Noober's tennis picks

[blackf1re]

.0344 units

A win is a win.

[noober]

A win is a win.

[noober]

Actually, he is just part of his crew for the grass-court season.

It has officialy been announced that Peter McNanamara is his coach now and he would no longer work with Peter Lundgren.

[noober]

Only one play for today:

Davydenko over Becker at 1.826 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~65%

I think there is some over reaction to his injury.

[noober]

Only one play for today:

Davydenko over Becker at 1.826 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~65%

I think there is some over reaction to his injury.

Becker won 6-3 6-4

Daily record: 0-1 for -1 unit
So far: 16-20 for +3.43 units

[noober]

One Play for today:

Hewitt over Becker at 1.515 (Pinnacle) 2 units

Probability of winning: ~ 72.5%

[TomaCro]

i go for schuettler again today.

[noober]

Hewitt won 6-7 7-6 6-2

Daily record: 1-0 for +1.03 units
So far: 17-20 for +4.46 units

[noober]

Plays for today:

Peter Luczak -1.5 over Michael Russell at 1.9 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 65%


Safina over Rybarikova at 1.8 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 65%

[JNic]

o wow i forgot the other tournaments started today, i like luczak here a lot

[noober]

Safina lost 7-6 4-6 4-6
Luczak wom 7-6 7-6 so he covers.

Daily record: 1-1 for -.1 units
So far: 18-21 for +4.36 units

[noober]

Value Tennis Plays for Tomorrow

Didn’t have any plays in the last two days but I was able to watch some tennis and get an idea of the current form of certain players. That being said, I am going to have a play tomorrow on a player I have never seen play. But her results are enough for me to see some value:

Heather Watson over Alexandra Wozniak at 3.12 (Pinnacle) .7 units
Probability of winning: ~ 40%

Watson is a very promising British youngster and she already got through the qualies so she is used to the courts and the atmosphere. She defeated Pironkova in three sets which was a very good win. Just to let you know couple of weeks ago Pironkova defeated Wozniak in straight sets. In the final round of the qualies she won against Boyana Jovanosvski, which is also a good win. On the other hand, Wozniak was in a very big slump and was losing to average players. She actually had a decent French Open, but one good tournament is not enough to convince me that she is back in shape. I expect the handicap to be “Watson +3.5” at around 2.1 but I would suggest going for the money line, because if Wozniak is going to win, she will most likely do it in two sets and will cover with no problems. I am much more confident about my second pick though and see more value in it:

Viktoria Azarenka over Agniezska Radwanska at 2.43 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 50%

I just don’t see a reason why Azarenka should be the dog here. Indeed, she has been below par in the last month but a new season is starting (the grass court season) and she had plenty of time to prepare well and forget about the disappointing performance at Roland Garros. On the other hand, Radwanska has played very bad recently and I think she is really weak mentally at the moment. Apparently, she is in some kind of conflict with her Dad and she is not showing her best. During her match with Shvedova, her Robert Radwanski was counting the unforced errors her daughter was making out loud to which Agniezska replied with “F*uck off”. After the match, she said that she is considering splitting with her father and hiring someone else to coach her, but I don’t have an update on that story. Anyway, the match tomorrow should be very even and I actually think that the Belarusian have a slight edge. The two have met five times in the past and Azarenka won three of these. But careful analysis of the head-to-head statistics shows that Azarenka has an obvious edge. Radwanska won the first match in 2006, so this has little predictive value as both players have changed significantly after that. Radwasnka also won their last meeting but I was able to watch it and can say that Azarenka was the much better player. She lost just because she got cramps and had to retire.

Good luck.

[beefcake]

Good breakdowns as usual noober.Might take a stab at em...

Lets kill wimbledon...!

[Fthenorm]

Aza definitely the value, but damn she is erratic these days...and not to mention retires every other match

[noober]

Didn’t have any plays in the last two days but I was able to watch some tennis and get an idea of the current form of certain players. That being said, I am going to have a play tomorrow on a player I have never seen play. But her results are enough for me to see some value:

Heather Watson over Alexandra Wozniak at 3.12 (Pinnacle) .7 units
Probability of winning: ~ 40%

Watson is a very promising British youngster and she already got through the qualies so she is used to the courts and the atmosphere. She defeated Pironkova in three sets which was a very good win. Just to let you know couple of weeks ago Pironkova defeated Wozniak in straight sets. In the final round of the qualies she won against Boyana Jovanosvski, which is also a good win. On the other hand, Wozniak was in a very big slump and was losing to average players. She actually had a decent French Open, but one good tournament is not enough to convince me that she is back in shape. I expect the handicap to be “Watson +3.5” at around 2.1 but I would suggest going for the money line, because if Wozniak is going to win, she will most likely do it in two sets and will cover with no problems. I am much more confident about my second pick though and see more value in it:

Viktoria Azarenka over Agniezska Radwanska at 2.43 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 50%

I just don’t see a reason why Azarenka should be the dog here. Indeed, she has been below par in the last month but a new season is starting (the grass court season) and she had plenty of time to prepare well and forget about the disappointing performance at Roland Garros. On the other hand, Radwanska has played very bad recently and I think she is really weak mentally at the moment. Apparently, she is in some kind of conflict with her Dad and she is not showing her best. During her match with Shvedova, her Robert Radwanski was counting the unforced errors her daughter was making out loud to which Agniezska replied with “F*uck off”. After the match, she said that she is considering splitting with her father and hiring someone else to coach her, but I don’t have an update on that story. Anyway, the match tomorrow should be very even and I actually think that the Belarusian have a slight edge. The two have met five times in the past and Azarenka won three of these. But careful analysis of the head-to-head statistics shows that Azarenka has an obvious edge. Radwanska won the first match in 2006, so this has little predictive value as both players have changed significantly after that. Radwasnka also won their last meeting but I was able to watch it and can say that Azarenka was the much better player. She lost just because she got cramps and had to retire.

Good luck.

Both dogs won.

Azarenka won 7-6 6-1
Watson won 6-3 6-2

Daily record: 2-0 for +2.91 units
So far: 20-21 for +7.27 units

[Yezzir]

Great work!

[noober]

Some Wimbledon plays:

Monfils -3.5 over Leo Mayer at 1.885 (Pinnacle) 1.2 units

Probability: ~ 66%

Wawrinka -4 over Istomin at 2 (Bet365) 1.2 units

Probability: ~ 57%

Kerber -2.5 over Mirza at 1.9 (Bet365) 1.2 units

Probability: ~ 66%

[jojo85]

I'm liking the play on Wawrinka!

[noober]

One more play:

Hanescu over Kuznetsov at 1.6 (Pinnacle) 1.5 units

Probability: ~75%

[noober]

Hanescu defeated Kuznetsov
Monfils covered against Mayer
Wawrinka lost to Istomin
Kerber covered against Mirza

Daily record: 3-1 for +2.15 units
So far: 23-22 for +9.14

[ringemup]

had monfils on the card

[jojo85]

hey noober, are you still betting on wimbledon? Be interested to see some of your plays!

[noober]

Two plays for tomorrow:

Isner over De Bakker at 2.56 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability of winning: ~ 48%

I think people are overestimating the fatigue factor. Isner will show up ready to play and tough to be broken.


Kerber -2 over Groth at 1.93 (Pinnacle) 1.5 units

Probability of winning: ~ 60%

Both are in great shape but Kerber is just better on grass.

[JNic]

couldnt agree more with isner, let's hope he is near 100% ready

[noober]

Two plays for tomorrow:

Isner over De Bakker at 2.56 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability of winning: ~ 48%

I think people are overestimating the fatigue factor. Isner will show up ready to play and tough to be broken.


Kerber -2 over Groth at 1.93 (Pinnacle) 1.5 units

Probability of winning: ~ 60%

Both are in great shape but Kerber is just better on grass.

Looks like I underestimated the fatigue factor.

Daily Reocord: 0-2 for -1.5 units
So far: 23-24 for +7.64

[noober]

One play for tommorow:

Kvitova +5 over Azaraenka at 2.12 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 50%

[birdmanweezy]

good luck noober

[noober]

Looks like I underestimated the fatigue factor.

Daily Reocord: 0-2 for -1.5 units
So far: 23-24 for +7.64

Actually,

Daily Reocord: 0-2 for -2.5 units
So far: 23-24 for +6.64

[noober]

One play for tommorow:

Kvitova +5 over Azaraenka at 2.12 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 50%

Should have played Kvitova -5

[shari91]

Should have played Kvitova -5

Great call!!

[jojo85]

haha meltdown by azarenka.. nice call!

[noober]

One play for tommorow:

Kvitova +5 over Azaraenka at 2.12 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 50%

Daily Record: 1-0 for +1.12 units

So Far: 24-24 for +7.76 units

[noober]

Today:

Radwanska over Na Li at 2.13 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 50%

[jojo85]

yeah, don't see why Na Li should be favored here...

[noober]

Today:

Radwanska over Na Li at 2.13 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 50%

0-1 for -1 unit

So far:

24-25 for +6.76 units