Noober's tennis picks

[noober]

I decided to start a thread for my tennis picks. I only bet tennis (with very rare exceptions I put a little on soccer) and have done very well since September, but I must admit I got lucky. I have achieved over 10000% return in a period of 6-7 months but then I lost 70% of it. It was done mostly on live betting and everything with Bet365. I definitely got lucky as I was using a lot the martingale system, but not always. So here is my analysis for tomorrow’s matches and my picks.
Zheng over Govortsova at 2.04 (pinnacle) 2 units
Probability of winning: ~ 55%
This match was scheduled for today but was postponed for tomorrow because of rain. When the odds came out, Govortsova was at 2.66 which indicate heavy betting on the Belarussian.
05/16 14:09 2.66 / 1.55
05/16 14:29 2.49 / 1.62
05/16 14:33 2.34 / 1.69
05/16 14:34 2.40 / 1.66
05/16 14:35 2.41 / 1.65
05/16 14:39 2.42 / 1.65
05/16 14:55 2.29 / 1.71
05/16 14:57 2.35 / 1.68
05/16 14:58 2.33 / 1.69
05/16 15:03 2.38 / 1.67
05/16 15:13 2.32 / 1.70
05/16 15:24 2.35 / 1.68
05/16 16:01 2.37 / 1.67
05/16 16:21 2.28 / 1.72
05/16 16:27 2.29 / 1.71
05/16 16:29 2.31 / 1.70
05/16 16:34 2.32 / 1.70
05/16 16:39 2.33 / 1.69
05/16 16:45 2.34 / 1.69
05/16 16:49 2.37 / 1.67
05/16 17:16 2.30 / 1.71
05/16 17:17 2.32 / 1.70
05/16 18:56 2.30 / 1.71
05/16 18:57 2.29 / 1.71
05/16 19:11 2.21 / 1.76
05/16 19:44 2.22 / 1.76
05/16 19:45 2.24 / 1.75
05/16 20:02 2.25 / 1.74
05/16 20:52 2.26 / 1.73
05/16 22:20 2.19 / 1.78
05/17 02:15 2.21 / 1.76
05/17 02:16 2.25 / 1.74
05/17 02:48 2.18 / 1.78
05/17 03:02 2.16 / 1.79
05/17 03:04 2.15 / 1.81
05/17 03:05 2.14 / 1.81
05/17 03:06 2.08 / 1.85
05/17 03:12 2.11 / 1.83
05/17 03:20 2.12 / 1.83
05/17 03:28 2.11 / 1.83
05/17 03:29 2.12 / 1.83
05/17 03:37 2.07 / 1.86
05/17 03:56 2.00 / 1.93
05/17 03:57 1.98 / 1.94
05/17 03:59 1.99 / 1.93
05/17 04:00 2.00 / 1.93
05/17 04:01 2.01 / 1.92
05/17 04:07 2.02 / 1.91
05/17 04:18 2.00 / 1.93
05/17 04:35 2.01 / 1.92
05/17 04:44 2.02 / 1.91
05/17 05:10 2.00 / 1.93
05/17 05:40 2.01 / 1.92
05/17 05:45 2.02 / 1.91
05/17 05:48 2.04 / 1.89
05/17 06:03 1.99 / 1.93
05/17 06:40 2.00 / 1.93
05/17 07:01 1.96 / 1.96
05/17 07:07 1.97 / 1.95
05/17 07:39 1.96 / 1.96
05/17 12:58 1.95 / 1.97
05/17 13:09 1.93 / 2.00
05/17 13:22 1.91 / 2.02
05/17 13:27 1.88 / 2.04
05/17 14:24 1.87 / 2.06
05/17 14:29 1.88 / 2.04
05/17 15:08 1.89 / 2.04
05/17 15:12 1.88 / 2.04
05/17 15:49 1.88 / 2.05
05/17 16:50 1.88 / 2.04

While the initial betting on Govortsova was probably done by sharp players (definitely value on Govortsova at the initial odds) I believe steamers are responsible for such a big price drop. Anyway, I see Zheng as the superior player, who happened to have two bad losses at the beginning of the season. While clay is definitely not her best surface, I wouldn’t consider her a bad clay courter. She had some good wins last year and took Safina to a third set tiebreaker in Rome when Safina was close to unbeatable on that surface. Govortsova and Zheng have met only once and that happened last year in the first round of the same tournament. Zheng won a hard three set battle, which is not surprising as she is mentally much stronger. Govortsova is very up and down and can have amazing days as well as complete disasters. Her record is not good against counterpunchers and I don’t see a reason why not to take Zheng at that price. Another factor to consider for tomorrow is the wet conditions. It has rained a lot today, and tomorrow will be no difference. Rainy conditions make the courts much slower and the balls much heavier which benefits defensive players.
Rybarikova over Oudin at 3.04 (pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~40%
Rybarikova is a very good player with wins over some of the top players, but has done very poorly recently. She plays better on hard courts, where her serve is a weapon, but handles clay fairly well. Oudin is extremely inconsistent and backing her at 1.45 is not smart. If she plays close to her best she will win against Rybarikova, but that doesn’t happen very often. I have Oudin in my list of overrated players and the reason for that is that her ranking is based mainly on 3 good tournaments. If it wasn’t for Wimbledon and US Open last year, her ranking would have been similar to Rybarikova’s. I don’t think the rainy conditions will benefit any of the players as both are fairly aggressive. I must say that Oudin’s backhand slice is going to be pretty effective though.
Good luck if you tail my picks.

[JNic]

GL tomorrow i hope you do well

[Marginalis]

gl with the picks.

[tailmypicks]

zheng is the andy murray of wta, forehandless excellent movers

noober is that guillermo coria in ur avatar?

[noober]

Yeah, it's Guillermo Coria.

[noober]

Zheng looking good leading 6-1 3-1.

[noober]

Not looking good anymore. Zheng was up 4-1 with a double break in the second, then she served for the match at 5-4. When she was down 6-5 at 30-30 she served two double faults to end the set.

[noober]

Zheng wins 7-5 in the third. Should have been a lot easier.

[noober]

Rybarykova with an easy win: 6-0 6-2

[noober]

Record for today: 2-0 for +4.12 units
ROI: 137%

[michalis]

awesome noober, I love your recap

where did you get the line movement from? is that for bet365 line moves?

[noober]

awesome noober, I love your recap

where did you get the line movement from? is that for bet365 line moves?

Actually, right here at SBR.

http://odds.sbrforum.com/#/odds/wta/whole_game/moneyline.html

[noober]

Hewitt over Berdych at 2.91 (pinnacle) .7 units

Probability of winning: ~40%

[necro]

Good luck!

[Marginalis]

Good luck

[mav924]

Good luck

[noober]

Hewitt didn't play so no action on the bet.

[noober]

Play for tomorrow:

Pironkova over Dulgheru at 3.75 (bet365) 1 unit

Probability of winning: ~33%

Pironkova will be full of confidence after beating Dementieva and I don't see Dulhgeru beeing so much better. Dulgheru won that tournament last year but that's not enough to justify the price.

[noober]

Adding a play:

Wozniacki over Zheng at 1.719 (pinnacle) 1.5 units

[noober]

Probability of Wozniacki winning: ~ 65%

[noober]

Pironkova loses 6-4 7-5
Wozniacki retires after first set, which is a loss in pinnacle.

Daily record: 0-2 for -2.3 units
Record so far: 2-2 for +1.42 units

[noober]

Yani over Hocevar at 1.926 (Pinnacle) 1.3 units

Probability of winning: ~60%

Yani is at the end of his career and will give it all to try to qualify to his third Grand Slam, after qualifying last year at Wimbledon and US open. He surprised me with two good wins over typical claycourters so I think he will overcome Hocevar.

[birdmanweezy]

good luck excellent thread

[noober]

Yani with an easy win: 6-2 6-3

Daily record: 1-0 for 1.2083 units
Record so far: 3-2 for 2.62 units

[Goat Milk]

[noober]

Zheng over Dulgheru at 2.46 (pinnacle) .8 units

Probability: ~45%

[VOJVODINA]

Good pick

[tailmypicks]

taking zheng too

[Mikail]

I also have Zheng here. GL

[noober]

The value was with her but she lost.

Updated record: 3-3 for +1.62 units.

[noober]

French Open Day 1

The French Open starts tomorrow and I am very excited. Here are my first plays:

Cirstea over Kuznetsova at 5.34 (pinnacle) .5 units
Probability of winning: ~25%

Kuznetsova is the defending champion, but she is currently very out of shape. She has lost four of her last matches and I was able to watch some of them. She didn’t seem to moving well and was making ton of unforced errors. Cirstea will have a lot to play for as she needs to defend quarterfinal points from last year. If she loses this match her ranking will drop and she will have to play qualifications for the top events. The Romanian hasn’t been very impressive lately, losing in the first round to an average player like Baltacha. But I am relying on Kuzntesova losing this match, rather than Cirstea winning it so I am not reaaly concerned with Sorana’s recent form. The two have met only once before with Kuznetsova winning 7-6 6-1 in the 2008 US Open.

Vesnina over Petkovic at 3.37 (Betfair with 5% commission included) .5 units
Probability of winning:~ 33%

I do think that Petkovic is the better player as of late and she should win this match, but the odds on Vesnina are too high to pass. Petkovic recently won matches against good players (Errani, Rezai, Penetta) so that’s the reason for Petkovic being the favorite. In addition, there has been some heavy betting on the German, which changed the prices significantly:

05/22 08:25 2.83 / 1.50
05/22 08:28 2.87 / 1.49
05/22 08:29 2.92 / 1.48
05/22 08:31 3.04 / 1.45
05/22 08:32 3.06 / 1.44
05/22 10:08 2.98 / 1.46
05/22 10:09 2.90 / 1.48
05/22 12:20 2.97 / 1.47
05/22 12:25 3.08 / 1.44
05/22 13:47 3.21 / 1.41
05/22 17:10 3.28 / 1.40
05/22 18:01 3.32 / 1.39
05/22 18:16 3.30 / 1.40

The two have met once before, but that was back in 2006 so that match has little meaning. Anyway, Elena Vesnina won very easily- 6-2 6-4.


Azarenka over Dulko at 1.5 (bet365) 1 unit

Probability of winning: 70%


Viktoria Azarenka is the much better player and if she realizes her potential she should be top 3 and win couple of slams. They have met three times in the past and Azarenka leads the series 2-1. I think the reason for the good price on Azarenka is her recent injury, which prevented her from finishing three matches in the last month!!! I am not sure how serious that injury is, but I know that she will do her best this time given the importance of the tournament. However, I am not willing to go against the risk of retirement so I am placing the bet in bet365, where tennis matches are voided in case of retirement regardless of the score.


Falla over Tipsarevic at 2.39 (pinnacle) .5 units
Probability of winning: ~ 45%

Tipsarevic is the better player and should definitely win this match if both of them are healthy. However, that is not the case. Tipsarevic has been battling an injury since the start of the season and just when he recovered he got the flu. He hasn’t played many matches and the lack of tournament rhythm will hurt him against Falla. I am not ruling out the possibility of a retirement from the Serbian so this bet is placed in pinnacle, where only a set must be completed for the bet to have action.

Good luck.

[noober]

Cirstea lost 6-3 6-1
Vesnina lost 4-6 6-1 6-4
Falla up 2-0 sets and looking good.
Azarenka about to start.

[JNic]

tough day, but good stuff with falla like the knowledge of info

[noober]

Yeah, tough day.

Daily record: 1-3 for -1.3 units
Updated record: 4-6 for +.32 units

[noober]

French Open Day 2

There were some very big upsets in the first day of the French Open with both Azarenka and Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez losing in straight sets. I see couple of potential upsets for tomorrow, though nothing too big. So here are my plays for tomorrow:


Arnaud Clement over Dolgopolov at 3.15 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~40%

Dolgopolov had a pretty average clay court season, with most of his wins coming on the challenger tour, but last week he got a surprising win over Montanes and then pushed Gasquet to three sets. If it wasn’t for those two matches I think the bookmakers would have had this match at close to even odds. It is important to note that Clement is not a typical clay courter and plays much better on hard courts. However, when it comes to the French Open he leaves everything on the court so there is no question he is going to show his best tomorrow. The two have never met before so it will be interesting to see how their styles match. It could be a five set battle.

Thomaz Bellucci over Michael Llodra at 1.568 (Pinnacle) 2 units
Probability of winning: ~70%

Bellucci is a typical clay courter with wins over some of the best players on this surface. On the contrary, Llodra is much better on faster surfaces and his game doesn’t fit very well on clay. His serve doesn’t do as much damage and his opponents have more time to counter his serve and volley style. There is just one factor that scares me a little bit. Llodra plays extremely well in front of home crowd and you can see that over 50% of his ranking points come from tournaments in France (Lyon, Marseille, and Bordeaux). However, the difference in class is very different so I am definitely going with Bellucci at that price. Again, there is no head to head history between these two players. I expect the spread to be around -4 on Bellucci, in which case I am strongly considering adding a play. Pinnacle should have these numbers by tomorrow so expect a follow up.


Alona Bondarenko over Vera Dushevina at 1.778 (Pinnacle) 1.2 units
Probability of winning: ~66%

Dushevina is a very up and down player and when she shows her best she can stay competitive with the top players. Last week, she pushed Serena Williams to three sets ( 7-6, 6-7, 6-7) and I think this match is factored in the price more than it should be. On the other hand, it is not rare for the Russian to have an off day and lose to some inferior players, such as Bychkova (Pataya, 2010). As for Alona Bondarenko, I think she deserves a place in the top 10 and it won’t be far until she gets there. She has already demonstrated her potential with easy wins over top players, such as Jankovic and Wozniacki. Dushevina has won two of the tree matches between the two, but the matches were either on hard courts or four years ago so they have little meaning.

Good luck for tomorrow.