Lightning tennis thread

beefcake · 08-04-16, 02:46 PM

Dog POO@@

Lightning · 08-04-16, 09:18 PM

I'll take it...

Lightning · 08-05-16, 08:20 AM

3-1 overnight, and one loss before that thanks to Kimmer 'gun clay player but loses everytime I bet on him' Coppejeans.

CHALLENGER LIBEREC

- Darcis - $2.1 (William Hill) - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER CORTINA

- Souza to WIN - $1.6 - ONE STAKE

ATP ATLANTA

- Donald Young 2-0 - $1.85 (Unibet)

I realise that Opelka served 20 aces against Anderson, and also beat him, but let's put things in perspective a little. You hear '20 aces' and think 'wow', but it was over three sets. Anderson is a good player, but he's still yet to recover peak form (or any form, really) and is still debatably struggling with injury. Anderson also hit 14 double faults, which never helps you.

I want to compare this to a similar situation that happened in Toronto. Shapovalov beat a below-par Nick Kyrgios, everyone jumped on Shapovalov's line in the next round and he was thoroughyl outclassed by Dimitrov, who hasn't been great this year either. Young has been solid, and despite both players being American, he'll have the HOME support because he lives in Atlanta. Opelka is young, and inexperienced and Young is the exact opposite. He also recently beat Johnson, another huge server, on grass a couple of weeks ago. If this matchup was before this tournament, the line would be more like -5.5 to Young, but Opelka is getting more respect for a -3.5. He's playing well, but Young will get the chocolates.

- Nishioka x Fritz +1.5 sets x Kyrgios/Verdasco OVER 23.5 games - $6.7 - QUARTER STAKE

Wasn't confident enough in any of these to stake them individually so I'll throw my leans together into a multi with a small quarter stake. Nishioka reminds me a little bit of Djokovic, except lefthanded. I didn't give him enough credit last night - he moves players around the court and is in good form.

I expect the NK match to be a good one, but two tiebreaks wouldn't really surprise me, and neither would a third set.

Fritz plays VERY well in America, and the pressure is all going to be on Isner.

Will have Olympic futures up either tomorrow or tonight.

Lightning · 08-05-16, 08:22 AM

****** That should read 'Darcis 2-0 - $2.1 (Unibet) - ONE STAKE'

JohnHanson · 08-05-16, 09:06 AM

I like Young too. I believe Young penetrates Opelkas weaker backhand to much in the ralleys with his leftie spin. Opelka needs a couple of aces and good first serves to win here.

Lightning · 08-05-16, 09:11 AM

Slightly live tip... Begu at an incredible price on 365 - $2.5.

- Begu +3.5 games - $1.72 - ONE STAKE

Lightning · 08-05-16, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by JohnHanson

I like Young too. I believe Young penetrates Opelkas weaker backhand to much in the ralleys with his leftie spin. Opelka needs a couple of aces and good first serves to win here.

Thanks for the info - I'll make a note. Haven't actually watched Opelka live at all and couldn't get highlights of his match with Anderson, so I've got limited data about his game play other than what I could see in short videos I found.

cryptocap · 08-05-16, 09:25 AM

Begu loses 1st set and wins 2-1

Lightning · 08-05-16, 09:35 AM

Bloody well hope so.

cryptocap · 08-05-16, 10:20 AM

we got buried...

Steamroller · 08-05-16, 10:24 AM

Begu is a loser. It's so laughable when they requests to see a coach and just starts arguing with them.

cryptocap · 08-05-16, 10:36 AM

1-1...dont drop the level you begu slut

cryptocap · 08-05-16, 10:47 AM

broken like a true whore

Steamroller · 08-05-16, 11:13 AM

Now please hold two games. Ozaki-Begu double pending.

cryptocap · 08-05-16, 11:17 AM

Hold on you bitch...dooooo it BREAAAAK her!

cryptocap · 08-05-16, 11:22 AM

Beguuuuuu!!!!!

Altern8 · 08-05-16, 02:24 PM

I had £10 on Begu 3/1 during in play. Cashed out early and put it all on Babos after reading this thread. Never following a tennis tip in this section ever again.

cryptocap · 08-05-16, 05:15 PM

lol faaack you and your 10 bucks

BIG · 08-05-16, 08:36 PM

Originally posted by Lightning

3-1 overnight, and one loss before that thanks to Kimmer 'gun clay player but loses everytime I bet on him' Coppejeans.

CHALLENGER LIBEREC

- Darcis - $2.1 (William Hill) - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER CORTINA

- Souza to WIN - $1.6 - ONE STAKE

ATP ATLANTA

- Donald Young 2-0 - $1.85 (Unibet)

I realise that Opelka served 20 aces against Anderson, and also beat him, but let's put things in perspective a little. You hear '20 aces' and think 'wow', but it was over three sets. Anderson is a good player, but he's still yet to recover peak form (or any form, really) and is still debatably struggling with injury. Anderson also hit 14 double faults, which never helps you.

I want to compare this to a similar situation that happened in Toronto. Shapovalov beat a below-par Nick Kyrgios, everyone jumped on Shapovalov's line in the next round and he was thoroughyl outclassed by Dimitrov, who hasn't been great this year either. Young has been solid, and despite both players being American, he'll have the HOME support because he lives in Atlanta. Opelka is young, and inexperienced and Young is the exact opposite. He also recently beat Johnson, another huge server, on grass a couple of weeks ago. If this matchup was before this tournament, the line would be more like -5.5 to Young, but Opelka is getting more respect for a -3.5. He's playing well, but Young will get the chocolates.

- Nishioka x Fritz +1.5 sets x Kyrgios/Verdasco OVER 23.5 games - $6.7 - QUARTER STAKE

Wasn't confident enough in any of these to stake them individually so I'll throw my leans together into a multi with a small quarter stake. Nishioka reminds me a little bit of Djokovic, except lefthanded. I didn't give him enough credit last night - he moves players around the court and is in good form.

I expect the NK match to be a good one, but two tiebreaks wouldn't really surprise me, and neither would a third set.

Fritz plays VERY well in America, and the pressure is all going to be on Isner.

Will have Olympic futures up either tomorrow or tonight.

Tuff parlay 2 lose. Books had to lose a bit. My parlay had Fritz +105 right before it went off was +205 wow.

Altern8 · 08-05-16, 09:52 PM

Originally posted by cryptocap

lol faaack you and your 10 bucks

Dude I'm down £500 off tennis plays this week and the one bet i get a good price on i cashout and it wins.

Lightning · 08-05-16, 10:11 PM

Originally posted by Altern8

Dude I'm down £500 off tennis plays this week and the one bet i get a good price on i cashout and it wins.

f*ck I know the feeling hey, done that so many times. Stuck with my +3.5 tonight so happy with that.

Lightning · 08-06-16, 04:46 AM

I'm probably going to leave Isner and Kyrgios alone, the odds are about what I would expect. I have Kyrgios as a futures bet pending.

There is A LOT of value tonight, so I'm going to capitalise. I can't explain each one because I spent a fair bit of time analysing futures today, but if you want the reasoning of any particular one, I can do that.

OLYMPICS - WOMENS

- Kovinic +6.5 - $1.71 (Unibet) - ONE STAKE
- Jabeur +6.5 - $1.65 (bet365) - ONE STAKE
- Pavlyuchenkova -5.5 games - $21.1 - ONE STAKE

OLYMPICS - MENS

- Nishikori -4.5 games - $1.6 (bet365) - ONE STAKE
- Berankis to WIN - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
- Tsonga -4.5 games - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

- Elias to WIN - $1.6 - ONE STAKE
- Donskoy to WIN - $1.65 - ONE STAKE
- Dzumhur to WIN - $2.45 - ONE STAKE

- Pella +3.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
- Monfils -4.5 games - $2.4 - ONE STAKE

Lightning · 08-06-16, 12:20 PM

Good start... Jabeur and Kovinic both covering, while Nishikori did what I expected. Berankis a little bit of a surprise.

cryptocap · 08-06-16, 03:18 PM

maletaja · 08-06-16, 05:48 PM

nice picks. For me it seems opening rounds have more value than late stages. Market cannot handle several match ups

GoBlue77 · 08-06-16, 06:54 PM

anyone losing to schmiedlova should retire. oh wait, thats you vinci

Lightning · 08-07-16, 07:11 AM

Back again. Had a decent night with +1.65. Had a clean sweep of the womens, which was nice. Unfortunately on my facebook group I also recommended a stake on darcis -2.5 at $1.8 which took me to +2.45 but alas, not here. Apologies.

OLYMPICS - WOMENS - ALL ONE STAKE

- Duque-Marino +6.5 games - $2
- Kuznetsova 2-0 - $1.6 (Unibet)
- Gavrilova +6.5 games - $2
- Buyukakcay +5.5 games - $2
- Siegemund to WIN - $1.90
- Muguruza -4.5 games - $1.8

OLYMPICS - MENS - ALL ONE STAKE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

- Brown to WIN - $2.4 (Unibet)
- Bautista-Agut to WIN 2-0 - $1.7
- Fabbiano to WIN - $1.85
- Lorenzi to WIN - $3.5
- Nadal -3.5 games - $1.75 (Unibet) - TWO STAKES

I was going to go with Rosol over Paire, but Paire is supremely talented and could probably beat Rosol if he put in 60% effort.

Cheers!

cryptocap · 08-07-16, 12:51 PM

Did not think he had it in him but looks like Nicky poo will be champion...Nice call!

Lightning · 08-08-16, 02:24 AM

Cheers mate. Good for the figures

Nice day again, 4/5 on womens and 3/3 mens (+1 profit though)

Lightning · 08-08-16, 05:56 AM

After an average last week (both my futures picks winning evened me out), this week has been fantastic with a +5.55 unit profit so far on the Olympics. That includes 7/8 on womens picks as well, something that I'm particularly proud of because the WTA is often hard to get right.

ATP LOS CABOS

- Granollers Pujol to WIN - $3.5 (bet365) - ONE STAKE

OLYMPICS - MENS

- Edmund to win 2-0 - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Cilic -4.5 games - $1.6 - TWO STAKES
- Sousa/Del Potro OVER 21.5 - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

- Monfils -5.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Nishikori -5.5 games - $2.1 - ONE STAKE

OLYMPICS - WOMENS

- Pavlyuchenkova to WIN - $1.6 - ONE STAKE
- Garcia to WIN - $2.6 (bet365) - ONE STAKE
- Garcia/Konta OVER 21.5 - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

- Kasatkina -3.5 games - $1.7 - TWO STAKES
- Stosur -2.5 games - $1.8 - TWO STAKES
- Kuznetsova -4.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

- Cornet +6.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Muguruza -6.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

moki · 08-08-16, 06:42 AM

hi. why you trust edmund ? and why kastikina ? you think that will be easy games?
i want to send kvitova and svitolina and i need one more game for parlay..

Lightning · 08-08-16, 07:53 AM

I think that Edmund is just a better player, and he'll be going hard because the British are pretty patriotic. Kasatkina is so much better than Zheng. I'm not reading a lot into Zheng beating Radwanska.

moki · 08-08-16, 08:11 AM

ok..i think that errani has a chance on this kind of surface

moki · 08-08-16, 09:48 AM

oh edmund edmund

Lightning · 08-09-16, 05:19 AM

Granollers still pending, but I gained just under two units overnight by my rough calculations, with all my two stake plays (most confident plays) hitting. That brings me up to +7.5 units in just three nights - probably my best week in a long time.

ATP LOS CABOS

- Granollers (pending from last night)
- Stakhovsky 2-0 - $2 - ONE STAKE

OLYMPICS - MEN

- Ferrer -4.5 games - $1.7 - ONE STAKE
- Simon -4.5 games - $1.65 - ONE STAKE

- Nadal -4.5 games - $1.65 - ONE STAKE
- Nadal -6.5 games - $3.25 (Sportsbet) - ONE STAKE

- Paire/Fognini UNDER 22.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
- Goffin -5.5 games - $1.7 - TWO STAKES

OLYMPICS - WOMEN

- Muguruza -4.5 games - $1.7 (Sportsbet) - TWO STAKES
- Errani +2.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

- Stosur +4.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
- Williams -5.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE