Value is on svitolina and bautista agut today, whaddya think Lightning?
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Comment -
Alrightyyy, couple of last plays to finish off the week.
WTA NEW HAVEN
- Radwanska -3.5 games - $1.7 (BET365) - ONE STAKE
I had Petra Kvitova in a futures bet, and I was quietly confident going into her semi. I was wrong, completely wrong. Radwanska is just such a clean, classy player. She doesn't have huge power, but she gets everything back, and will use angles, changes pace, drop shots and pure consistency to get the better of her opponents. She runs around the court well, and has great hands low down or at the net. Most importantly, she is ridiculously clutch under pressure. I don't think there is a better pressure player on the women's tour, and in a final, this is so important.
Svitolina was also impressive against Larsson, but she has a power game. If she's on, she'll dominate lower players (Larsson and everyone else). She hasn't faced someone of amazing quality this week yet, though, and she will today in Radwanska. I can see both players exchanging breaks early, but Radwanska's cool head and experience should give her a victory. Svitolina would have to play absolutely out of her skin to even cover the line, let alone win (assuming Agnieska doesn't drop her level - and I don't think she will).
ATP WINSTON-SALEM
- Agut 2-0 - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Agut -3.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
My man Agut is in the finals, against the consistent Carreno-Busta. Honestly, this will go one way in my eyes. CB is solid, as I said. Agut, however, is a class above and he should win pretty comfortably.
CHALLENGER MANNERBIO
- Mayer x Krajinovic - $1.7 - HALF STAKE
Finally, a cheeky challenger multi. Both these guys should win if they play to their abilities.Comment -
Hard game imo. I am on Carreno-Busta + 3,5 @2,02 and ml @3,24. Playing well so far with straight sets into the tourney. Agut had some trouble with 3 set loses and yesterday the harder semi final before the US Open.
Last game @US Open 2015 (simular surface) was a cclose one (3-2 Agut).
I think we will see a close game, with pro points Busta in the third set. May the better one win this
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You were right, John. Agut was probably slightly unlucky being a set and break up, but CB clearly wanted it more.Comment -
US time... as usual, see a fair bit of value. I'm not going to cover womens at first because I find I'm better at mens, and as long there's a lot to choose from in the mens, I not going to bother with the opposite sex. I don't like doing this, because there will undoubtedly be a lot of value I'm missing out on, but if I do both at first, the amount of plays will balloon up into something that's uncontrollable.
US OPEN - MENS - ALL ONE STAKE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Benneteau +3 games (Pinnacle) - $1.85
Benneteau has shown enough lately for me to think that he has a chance against a lukewarm hard court player. Ramos had a fantastic clay season but his hard court form has been woeful. The Frenchman has the experience to take this game on, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a five setter.
- Lacko to WIN - $1.9 - TWO STAKES
Escobedo has been good recently, but I have watched him in the past, and I'm not really that impressed. Like a lot of lower level players, the basics are there but the consistency is not. Lacko has been around for a while, and has a much more controlled game. He won't go beating good players, but even money to beat Escobedo is too much for me to pass up.
- Darcis -3.5 games - $1.9
Darcis is a former top fifty player. He was out for a while with an injury, and since returning to competition, has gone 14-3. Granted, most of those were on clay court, but still against good clay court players. Thompson has a good serve and a decent game, but Darcis has the experience, consistency and the hunger to beat him. I'm predicting a pretty comfortable victory for the Belgian.
- Klizan to WIN - $1.75
I'm pretty sure Klizan is only this high because he hasn't played on hard for a while. Otherwise, it's ridiculous. Youzhny was once a general on the court, but time spares nobody and his powers have been reduced. He's still able to beat pretty much anyone outside the top fifty pretty easily, but Kilzan has a ripping forehand and has been in great touch this year.
- Monfils -4.5 games - $1.8 - TWO STAKES
Monfils (or 'my son' in a literal French translation) has been a line covering machine on this US hard court swing. I'm backing him again here.
- Kovalik to WIN - $2.3
Pospisil has won eight of 29 matches this year. That is NOT a fantastic stat. Kovalik has come through qualifying, and qualifiers often play above their usual level because they've really had to EARN their place. The Slovakian isn't a mug player.
- Nadal -7.5 games - $1.8 - TWO STAKES
- Nadal -11.5 games - $8.5 - HALF STAKE
Love the top line. Nadal tries to win every point, which is great when you're laying games. Istomin was once good but is now pretty 'meh'.
- Anderson to WIN 3-0 - $3.1 (Pinnacle - for the price. Other bookies are all around $2.4-2.6)
I thought about this for a while. At first, I was like, 'Nishioka is a goood price'. But then I thought about it further, and I realised that the prices are pretty much what I would've thought. If anything, the value is on Anderson. Nishioka has been in good form, beating some solid players recently. BUT, in a grand slam, against a guy that generally plays pretty well here, I don't think he'll do as well.
- Lajovic +4 (Pinnacle) - $1.85
Pretty simple play here. Don't see either of these guys being good enough to close this out in three sets, which would indicate the overs, but Paire always screws up the games he shouldn't, so just in case he goes full meltdown (or full Paire, I should say), I'm hitting up Lajovic's line. If he wins a set, which he should, that line will go to +6 or +7, and that should be enough for the rest of the game.
- Vesely to WIN 3-0 - $2.5
Vesely won't take his foot off the pedal here. He's made leaps and bounds in terms of his consistency this year, and Myneni should cause him any issues.
- Andreozzi +8.5 games - $1.7 (Bet365)
Andreozzi showed a lot in the qualifiers, and Tsonga is never someone who puts his foot down for the entire game.
- Mannarino to WIN - $2.3 - TWO STAKES
Don't get me wrong - Harrison has been playing well lately. There is no way in hell, however, that Mannarino should be that much of an outsider, or even an outsider at all. Out of all the plays so far, I would have to say that this one is the one with the most value.
Cheers, and good luck to all!Comment -
Will open up my own thread soon but here aremy thoughts on some of your selections:
I agree:
Benneteau, Darcis, Nadal - though i will not pick any of them.
I disagree:
Monfils and Kovalik.
I mean Muller is no gimme an La Monf is such a fragile player. He withdrew from his last match he can easily do the same against power horse of Muller.
Kovalik qualified as LL so not sure he is in a good form but certainly Pospisil can be beaten.Comment -
Not the best start, with -3.5 units on the first day, but I'm confident, as always, in pulling it back. I started with -7 last week, and got it back to an even keel.
US OPEN - MENS - ALL ONE STAKE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Evans to WIN x Khachanov/Fabbiano OVER 3.5 sets - $2.3
Evans is in career best form right now, and Ram is nearing the twilight of his career. He's a clever player, but ultimately does not have the game to push top players. Khachanov and Fabbiano would know each other a lot from the challenger circuit, and neither of them are good enough to beat the other in straight sets.
- Kyrgios 3-0 x Lorenzi to WIN - $2.3
Berlocq has played one hard court match this year, and lost. He's pretty grouse on it. Lorenzi is by no means a master, but he's much better than the Argentine. The Italian has had a pretty decent year, and should be winning this.
- Mayer x Kohlscreiber x Thiem - $2.5
Mayer has actually had a pretty sensational comeback this year, with an ATP title in Halle and two challenger titles back to back before coming here. Zeballos is a solid player, but Mayer has his number.
I think Kohlscreiber is a little underrated. At one point during the year, he was my go-to man - not losing a single match as favourite. While I'm pretty sure that that record is broken, his baseline game will be enough to beat Mahut - who you'd imagine would be much more focused on doubles.
- Carreno-Busta to WIN 3-0 - $2
I talk CB up quite a lot, saying that he wins when he's supposed to and loses when he's supposed to. I might need to revise that after his season so far, because he's now beating players that I wouldn't think he could beat. He's in career best form and full of confidence. Ivashka is solid on the Challenger circuit, but it's a big step up and I think he'll be soundly beaten.
- Dimitrov/Cervantes UNDER 29.5 - $1.80
I'm basing this play off how Diimi has played in the last couple of weeks - which is very well. Cervantes won't give an in-form Grigor much trouble, and I'm taking the o/u rather than +/- because it gives me a couple of extra games if it's only three sets. I think it'll only be 3 sets, and if it goes to a tiebreak, then the line's not likely to be covered anyway.
- Estrella +5.5 games - $1.7
Honestly, this play is because I don't think Sousa deserves to be this much of a favourite. He hasn't really impressed me this season, and Estrella has the experience to capitalise. This strikes me as a potential five setter.
- Karlovic/Lu UNDER 44.5 games - $1.8
I'll be honest, if the total is 44.5, I'm taking the unders. That's ridiculous, even with Ivo's serve/return skills.
- Ferrer -5.5 games - $2.1
I told myself I wouldn't take Ferrer again, but the match-up got me. I used to really like Dolgopolov as a player, but he's fallen off the wagon and can't find a way back on at the moment. Regardless of how Ferrer's game has deteriorated, he's still very solid. Dolgopolov isg oing to have to put in a lot of work - something he hasn't been doing recently. I'm thinking 3-0 Ferrer, but even 3-1 might still be able to cover the line.
- Coric to WIN - $2.6 (Pinnacle)
Who could forget his epic match against Nadal last year?
Lopez is inconsistent at his best, and I feel that Coric has been improving quite a bit recently in his play. He took out Paire, Kyrgios and Nadal (none of them easy match-ups) in Cinncinati, demonstrating that his killer backhand is still potent as ever. I think these odds are a little high.
- Simon/Stepanek OVER 39.5 - $2
Stepanek is a fighter, and will bring it up to Simon. I'm actually more worried about the Frenchman - he's been that poor lately. Regardless, I don't see either of these players winning in straights.
Cheers!Comment -
nice write-up as usual, most of them are against my thoughts which is fine.
3-0 plays are the no-no's for me.
Karlo's total is indeed huge...but then again if it was something around 41 or 41.5 I would take over without hesitation and 44.5 is just 3 games more...I assume there should be at least couple of tie-breakers....and if so then even 4 sets can cover this total.
Thumbs up on Simon's over, that cant go wrong.
Good Luck anyways, especially on that kohlschreiber pick....Comment -
Nothing wrong with a difference in opinion ahaha
I don't usually like taking straight set victories, but when you're getting such good odds, it's hard not to take it.
Good luck to yours as wel
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Late money coming in on ramComment -
Ram toast. Nice hitComment -
Loss of -0.4 for the night... grrr. So annoying when players have ample opportunity to break i.e Dimitrov, but don't.Comment -
Re: Dimitrov, already looking at that over 37.5 against Chardy in two days, can see 4 sets without a doubtComment -
Alrighty, Day three. Slightly less mens matches, so had time to go through and pick out a few womens that I really like.
US OPEN - MENS - ALL ONE STAKE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Edmund -5.5 games - $1.8
Got burnt by Lacko's retirement last round, but I'm confident in my assessment of Escobedo: He's a promising youngster, but still remarkably inconsistent with his only real strength being a good serve. Edmund hasn't had the meteoric rise of the other next gen stars, but is slowly getting better and better. The win over Gasquet will have him in a positive frame of mind. He'll play an attacking brand of tennis, and even if there is a tiebreak in one set, I'm confident Edmund has enough class and consistency to cover this line.
- Anderson -4.5 games - $1.7
It's Pospisil, and thus, I'm fading. Anderson has the points to defend, and showed no sign of any mental demons in his match against Nishioka.
- Paire +3.5 games - $1.8
I'll hit Paire when he's an underdog. He seems to win the games he's not supposed to, and make hard work of the ones that he's not. I'm expecting a loonnngggg game here, and in long games, taking the games is the best idea.
- Monfils -9.5 games - $1.85 - TWO STAKES
Covered his line as predicted last game against Muller, and his train is showing no signs of stopping. It's a massive line, but he's going to have an advantage in every point played.
- Bautista-Agut -6.5 games - $1.7 (Sportsbet)
Honestly, I don't think Delbonis is that great a player on this type of faster surface. He's playing a guy who's in good form this year and plays an aggressive game.
- Pouille -5.5 games - $1.7
This play comes down to whether you trust Pouille's level, or not. If you don't, you take the over, or Chiudinelli's handicap. After watching him, I think he's the real deal, and if he gets going in this type of match-up, expect a comfortable victory. He should be winning regardless of whether he covers the line or not.
- Nadal -8.5 games - $1.85 - TWO STAKES
US OPEN - WOMENS - ALL ONE STAKE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Johanna Konta -4.5 games - $1.9
Konta's results speak for themselves. Her best surface is hard, and although Pironkova also likes the faster courts, Konta should be winning this one with a 6-3 6-2 kind of scoreline.
- Vinci to WIN - $1.9 - TWO STAKES
Ridiculous value. Vinci has points, pride, ranking and reputation to defend, has a 2-0 h2h record and has a game that suits the faster surface, and yet she's priced at evens? I know she's deteriorated a bit lately, but her slices and rush game on this surface is deadly.Comment -
Booomm, 3/3 so far tonight, and +3.3 for the night so far. Let's hope it keeps up.Comment -
Okay, a +4.3 unit for the night, and +0.4 for the tournament overall. All my futures picks are in play and looking good. Raonic's loss makes Monfils' path quite a bit easier, but the way Nadal is playing atm, I'm a bit scared haha.
US OPEN - MENS- ALL ONE STAKE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Carreno-Busta/Tipsarevic OVER 37.5 games - $1.9
CB has been playing very, very well all season, but especially in the last week and a half. My one concern though is possible fatigue. He showed the first sign of it last match, being broken multiple times by Ivashka, but then rallying back and winning 3-0. Tipsarevic had a win over Querrey, which would have done wonders for his confidence. Neither guy is infallible on serve at the moment, so I can see a few breaks traded, and thus, I don't think either wins in straight sets.
- Mahut/Mathieu OVER 38.5 - $1.9
Mathieu has a fast, aggressive game style with sweeping strokes. Mahut loves the faster courts because he has a serve and volley style. Both players have games suited to this fast court, and thus I think both of them will grab at least a set each, and as we've seen, that's generally enough to push the total OVER.
- Thiem -7.5 games - $2
I can't give you a definitive answer about why this will happen - it's just a play that should really happen. Thiem had a massively long game against Millman in the first round, and the last thing he'd want is another drawn out match in the summer heat. If I was him, I'd be looking to close out the game as quickly as possible, and Berankis is not someone who's going to put up a huge fight if Thiem gets on top. The first set might be tight, but like the Anderson/Pospisil game last night, I expect the second and third sets to be more blown out.
- Karlovic -2.5 games - $1.7
Karlovic should really be winning this 3-0 - the courts suit his game pretty well. His huge height allows him to find angles on serve that others can't. Young has very few weapons other than the crowd support.
- Dzumhur to WIN - $1.8 - TWO STAKES
Pretty confident in this play. I watched extended highlights (over an hour) of the Tomic/Dzumhur match, and I was so impressed by the way the Bosnian went about dismantling Tomic. He's so quick around the court, and uses that speed and fitness to get everything back. He'll be unorthodox and go up the line on balls that he's stretched on to throw opponents off. Any sign of a floaty ball or slice, and he's at the net to finish the point off. His serves aren't super fast, but they're exactly where they need to be to get the return Dzumhur wants. Overall, he looked like a top player, and if he continues in that vein against Marchenko, will do really well.
- Ferrer -4.5 games - $1.9
Fognini has never, ever beaten Ferrer. For a long time, the Spaniard was just so solid, and Fognini really wasn't. Even now, I think in a grand slam, Ferrer is still playing at a level good enough to cover 4.5 games against an opponent who's been his bunny for so long. I'm confident in the veteran tonight.
US OPEN - WOMENS- ALL ONE STAKE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Bacsinszky -4.5 games - $1.9 - TWO STAKES
- Stosur x V. Williams x Halep - $2.1
Cheers!Comment -
Strangely I like all picks here
Karlovic I doubt will win 3-zip but then again -2.5 he can get even if loosing 1 set.
Both overs for sure. Probably will take Mahut/Mathiue as well..
Thiem got massive spread to cover but that Lithuanian has tendency to give out 0-6 sets....Comment -
Surely a first
haha
Comment -
US OPEN MENS - ALL ONE STAKE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Marin Cilic -4.5 games - $1.9
- Gael Monfils -6.5 games - $2 - TWO STAKES
- Pouille/Bautista-Agut OVER 34.5 games - $1.7 (Sportsbet)
- John Isner to WIN 3-0 - $3
- Nadal -7.5 games - $1.9 - THREE STAKES
US OPEN WOMENS - ALL ONE STAKE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Vinci -3.5 games - $1.7
- Bencic to WIN - $2.3Comment -
Might add another unit on my Sportsbet account despite the odds that's too good to pass up
For the overs on Bautista and PouilleComment -
I just hope someone doesn't phone it in, I can't see Bautista losing in three so if pouille wins a set consider it $$$Comment -
Where u at mate lol. We need youComment -
haha, had a big night, didn't have time to post. Glad you actually like the tips bud
Comment -
haha thanks mate, there are a lot of good people here now so I'm sure there's always one of us to follow!
US OPEN - MENS - ONE STAKE EACH UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Monfils -6.5 games - $1.9 - TWO STAKES
Again, no reason to not hit on Monfils. He's covered 2/3 lines this tourney, and went on a huge line-covering run before that. Baghdatis has been good but nothing to trouble Gael the way he's playing at the moment.
- Tsonga -1.5 games - $1.8 (bet365) - TWO STAKES
- Tsonga 3-0 - $4 - HALF STAKE
The value is all on Tsonga here. Sock played really well against Cilic, but the scoreline makes me wonder a bit about Cilic's actual headspace going into the game. If Sock beaten him 3-2, or 3-1, I'd give him a bit more respect, but 3-0 against a guy as good as Cilic means there was probably something else going on. Tsonga beat the powerful but wayward Anderson in straights, and his consistency and shot selection should be far too much for the American here. Also a cheeky dabble on the straight sets.
- Nadal -8.5 games - $2
I just want to say that I would absolutely LOVE Pouille to win, purely for the story. The fact remains, however, that Nadal has been absolutely blitzing guys so far at this tournament, and although Pouille's been good, you can't back against the trend.
US OPEN - WOMENS - ONE STAKE EACH UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Vinci -3.5 games - $1.7
- Wozniacki/Keys OVER 21.5 games - $1.9
Caroline's always shown glimpses of quality but never really backs them up for extended periods of time when it actually matters. Keys, on the other hand, is a little more consistently good. She definitely deserves to be favourite, but she's been shaky at some points during her three matches so far. Wozniacki's been solid as a rock, with her win over Kuznetsova being a highlight. I'm taking the over in a game where I think Wozniacki has a very solid shot at winning.
- Kerber -3.5 games - $1.8 - TWO STAKES
Cheers guys, and good luck!Comment -
I like Woz too. Sock is never a bad fade in 5 sets during the day.Comment -
Hi guys
Do you know Boylesports has a promo at present for refund as free bets for any losing pre-match bet if the match goes 5 sets? It is only for 25 gbp or euros but since Boyles have some decent prices it works out a pretty good offer. US Mens matches only.
This can add great value in certain bets. Like Lightning's tip Tsonga -1.5 which is also 1.8 at Boyles. There is a good chance if this bet loses the match will have gone 5 sets, and you'll get free bets.
Anyway, I have no connection to Boyles, just appreciate good posting in this tennis forum and wanted to help anyone who might not know of this offer.Comment -
BAdum Boom, +3.3 for the night with Kerber, Tsonga and Monfils hitting as two stake plays. Happy that Pouille got through and slightly annoyed that I called Wozniacki winning but took overs rather than her handicap but you can't win them all I suppose.Comment -
+3.3 for the night, onwards and upwards.
US OPEN - MENS - ONE STAKE EACH UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- First Set Three Way Game Handicap: Del Potro -1.0 - $1.88 (Sportsbet)
Thiem has a known habit of dropping first sets before romping home afterwards. Del Potro should really be winning this match anyway, so I'm happy to take the first set handicap.
- Stan Wawrinka to WIN 3-0 - $1.8 (Pinnacle) - TWO STAKES
Wawrinka hasn't put in convincing performances so far in this tournament but that's not worrying me too much. Quite often the best players don't until the later rounds. I don't really rate Marchenko, and I think Stan should start to crank it up a bit now. Nice price as well.
- Ivo Karlovic +5 games - $1.8 (Pinnacle - other bookies are +4.5 and I'm not getting done by the hook)
- Karlovic to WIN - $4.2 - HALF STAKE
Karlovic has a great game for this surface and he's proved it so far. Nishikori will be a challenge but he hasn't been infallible, and Ivo's good enough to get a set. I might even put something on him to win.
- Murray -6.5 games - $1.9
Heard a lot of people staying stuff like 'Murray's not going to win, he dropped a set to Lorenzi, he's not looking good etc etc'. Honestly, that means nothing. He probably just slightly underestimated Lorenzi's level and when he corrected that in the last two sets, won 6-2 6-3. Like I said before, good players often play below what they're capable of to conserve energy. Dimitrov has a pretty decent record against Murray, but there's a place and a time and this is not it.
US OPEN - WOMENS - ONE STAKE EACH UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
- Radwanska -5.5 games - $2
Radwanska's covered her line in 8 of her last 10 matches, and covered in 8 of her last 9 wins. Konjuh's been impressive so far but Agnieska is a whole different ball game.
- Halep -4.5 games - $2
Cheers!Comment -
I like this del Potro bet and Wawrinka.
h2h from Marchenko - Wawrinka was in Indian Wells march 2016, 6-3, 6-2. Wawrinka had 12 breakpoints and zero against hisself.Comment -
why halep -4.5?? i see a long match there and over games.Comment
