Lightning tennis thread

[Lightning]

Siegemund and Hradecka is nice match . Siegemund should be heavy favourite in my opinion altough H2H is interesting
I hope to see 6-3 6-2 straights
Golubic Errani game i dont know. Golubic has momentum, but Errani could still be hard to beat when its her day. Skip it

That's why that multi has a quarter stake only on it... I always love to do one multi like that a day because it's fun... and when they come off, it's a nice boost.

[Honeybadger44]

Yeah, I also can't believe the price on Vesely, whch might indicate that it's just too good to be true...

[Lightning]

F*ck yes. Just gained five units by advising my followers to dump ten on Kerber at $1.5.

[coolguy73739]

Hey Lightning, can you please ask Errani to stop breaking my fav Golubic's serve !!.. lol

[maletaja]

lol I considered Kerber-Lister Lister +7.5 I think clay or slow hard court Kerber isnt so strong and gives good opportunity to fade

[maletaja]

Lol Vesely When price seems too good to be true then its red warning

[cryptocap]

Karlovic and Monfils...seems too good to be true

[cryptocap]

Thank you boys

[Lightning]

Christ. When it rains, it pours.

[Lightning]

Slightly average week made further average by the retirement of Vesely, and of course I was on him to WIN rather than a line, so I lose rather than get money back... I made 4 units for my followers of my live plays last night on facebook, but I can't do that here, so apologies.

I can't add write ups straight away, but maybe give me an hour or two and it's possible. If not, sorry.

ATP GSTAAD

- Thiago Monteiro +4.5 games - $1.75 - ONE STAKE


ATP KITZBUHEL

- Karen Khachanov to WIN - $2.1 - ONE STAKE

- Adam Pavlasek to WIN - $1.75 (UNIBET OR PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE


ATP CROATIA

- Klizan -4.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE


ATP WASHINGTON

- Tomic/Karlovic OVER 25.5 - $1.72 - ONE STAKE

- Isner x Zverev - $1.65 - ONE STAKE

MULTI

- Bellucci x Carreno-Busta x Cuevas - $2.2 - ONE STAKE (ATP Gstaad, ATP Croatia, ATP Croatia)

- Larrsson x Kerber x Broady x Bellis x Vandeweghe - $6 - QUARTER STAKE (WTA Bastad, WTA Bastad, WTA Washington, WTA Stanford, WTA Stanford)


Cheers!

[Lightning]

Adding one more in:

ATP WASHINGTON

Benoit Paire to WIN - $2.5 - ONE STAKE

[Lightning]

Right, from this point forward I'm fading myself. No point anymore.

[cryptocap]

That Georgian B******....how?

[coolguy73739]

I had the option to cash out and walk away with some profit in 2nd set but I trusted Pavlasek so much that kept up with him even in third and lost!! What a waste.. Can anyone beat Basilashvili these days?..lol

[Lightning]

ATP GSTAAD

Albert Ramos -2.5 games - $1.77 (UNIBET) - ONE STAKE

One I don't really need to explain. Ramos has had a fantastic clay season, and I don't see him stopping here. Mathieu has been good, but Ramos has 5 wins in a row and 9 of his last 10 on clay.


Feliciano Lopez -4 games - $1.95 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

I have Lopez down as a contender to win the tourney, and his prospects just skyrocketed with Simon on the brink of losing. If the Frenchman goes down, he'll be the number one seed, with Ramos the only guy to stand in his way. Lopez will know this is a big chance to get a rare title at his age, and should be switched on. Ymer has showed a lot of guts to come back from a set down in both his previous matches, but he shouldn't have got into those positions in the first place. Someone with a bit more quality will punish him.


ATP WASHINGTON

- Karlovic to WIN - $2.35 - ONE STAKE

These guys should really be priced at evens. Karlovic is experiencing a mini-resurgence of late - winning Newport and running through Baker and Tomic enroute to the third round. What was really impressive is that he actually broke Baker and Tomic once. Quite often, matches involving big Ivo will go to two tiebreaks, but the fact that he's breaking his opponents shows that he's really engaged and not apathetic about his performance - something that you want a punter. Sock has been good, but he'll struggle to break Karlovic, and I still wonder how heavily his Davis Cup loss to Coric will weigh on his mind. I'm taking the underdog today because of his value and his seemingly improved attitude.

- Isner x Monfils - $2.4 - ONE STAKE

WTA BASTAD

- Larsson to WIN - $1.8

Larsson won this tournament last year, and considering it's her home country as well, it's definitely not a surprise to see her in the quarters of Bastad this year. Beck's been pretty good on clay this year, with a 10/17 record, but Larsson just LOVES this tournament. She hasn't dropped a set in her last seven matches. That's correct: she's won 14 sets in a row at this tournament. That indicates that the crowd really get behind her and her level raises as a consequence.

WTA STANFORD

- Konta -4.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

Konta leads the h2h 2-1, covering the game spread and the -4.5 both times she won. I was going to take the unders, but if Zheng wins a set, there's still the possibility of us winning. Konta has had a breakout season of sorts, getting to the semi-finals of the Australian Open and the quarters of Miami. She did okay in the grass season, but poorly in the clay season, and hard is definitely her best surface. She likes to attack on both wings, with deep, powerful shots. Like a lot of lower-ranked women, Zheng can definitely have her day, but she just doesn't have the consistent quality that Konta does.

MULTI

- Siegemund x Carreno-Busta - $1.75 - ONE STAKE (WTA Bastad, ATP Croatia)

Like I said before, Siegemund has won 16 of her last 21 on clay. She plays a very attacking game, moving her opponents around with deep groundstrokes. She's got power and a soft touch, as evidenced by her use of drop volleys and drop shots. Carreno-Busta is one of my favourite players purely because he generally wins when he's supposed to, and loses when he's supposed to. I can always get a read on his level.

[Honeybadger44]

i am big fan of Ramos, but I think this is a tricky matchup for him. Tournament is played in altitude conditions (fast). Mathieu plays very flat and aggressive and will take away that prep time from Ramos, which he likes to have on his forehand side with that big swing. And being rushed into some shots, I'm affraid he will not be able to put the balls as deep and precise as usual. That depth and precision is key in his game, because without that he cannot control the point in those longer rallies like he usually does.

[Lightning]

i am big fan of Ramos, but I think this is a tricky matchup for him. Tournament is played in altitude conditions (fast). Mathieu plays very flat and aggressive and will take away that prep time from Ramos, which he likes to have on his forehand side with that big swing. And being rushed into some shots, I'm affraid he will not be able to put the balls as deep and precise as usual. That depth and precision is key in his game, because without that he cannot control the point in those longer rallies like he usually does.

Very good call. It seems I underestimated Mathieu in these conditions. Disappointing nonetheless.

[Lightning]

ATP GSTAAD

- Lopez/Brown OVER 22.5 games - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

Gstaad is at an elevation of around 1000 metres. This means the air is thinner, and thus, the ball travels through the air a LOT quicker. That means that this tournament is less of a typical clay court tournament, where longer rallies dominate and players who can hit the ball deep and hard consistently will win. It's not really surprising then, to see two grass court type players dominate. Both Lopez and Brown have really good serves, and like coming into the net after them. They both play an aggressive game, but Lopez is still a little more consistent, and has a really nice slice backhand. I think Lopez wins, but with the faster conditions and great serves, these two guys should carry the total over.

- Mathieu to WIN - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

It seems I underestimated Mathieu quite a bit. As HoneyBadger said, his flatter groundstrokes hurried Ramos enough to put him off. Perhaps Ramos was also a little fatigued, playing quite a few matches over the last week and a half. Who knows if that had any effect.

Regardless, tonight he comes up against Robin Haase. Haase has a nice serve and forehand, but a fairly weak (comparatively) backhand. Matheiu, on the otherhand, has a fantastic backhand, even more in high-altitude conditions. He'll look to hammer Haase on the BH side the whole match, and then when he gets a shorter ball, control the point. The other problem with Haase is that he can be very weak mentally - if he falls behind, the body language will start to fall away.

ATP CROATIA

- Martin +4 games - $1.95 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

Martin has been exceptional this tournament. In his first match against Stakhovsky, he came back from two breaks down in the first set. In his second match against Klizan, he lost the first set and then twice came back from a break down, saving no less than FIVE match points in the process, and then pounded Klizan in the deciding set. Against Sousa, he did the same thing. His mental strength has been phenomenal. Berlocq has also been impressive, but he was helped by a Vesely retirement. Had Vesely been full strength, I don't think Berlocq would be sitting the SF today. Berlocq dismantled Chardy, but it's important to note that around half of Berlocq's points came through Chardy unforced errors. So, while Berlocq has been a little more routine in his victories, take them with a grain of salt.

Both men have been in good clay form, so I'm not going to go into that. Berlocq generally plays (as most clay courters do) from the baseline, ripping his forehands into his opponent's backhands (ala Nadal) and cleaning up (short balls or at the net) the resulting weaker backhands. I think Berlocq is better at what he does, and is more experienced, but Martin has put in so much effort, and ground out so many good victories, that I can't see him letting Berlocq run over the top of him. I see a fairly close match.

- Fognini vs. Elias

I'm not going to give an official tip for this match, because I can't trust the level that Fognini will bring. He can be so devastating, and then so disappointing in the same game. Regardless though, you're getting a very good price for him, and 2-0 at $2.1 is pretty nice.

MULTI

- Siegemund x Larsson x Coppejeans - $4.2 - QUARTER STAKE (WTA Bastad, WTA Bastad, Challenger Tampere)

ATP WASHINGTON

- Karlovic to WIN - $2.2 - ONE STAKE

Both Johnson and Karlovic have been so, so impressive in this tournament (and Karlovic in the last couple of weeks). Neither have dropped a set, and both have played really good tennis. Karlovic is playing as well as I've seen in a long, long time. I spoke yesterday about him being more 'mentally focused', and he showed that again. Winning tiebreaks is no easy thing, and he beat Sock in both (one in which he was behind). His serve has been impregnable, but he's also been more willing to rally and actually break his opponents.

Johnson beat Isner (which annoyed me, I must say) early this morning, and also did so via two tiebreaks. It's unusual for Isner to fold like he did, and I wonder if a bit of fatigue was creeping in after the Davis Cup. Regardless, Johnson has had a great grass season and he looks to have continued that on.

The thing with Karlovic though, is that he's now won seven games in a row. He's on fire, and even though Johnson is playing well, he isn't playing well enough to be favoured by this much. Take the value in Karlovic for tomorrow morning.

- Monfils -2.5 games - $1.83 - ONE STAKE

I must admit: I did NOT think Monfils would come back this well. He was out for a couple of months with an injury and a viral infection, but has looked great and moved really well. In other words, he looks hungry. He's been present throughout his matches, conceding ONLY three break points in the three matches so far (all three against Querrey). He actually out-aced Querrey as well.

Zverev will be the Frenchman's toughest opponent so far. He's improved in leaps and bounds since the start of the year, and last year - currently sitting at number 27. He plays an aggressive game with a big serve; perfect for faster surfaces. Zverev, however, has conceded 11 break points in his three matches. While not a HUGE amount, Monfils is still good enough to pounce. While Zverev has improved a lot, Monfils is still a lot more experienced, consistent and powerful, and will pounce on any sign of a bad ball from Zverev. There will be a time where Zverev will beat Monfils, but today isn't it.

ATP TORONTO QUALIFICATION

- Stepanek/Schur UNDER 18.5 games - $1.83 (bet365) - ONE STAKE


WILL UPDATE AS i GO

[coolguy73739]

Great Call on Lopez/Brown game Mate!.. Keep it up !!.. Cheers

[cryptocap]

Dr. Ivo baby

[cryptocap]

Can Venus go 2-0 today?

[Lightning]

Ivo... so close but so far. Unbelievable.

[Lightning]

The only ATP and WTA action this week is the Rogers Cup, but there's actually quite a bit of challenger action as some ATP players play down. Not as much time to write up today because I did futures. I'll start with the challenger events...

CHALLENGER PRAGUE TWO

Michalika to WIN - $2.5 - ONE STAKE

ATP ROGERS CUP

- Troicki +3 games - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
- Muller -3.5 games - $1.85 - ONE STAKE
- Dancevic +4 games - $1.9 - (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

- Kuznetsov - x games - $x.xx - xx
- Tomic - x games - $x.xx - xx

(waiting for these two lines to be released)

WTA ROGERS CUP

- Stosur x Gavrilova - $2.7 - ONE STAKE

[Lightning]

Can fill in the missing pieces...

- Kuznetsov -2.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Tomic/Gonzalez UNDER 19.5 games - $1.85 - ONE STAKE

[cryptocap]

wtf is wrong with stosur...two straight bagels on her serve...this match should be over penetrate sakes

[GoBlue77]

wtf is wrong with stosur...two straight bagels on her serve...this match should be over penetrate sakes

stosur is the biggest choker in the history of all tennis. not exaggerating. never put $1 on that hag

[cryptocap]

...luckily Watson choked just as much

[Lightning]

I tried slimming my plays down for a week or so, but I don't like it as much because I feel like I"m missing out on value. Busy week so I'm not entirely sure I'll have a lot of time to do writeups at all. Apologies. Any questions and I'll do my best to get to them. Espérons!

ATP ROGERS CUP

- Lucas Pouille -5.5 games - $2.2 (UNIBET) - ONE STAKE
- Stepanek +2.5 games - $1.8
- Monfils -4.5 games - $1.85

- Fognini to WIN - $3.5 - ONE STAKE
- Fognini +4.5 games - $1.85 - ONE STAKE (the value of Fognini here is phenomenal...)

- Delbonis x Berdych x Gulbis - $2.8 - ONE STAKE

WTA ROGERS CUP

- Alize Cornet to WIN - $2.25 - ONE STAKE
- Konta x Bouchard - $2.32 - ONE STAKE

[cryptocap]

games looks very tough to call...I see some upsets especially in the mens bracket

[Lightning]

$$$$$ again for the second night in a row.

[Lightning]

TENNIS

Profit for the second consecutive night, and it's been a while since that happened. Been in a rather large downswing for a bit, would be nice to get out of it.

ATP Rogers Cup

- Goffin to WIN - $1.5 - TWO STAKES
- Goffin -2.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

- Karlovic +2 games (Pinnacle) - ONE STAKE
- Fognini -3.5 games - $2.1 - TWO STAKES
- Monfils -3.5 games - $1.75 - ONE STAKE
- Dimitrov to WIN 2-0 - $1.8 - ONE STAKE


WTA Rogers Cup

- Errani +4 games (Pinnacle) - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Keys -5.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Stosur to WIN - $1.83 (Pinnacle) - ONE STAKE
- Kerber -4.5 games - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
- Bouchard to WIN - $2.6 - ONE STAKE

Cheers!

[cryptocap]

Bouchard baby!!!!

[maletaja]

nice work. Why did u choose Bouchard?

[Lightning]

.5 of a game off a 2 unit gain, but that's the way it goes sometimes. Broke even.

ATP ROGERS CUP

- Monfils to WIN - $1.8 - ONE STAKE
- Dimitrov to WIN - $2.35 (Pinnacle) - ONE STAKE


WTA ROGERS CUP

- Halep 2-0 - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Kasatkina/Vinci UNDER 21.5 games - $1.95 (Pinnacle) - ONE STAKE
- Keys to WIN - $1.73 - ONE STAKE

Cheers!

[Lightning]

nice work. Why did u choose Bouchard?

More the home factor to be completely honest...

Thought $2.6 was value considering the effect the crowd is having on the home players.