · 07-11-10, 03:41 AM

Value Tennis Plays for the Day

After a bad day yesterday I am going to try to come back solid with some value plays and hopefully winners. So here are my plays for today:

Agnes Szavay -3 over Patty Schnyder at 1.901 (Pinnacle) 1.5 units
Probability of winning: ~ 58%

Agnes Szavay is the kind of players that I never back up as she is mentally very weak and doesn’t seem to care too much. However, when it comes to playing he home country tournament in Budapest she gives it all. I was actually able to see last year’s final, which was between the two same players. Patty didn’t look good at all while Szavay was very determined and took the title after losing the first set 6-2. This year Szavay has been a disappointment and her ranking dropped significantly, but now that she has to defend so many points she picked it up a lot. I watched her against Alize Cornet in the quarterfinals and she looked very sharp. Yesterday, she beat one of the best fighters on the WTA in three sets, which shows a lot of determination. On the other hand, Patty Schnyder has been a good fading material during the last year as she doesn’t seem to care a lot and obviously tanked some matches. I was very surprised to see her making the final here and beating some good players, but I don’t think she is capable of winning another title. I think she will retire very soon so this could be her last final. Besides the final in this same tournament last year, the two have played in two other occasions with Schnyder coming on top both of the times. However, one of the matches was a retirement at 2-5 and the other was a Fed Cup match played on carpet so those have little predictive value.

Timea Bacisnky and Tatiana Garbin over Medina Garrigues and Sorana Cirstea at 2.31 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 45%

It’s very hard to predict those WTA doubles matches so a lot of times you find value in the plus money matches, especially having a superbreaker decide the match instead of a third set. Obviously, the best doubles player here is Medina Garrigues who was able to reach number 3 in the doubles ranking some time ago. She also played the semifinal in this year’s French Open. But Sorana Cirstea is relatively inexperienced doubles player and in my opinion she is the worse out of these four players. I like the team of Timea Bacisnky and Tatiana Garbin because they have played many times as a team in the past and obviously have more experience as a team. On the other hand, this is only the second tournament Medina Garrigues and Sorana Cirstea are playing together, but it’s important to note that they won the previous one. They won the title in Estoril couple of months ago but didn’t beat any good doubles team other than Peng/Zhang. Anyway, should be a close game.

Good luck for today.

**noober** · 07-11-10, 08:50 AM

Szavay covers easily. Onto the doubles.

**jojo85** · 07-11-10, 10:14 AM

hey noober, how do you find your expected probability of winning percentages? Do you use statistical analysis or is it based on a 'feel'?

**noober** · 07-11-10, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by noober

After a bad day yesterday I am going to try to come back solid with some value plays and hopefully winners. So here are my plays for today:

Agnes Szavay -3 over Patty Schnyder at 1.901 (Pinnacle) 1.5 units
Probability of winning: ~ 58%

Agnes Szavay is the kind of players that I never back up as she is mentally very weak and doesn’t seem to care too much. However, when it comes to playing he home country tournament in Budapest she gives it all. I was actually able to see last year’s final, which was between the two same players. Patty didn’t look good at all while Szavay was very determined and took the title after losing the first set 6-2. This year Szavay has been a disappointment and her ranking dropped significantly, but now that she has to defend so many points she picked it up a lot. I watched her against Alize Cornet in the quarterfinals and she looked very sharp. Yesterday, she beat one of the best fighters on the WTA in three sets, which shows a lot of determination. On the other hand, Patty Schnyder has been a good fading material during the last year as she doesn’t seem to care a lot and obviously tanked some matches. I was very surprised to see her making the final here and beating some good players, but I don’t think she is capable of winning another title. I think she will retire very soon so this could be her last final. Besides the final in this same tournament last year, the two have played in two other occasions with Schnyder coming on top both of the times. However, one of the matches was a retirement at 2-5 and the other was a Fed Cup match played on carpet so those have little predictive value.

Timea Bacisnky and Tatiana Garbin over Medina Garrigues and Sorana Cirstea at 2.31 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 45%

It’s very hard to predict those WTA doubles matches so a lot of times you find value in the plus money matches, especially having a superbreaker decide the match instead of a third set. Obviously, the best doubles player here is Medina Garrigues who was able to reach number 3 in the doubles ranking some time ago. She also played the semifinal in this year’s French Open. But Sorana Cirstea is relatively inexperienced doubles player and in my opinion she is the worse out of these four players. I like the team of Timea Bacisnky and Tatiana Garbin because they have played many times as a team in the past and obviously have more experience as a team. On the other hand, this is only the second tournament Medina Garrigues and Sorana Cirstea are playing together, but it’s important to note that they won the previous one. They won the title in Estoril couple of months ago but didn’t beat any good doubles team other than Peng/Zhang. Anyway, should be a close game.

Good luck for today.

Both winners today

Daily record: 2-0 for +2.66 units
So far: 28-29 for +8.4 units

**noober** · 07-11-10, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by jojo85

hey noober, how do you find your expected probability of winning percentages? Do you use statistical analysis or is it based on a 'feel'?

I do some research and after that I come up with an approximate probability (feel). I only use statistical analysis for live tennis betting.

**noober** · 07-11-10, 04:46 PM

Not a big fan of parlays but I am going to have one for tomorrow:

Hanescu over Chiudinelli at 1.36
Chrady over Gimneo Traver at 1.488

Parlaying it in Pinnacle at 2.02 (1.5 units)

Probability : ~ 58%

GL.