Noober's tennis picks

**noober** · 07-11-10, 04:52 PM

One more value play:

Andreas Beck over Zeballos at 2.51 (Pinnalce) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 45%

Zeballos coming from Davis Cup where he played on hard courts and Beck will have the home crowd on his side.

**Tsonga** · 07-12-10, 07:04 AM

I don't know about the Beck pick...Zeballos is a decent clay courter...but it seems like some money is being put on Beck here.

**JNic** · 07-12-10, 07:19 AM

yea zeballos is making that quick transition from indoor hard, plus zeballos definitely celebrated with the team. it's a real good dog, beck is capable

**noober** · 07-12-10, 08:02 AM

Didn't realize Beck's match is tomorrow. That changes things a little and with the favorable line movement (Beck is now at 2.18) I may decide to hedge it. Will let you know.

**beefcake** · 07-12-10, 08:16 AM

Like it noober!

**noober** · 07-12-10, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by noober

Not a big fan of parlays but I am going to have one for tomorrow:

Hanescu over Chiudinelli at 1.36
Chrady over Gimneo Traver at 1.488

Parlaying it in Pinnacle at 2.02 (1.5 units)

Probability : ~ 58%

GL.

Hanescu blosw the parlay. Beck's match will be tomorrow.

Daily record: 0-1 for -1.5 units
So far: 28-30 for +6.9 units

**noober** · 07-12-10, 04:10 PM

Adding a play for tomorrow:

Alize Cornet over Zakopalova at 2.46 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 50%

**birdmanweezy** · 07-12-10, 09:34 PM

good luck noober

**noober** · 07-13-10, 01:27 AM

Originally posted by noober

Adding a play for tomorrow:

Alize Cornet over Zakopalova at 2.46 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 50%

Apparently, Zakopalova withdrew so Cornet will be playing a lucky loser. This bet is void.

**noober** · 07-13-10, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by noober

One more value play:

Andreas Beck over Zeballos at 2.51 (Pinnalce) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 45%

Zeballos coming from Davis Cup where he played on hard courts and Beck will have the home crowd on his side.

Beat the closing line by a lot but still a loss.

today: 0-1 for -1 units
so far: 28-31 for +5.9 units

**noober** · 07-14-10, 02:07 PM

One play for tomorrow:

Cornet over Schnyder at 2.66 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 47.5%

**noober** · 07-15-10, 05:35 AM

Originally posted by noober

One play for tomorrow:

Cornet over Schnyder at 2.66 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 47.5%

loss

record so far: 28-32 for +4.9 units

**noober** · 07-16-10, 02:47 AM

Plays for today:

Errani over Kanepi at 2.39 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 45%

Parlay:

Niculescu/Szavay over Dzehalevich/Poutchek and Lindstedt/Tecau over Bracciali/Starace at 2.15 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 52.5%

**noober** · 07-17-10, 04:29 AM

Originally posted by noober

Plays for today:

Errani over Kanepi at 2.39 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 45%

Parlay:

Niculescu/Szavay over Dzehalevich/Poutchek and Lindstedt/Tecau over Bracciali/Starace at 2.15 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 52.5%

Errani lost 6-2 6-2
Parlay still pending

record: 28-33 for +3.9 units

**noober** · 07-17-10, 04:32 AM

Today:

Schnyder -2.5 over Strycova at 1.855 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 60%

**noober** · 07-18-10, 07:12 AM

Originally posted by noober

Plays for today:

Errani over Kanepi at 2.39 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 45%

Parlay:

Niculescu/Szavay over Dzehalevich/Poutchek and Lindstedt/Tecau over Bracciali/Starace at 2.15 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 52.5%

Parlay is a winner.

**noober** · 07-18-10, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by noober

Today:

Schnyder -2.5 over Strycova at 1.855 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 60%

Loss.

Record: 29-34 for +4.05 units

**legendmatt34** · 07-18-10, 08:17 AM

kanepi wins today.. lock it up

**noober** · 07-18-10, 08:19 AM

well, i am not playing the match but Kanepi at +200 or above has value imo.

**JNic** · 07-18-10, 09:16 AM

yea i see pennetta dropped from -300 to -175 at my book. crazy money coming in on kanepi

**noober** · 07-19-10, 02:39 AM

Value Tennis Plays for Today

Not much going on at my job so I am looking at lines and decided to post couple of plays for today. I really like playing dogs at those smaller tourneys’ first rounds as you never know who is going to show up ready to play and who is going to tank. So here we go:

Andreas Beck over Jan Hajek at 2.34 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability: ~ 45%

There is just no way Beck was at even odds against a solid clay courter like Zeballos and now he is a fairly good dog against Hajek. This tournament is in Germany as well so he is having the home court advantage. Of course, Andreas Beck is not a good clay courter but he will have his chance against Hajek, who hasn’t played a tournament since the Davis Cup tie against Chile.

Simon Greul over Simone Bolelli at 1.909 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability: ~ 60%

Greul has been playing very well recently and got a very prestigious win against Simon last week. On the other hand, Bolelli has played mostly on the challenger tour so I don’t see a reason why these two are priced at closed to even odds. Actually, this is probably because Bolelli destroyed him in Rome earlier this year but at that time he was playing close to his best tennis and almost beat Verdasco. For the Italians, the master in Rome is the most important tournament so you have to factor that. Now, Greul will have the home court advantage and I think he will find a way to win this.

Ekaterina Makarova -3 over Ana Chakvetadze at 2 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability: ~ 55%

It’s always risky playing a Russian, and now we have two Russians playing each other. Most of the time you will find the value with the dog, but in this case the two are of different class and I think it’s worth laying the chalk with Makarova. However, I am just playing the handicap to avoid losing a lot on a fixed match or a mental breakdown by a Russian. Makarova had an amazing grass court season and is full of confidence now and I think she will win easily against Chakvetadze, who is trying to find her game back after terrorists broke into her house and beat her Dad.

Ioana Olaru -3.5 over Worle at 1.99 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability: ~ 57%

Olaru is a tough Romanian and fights till the last point in every match so I am not afraid of tanking here. On the other side, she faces Kathrin Woerle, who doesn’t have any significant experience on the WTA tour. She is outside of the top 100 and her rare meetings with top players have been beatings. Once again, I am not willing to lay the chalk so I am going with the handicap. I think this will be a 6-2 6-3 match or something of this sort so I think she will cover with ease. Let’s hope I am right.

Good Luck.

**jojo85** · 07-19-10, 04:12 AM

like your handicap picks a lot.

**Goat Milk** · 07-19-10, 05:27 AM

good luck. i might take hajek here he has been on fire on clay, Davis Cup was just a little while ago. Hajek has done well in some of the lower-level tourneys he's played in I think he can handle Beck here.

**noober** · 07-19-10, 05:33 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

good luck. i might take hajek here he has been on fire on clay, Davis Cup was just a little while ago. Hajek has done well in some of the lower-level tourneys he's played in I think he can handle Beck here.

No doubt Hajek is the favorite here but I am giving him 55% chance of winning so the value is with Beck.

**PetrGasparik** · 07-19-10, 05:40 AM

I am on Hajek too due to his clay history, but GL to you anyway. I am watching your tips closely.

**nicsbr** · 07-19-10, 06:49 AM

greul

**Goat Milk** · 07-19-10, 09:06 AM

what site are you using to watch these matches?

**noober** · 07-19-10, 09:14 AM

usually bet365, but not when i am at work.

atdhe.net works as well

**Carpster** · 07-19-10, 09:57 AM

Let's hope this match gets better because this chick already lost 6-1 in the first set. Horrible start for someone who was -200 ML. I've got a grand on her and it doesn't look good.

Ioana Olaru -3.5 over Worle at 1.99 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability: ~ 57%

Olaru is a tough Romanian and fights till the last point in every match so I am not afraid of tanking here. On the other side, she faces Kathrin Woerle, who doesn’t have any significant experience on the WTA tour. She is outside of the top 100 and her rare meetings with top players have been beatings. Once again, I am not willing to lay the chalk so I am going with the handicap. I think this will be a 6-2 6-3 match or something of this sort so I think she will cover with ease. Let’s hope I am right.

**Carpster** · 07-19-10, 09:57 AM

Let's hope this match gets better because this chick already lost 6-1 in the first set. Horrible start for someone who was -200 ML. I've got a grand on her and it doesn't look good.

Ioana Olaru -3.5 over Worle at 1.99 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability: ~ 57%

Olaru is a tough Romanian and fights till the last point in every match so I am not afraid of tanking here. On the other side, she faces Kathrin Woerle, who doesn’t have any significant experience on the WTA tour. She is outside of the top 100 and her rare meetings with top players have been beatings. Once again, I am not willing to lay the chalk so I am going with the handicap. I think this will be a 6-2 6-3 match or something of this sort so I think she will cover with ease. Let’s hope I am right.

**Carpster** · 07-19-10, 10:02 AM

Your 6-1 prediction was correct, except you got the wrong player. This pick, that I layed a grand on, is losing horribly.

Ioana Olaru -3.5 over Worle at 1.99 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability: ~ 57%

Olaru is a tough Romanian and fights till the last point in every match so I am not afraid of tanking here. On the other side, she faces Kathrin Woerle, who doesn’t have any significant experience on the WTA tour. She is outside of the top 100 and her rare meetings with top players have been beatings. Once again, I am not willing to lay the chalk so I am going with the handicap. I think this will be a 6-2 6-3 match or something of this sort so I think she will cover with ease. Let’s hope I am right.

**Carpster** · 07-19-10, 10:03 AM

Your 6-1 prediction was correct, except you got the wrong player. This pick, that I layed a grand on, is losing horribly.

Ioana Olaru -3.5 over Worle at 1.99 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability: ~ 57%

Olaru is a tough Romanian and fights till the last point in every match so I am not afraid of tanking here. On the other side, she faces Kathrin Woerle, who doesn’t have any significant experience on the WTA tour. She is outside of the top 100 and her rare meetings with top players have been beatings. Once again, I am not willing to lay the chalk so I am going with the handicap. I think this will be a 6-2 6-3 match or something of this sort so I think she will cover with ease. Let’s hope I am right.

**noober** · 07-19-10, 10:34 AM

Sorry to hear you tailed me on this one.

**noober** · 07-19-10, 10:35 AM

Did you play the handicap as I suggested ot just the ML?

**noober** · 07-19-10, 10:37 AM

Because the ML looks very good now.