Lightning tennis thread

[moki]

I suppose because I think she's better than CSN and should cover it. She's looked pretty good so far.

but also csn looked good. and 7 of there last 10 meetings end with over.
and how can you say looked good on halep if she was a break down 3-1 at the third set against babos?

[w@lt]

Really like CSN +1.5 sets -130

[Lightning]

Brilliant start so far with Del Potro -1 first set and Halep taking the first set 6-2

[Chaz22]

Brilliant start so far with Del Potro -1 first set and Halep taking the first set 6-2

uhh, not so good after all - it's a void right for del Po's pick?

[Lightning]

Nope, first set was played out, so completely valid ))

[BIG]

That one was some BS serving for 3-0 up 30-0 Stan u Peter Puffer I hope u lose.

[JohnHanson]

Also had one breakball in ralley for 6-5

[Lightning]

haha not much you can do about that. It's a moral victory, knowing that you chose the right play, even if it doesn't come up on the spreadsheet

[Lightning]

Not a lot of time for explanations today, sorry. Just a quick update on my futures:

- Monfils is still in and is a $1.15 fav to win the match, and in effect, his quarter tonight. I originally had one stake on at $7
- Kyrgios, Williams and Stosur are out unfortunately. Combined, there were four stakes on.
- Kerber and Vinci are playing off tonight. I had 1/2 stake on Vinci at $17 and 5 on Kerber at $2.7. If Vinci wins, that's three stakes profit, but if Kerber wins, that's eight stakes profit.
- I have twenty stakes on Murray to make the final @ $1.8 and ten stakes on Murray vs. Djokovic to meet in the final @ $2.8. Murray is now down to a $1.5 and the forecast is now $2. Both guys look really good.

US OPEN - MENS - ONE STAKE ON EACH UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

- Pouille to WIN - $5.5 (Pinnacle)

This bet has a few reasons behind it. One, it just locks in the profit on the Monfils 'to win a quarter' futures bet. Two, I do actually think there is a huge mismatch in price. Monfils is playing so well, but so is Pouille and I don't think he deserves to be this much of an outsider.

- Djokovic -6.5 games - $2 - TWO STAKES

Djokovic looks to have used the rest to his advantage. He was a little rusty against Edmund but will get better and better as time goes on. Tsonga has been good this tournament but the world number one is just too good of an all court player to lose this. He turns it on in the finals and should cover that spread.

US OPEN - WOMENS - ONE STAKE ON EACH UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

- Vinci +5.5 games - $1.9

I think the value is on Vinci here. Kerber absolutely deserves to be favourite, but the Italian clearly plays her best tennis at this event. Even if she loses, I see a three setter or at least a reasonably tight two setter.

[Lightning]

Last night was more of a hedge night, but what pissed me off was Vinci going down 7-5, and then getting bagelled. Seriously???

Djokovic also!!!!! Had the line covered by the end of the second set and Tsonga retires?? fml in a big way

US OPEN - MENS

- Murray -6.5 games - $1.8 - TWO STAKES

Not a super hard choice here. As predicted, Murray raised his game in a big way against Dimitrov, and even though the Bulgarian gave up more than forty unforced errors, Murray was a force. Nishikori traditionally struggles to hold serve against Murray, wining around 55% of service games in their match-ups, while Murray has a hold percentage of around 85% (thanks to Sean Calvert for these stats). The Japanese national won't give up as many unforced errors as Dimitrov, but with such a discrepancy on serve, Murray should be in cruise control in this match. My prediction is 3-0.

US OPEN - WOMENS - ONE STAKE ON EACH UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

- Pliskova -3.5 games - $1.8

After seeing Pliskova beat Williams like she did, I'm finally convinced. Her serve was magnificent and her shots were powerful and consistent *enough* to be effective. Konjuh's had a good run, but the game is really on Pliskova's racket.

- Williams -4.5 games - $1.7 - TWO STAKES

Huge value on Williams here. She's serving an average of 1.23 aces per service game in this tournament, and although Halep played a great match against Navarro, Williams is Williams.

Cheers!

[Lightning]

+0.2 last night thanks to Murray ((((((((

US OPEN - WOMENS - ONE STAKE ON EACH UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

- Pliskova +5.5 games - $1.8 (Sportsbet)

The way Pliskova has been playing, she could almost win outright here.

- Kerber -3.5 games - $1.7

Cheers

[Lightning]

2/2, roll on tomorrow night. So happy that Kerber got through - is my favourite womens player.

[Lightning]

2/2 and +1.5 units last night, hoping to keep at it tonight.

US OPEN - MENS - ONE STAKE ON EACH UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

- Nishikori OVER 20.5 games - $2 (Pinnacle - you can get $1.7 on sportsbet or $1.85 on crownbet but I'm taking the big price)

I'll start with Wawrinka. At first glance, he did pretty well against Del Potro, winning 3-1. But, I want to break it down. His strategy was basically to stand deep in the court to give himself more time against the massive forehands coming down, and during the point, work the ball further and further out to the Argentinian's backhand side. Once he got the weaker/slower/shorter ball to pounce on, he'd step inside and either a) spank it down the line and out of reach, b) go hard inside out/cross court and clean up on the weak volley or c) drift a drop shot in and make Del Po run (but this one not as much).

It was the perfect strategy, because of Juan's weak backhand. Juan would have known himself that Stan would target that, and he went out and did it. When Del Potro managed to run around and smash a forehand, Wawrinka was deep enough to have the time to get it back, and because Del Potro doesn't create a huge amount of angle with his forehand, Stan wasn't going to get punished for standing that deep like you would against someone like Murray or Novak.

The game plan was great. The execution, however, was slightly off. Needless to say, Stan is lucky that Del Potro's backhand was weak, because the amount of short or poor balls to his backhand that weren't put away was amazing. Wawrinka just didn't get the consistency and power in his groundstrokes until the last set when the pressure was really off.

Stan WILL NOT be able to do that against Nishikori tonight. Kei has a much better backhand, and he's more than capable of putting Wawrinka on the backfoot in the point with one blow on that side. Kei will look to move Stan around from side to side like he did against Murray, and if he gets that right, it'll be devastating. The Japanese also has a fantastic drop shot that he got Murray with so many times in their quarter final, and if Stan stays back like he did against Del Potro, he's going to have a hard time coping with that and the angles that Nishikori can create.

Wawrinka's serve is not impregnable, and Kei's a really good returner. Everyone thinks that Nishikori has a terrible serve, and while it's not great, he was operating at 60% in his last match and that's still pretty excellent. Wawrinka also has a tendency to really 'chip' his returns back, so I won't be surprised if Kei came to the net immediately to try and put some of them away. He's certainly quick enough.

If Wawrinka gets going, he can out hit Nishikori, but that's a big if, and if he plays like he did against Juan and doesn't stand further up in the court, I think he'll get beaten. That being said, it is a semi-final and you'd expect him to raise his game.

I hope Stan wins, but Nishikori's going to make it really hard in a game that I think will be over either way in four sets.

- Kei Nishikori first serve percentage: UNDER 60.5% - $1.9 (Crownbet)

Kei was striking them well last match and only just got to 60%. In a big, pressure game such as this, I think he'll operate somewhere around the 55-59% mark.

- Most break points: Kei Nishikori - $1.8 (Crownbet)




I'm still not 100% sure how I'm going to play the other match, or even if I'm going to play it at all. I'm still running through the analytics in my head.

Cheers!

[Chaz22]

Stan never did stand back deep against Del Potro.

[pabonaparte]

Quite a crazy tournament this US Open. Great TV!

[Lightning]

Stan never did stand back deep against Del Potro.

Watch the replays. You'll find he did for a large amount of points.

[Lightning]

2/3, +0.7 for the night. I was watching it, andafter the first set was thinking that I was exactly right - Stan didn't raise his level and was getting beaten. But all of a sudden, about halfway through the second set, two things happened: Stan got better, and Nishikori started falling off the ladder. His level of play was so good for the majority of the first two sets but the two sets after, he was like a shadow of himself. Disappointing. All I know is that I'm still not 100% on Wawrinka. I hope he beats Novak but the signs aren't amazing.

[Lightning]

US OPEN - WOMENS

I won't be making an official play tonight because I don't really see any value. I think Kerber will win, and -2.5 at $1.8 isn't a large handicap, but Pliskova has a serve on her, and the way she's playing, nothing is safe.

US OPEN - MENS

- Djokovic/Wawrinka OVER 39.5 - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

I will, however, make a play on the mens. Djokovic leads the head to head 19-4, but that doesn't really tell the whole story. In completed grand slam matches, he is 3-2, with 24 of a possible 25 sets played. In the face of such a trend, I'm taking the obvious and hoping for a great game.

[Lightning]

Adding in two more for the mens final tonight:

- Most break points: Stan Wawrinka - $2.9 - ONE STAKE

- Most winners - Stan Wawrinka - $1.77 - ONE STAKE

- Novak Djokovic UNDER 4.5 aces - $1.95 - ONE STAKE

ALL ON CROWNBET

[BIG]

Where's da man at. Are u taking a break from these shit tourneys?

[Lightning]

Where's da man at. Are u taking a break from these shit tourneys?

Yeah, that's it man. Needed a bit of time away haha

TENNIS TIPS
Had a few days off from posting pre-game tips, just updating my records (which I will make a post about to update you all when I'm done). I've only been giving live tips in my facebook group, which I've gone 2/2 with one pending so far. I know that not everyone can get on them, but that's not really my problem - even if only one person can get on them, that's better than nothing.

WTA QUEBEC
- Davis to WIN - $1.5 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER BANJA LUKA
- Satral to WIN - $1.6 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER ISTANBUL
- Kamke/Galan Riveros UNDER 18.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER SZCZECIN
- Montanes to WIN - $1.5 - ONE STAKE

MULTI
- Polansky x Tiafoe x Pavlasek x Bedene - $2.2 - ONE STAKE (Cary Challenger, Cary Challenger, Banja Luka Challenger, Banja Luka Challenger)

Cheers!

[BIG]

How can I connect to your FB group?

Thanks

[Lightning]

Not allowed to advertise publically on here bud :/

[Lightning]

Adding one more:

NANCHANG CHALLENGER

Zhang to WIN - $2.4 - HALF STAKE

[Lightning]

5/5 and +3.8 last night. Definitely not going to happen everynight so I'm savouring it while it lasts.

WTA QUEBEC

- Bouchard -5.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE

ISTANBUL CHALLENGER

- Sela/Doumbia UNDER 18.5 - $1.8 (bet365) - ONE STAKE

- Ilhan to WIN - $1.8 - (Sportsbet) - ONE STAKE

SCZECHIN CHALLENGER

- Ruud to WIN - $2.1 - HALF STAKE

CHALLENGER CARY

- Tiafoe x Polansky to WIN - $2.47 - HALF STAKE

MULTIS

- Gianessi x Andujar - $2.1 - ONE STAKE (Banja Luka, Szecin)

- Chiudinelli x Berlocq - $1.7 - ONE STAKE (Banja Luka, Istanbul)

Cheers!

[Lightning]

4/4 and +3.4 for the night so far with 2 half stake plays and one full stake play to go. Nice to lock in profit, but would be even nicer to clean sweep for the second night in a row.

[Lightning]

ATP DAVIS CUP RELEGATION - ALL ONE STAKE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

- Kyrgios/Martin UNDER 30.5 - $1.8

- Daniel to WIN 3-0 - $1.8

- Tomic/Kovalik UNDER 31.5 - $1.8

- Laaksonen to WIN 3-1 - $3.5 - HALF STAKE

WTA TOKYO

- Zhang to WIN - $1.8 - TWO STAKES

The later games will be added in another post later in the day. I just know that I might not be up that early ahaha

[Lightning]

the daniel match is void

[Lightning]

DAVIS CUP WORLD GROUP - ONE STAKE ON EACH UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

- Pouille +5.5 games - $1.8
- Pouille to WIN - $4 - HALF STAKE

DAVIS CUP RELEGATION - ONE STAKE ON EACH UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

- Donskoy/Kukushkin OVER 39.5 - $1.8 (bet365)

- Mayer -6.5 games - $1.8

- Nadal -10.5 games - $1.8 - THREE STAKES

- Darcis +3.5 games - $1.8

DAVIS CUP GROUP I

- M. Ymer to WIN - $7 - QUARTER STAKE

DAVIS CUP GROUP II

- M. Basic to WIN 3-0 - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER BANJA LUKA

- Satral +2.5 - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

- Zeballos/Zekic OVER 20.5 - $1.8 (bet365) - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER ISTANBUL

- Kamke to WIN - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

- Sela/Koncecy UNDER 19.5 - $2.1 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER CARY

- Schur to WIN - $4 - ONE AND A HALF STAKES (1.5 STAKES)

CHALLENGER SCZECIN

- Ceccinato -3.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE



Cheers!

[Lightning]

ATP METZ

- Muller -3.5 games - $1.75 - ONE STAKE


ATP ST. PETERSBURG

- Rosol to WIN 2-0 - $2.1 - HALF STAKE

- A. Zverev -2.5 games - $2.1 (Pinnacle) - TWO STAKES

[Jeff_Black]

I completely forgot about Davis Cup ey lol, Well the first day anyway. Got to watch the replays of Australia.

Would love to see Del Potro lead Argentina to it.

[Lightning]

Probably a good thing in the end haha, some weird results. I thought it would be a France vs. England final...

[Lightning]

I personally loving capping indoor matches, because I like to watch the faster tennis on display. My strategy is basically to take all thee players who do well on indoor hard.

ATP METZ

- Basilashvili -2.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

- Brown/Mathieu OVER 23.5 - $2 - ONE STAKE

- Millot +3.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

ATP ST. PETERSBURG

- Lorenzi to WIN - $2.75 - ONE STAKE

- Lajovic +3.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER SANTOS

- Souza to WIN - $1.5 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER COLUMBUS

- Sangren x Escobedo - $2 - ONE STAKE

[Lightning]

Good night overall, nice when most plays go as you thought they would. I was watching the Lajovic/Verdasco game though, and I'm honestly not sure how Lajovic turned that around. He was looking so grouse, hitting UE's everywhere, yet somehow spanked him in the last. Escobedo retiring left a sour taste in my mouth, because I have to grade that as a loss. From now on, on matches that I recommend moneyline plays, I'm recommending bet365. That way, if they retire, I'm covered. Overall, +2.75 if Souza wins (up a break in the third) and +1.25 if he doesn't.

Some early womens plays but also getting out my mens plays early tonight. More games to choose from, which is nice. You'll notice that there'll be a lot of overs plays, which is because of the surface.

WTA TOKYO

- Puig to WIN - $3 - ONE STAKE

I'm going to take the risk of not using bet365 for this particular play only because I watched Puig's last match and I can say for certain that she's fine. She demolished Lepchenko 6-0 6-3. I want to draw particular attention to her serving. She had 68% first serves in, which is probably pretty average for a woman, but the ones she got in were well directed and had a bit of pace. The other general metric I use is second serve points won. She had 63%, which is DEFINITELY excellent. Most WTA second serves are just easy points for their opponents, so to be winning 12/19 is really solid. In comparison, Lepchenko had 43% second serves won. Overall, the stats probably don't show the dominance of Puig - she just won the points where it really mattered, evidenced by her 3/4 bp saved, whereas Lepchenko saved 3 of 8.

Petra played well as well, 60% first serves in, and 60% second serves won. She also saved 6/6 bp, which shows outstanding mental resistance. Kvitova's not known as somone who always has terrific mental pressure, and her commitment in lower tournaments can sometimes be questioned. The stats and how Puig played suggests it should be closer than the odds suggest, and thus the value is on the Puerto Rican.

- Wozniacki -2.5 games - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

I also watched this match for a bit, and I have to say - Wozniacki played outstandingly well. When she lost 5 games in a row, I thought Bencic would romp it in. Instead, she kept her cool and ratcheted up her level to win the decider 6-1. She was accurate and moved Bencic around really well. Suarez Navarro will be a bit tougher but if she keeps her level up, the Dane should have few issues.

- Radwanska to WIN 2-0 - $1.8 (bet365) - ONE STAKE


WTA SEOUL

- Giorgi -3.5 games - $1.7 (Sportsbet) - ONE STAKE

You know that Giorgi is going to take every ball early and bring raw aggression. When she's in form, it's devastating. When it's not, though, it's UE city. I caught a little bit of her last match, and I think she's in form. She also has the mental advantage over Barthel with a recent win.


WTA GUANGZHOU

- Konjuh -5.5 games - $1.65 - ONE STAKE

- Jankovic -3.5 games - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

- Errani/Golubic UNDER 21.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

------------------------------------------------------------

ATP ST. PETERSBURG

- Rublev/Kukushkin OVER 22 - $1.9 (Pinnacle) - ONE STAKE

- Troicki -4.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

- Youzhny/Tipsarevic OVER 10.5 games in the first set - $3 - HALF STAKE

- Donskoy/Kuznetsov OVER 22.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE


ATP METZ

- Herbert -4.5 games - $2.1 - ONE STAKE

A few reasons why I like this play. Number one, PHH is French. Numero deux, his serve and volley type style of play suits the indoor court really well. He'll come into the net off every ball almost, whereas Cervantes is a really solid baseliner. He's used to playing on clay, where you give the ball plenty of topspin and height. He'll adjust eventually, but by that time Herbert would have broken him and covered the line. I'm thinking something like a 6-3 6-2.

- Brown to WIN - $2.1 - ONE STAKE

- Gojowczyk first set Total Games: OVER 4.5 - $2.05 (Sportsbet) - ONE STAKE

Cheers!

[Lightning]

Small loss (under one unit) yesterday, which was a shame. Some plays that I targeted came off well, others didn't go to plan.

WTA GUANGZHOU

- Konjuh -4.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

- Golubic to WIN - $2.1 (bet365) - TWO STAKES


WTA TOKYO

- Pliskova -5.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

- Muguruza to WIN 2-0 - $1.8 - ONE STAKE


WTA MULTI

- Begu x Putinseva - $2.31 (bet365) - ONE STAKE



ATP METZ

- Herbert +2.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE

- Mahut -2.5 games - $1.7 (bet365) - ONE STAKE


ATP ST PETERSBURG

- Rublev to WIN - $2.75 (bet365) - ONE STAKE

- Sidorenko to WIN - $3 (bet365) - ONE STAKE

- Berdych to WIN 2-0 - $2.15 (Pinnacle) - ONE STAKE

- Troicki -3.5 games - $1.9 - TWO STAKES

- Zverev -3.5 games - $2 - TWO STAKES

Cheers!

As a side note, challenger plays will be in another post because I'm still waiting for some lines to be released.