Lightning tennis thread

[Lightning]

Nice analysis with your picks.. it seems you put lot of heart and mind into it..
Daniel doesn't seem to be the obvious choice as a winner imo.. Elias has had a good run on clay like Mestre and Turin Challengers to name a few.. Nothing flashy abt Daniel though apart from the fact that he beat the man in form Zabellos ..

Glad you got something out of it.

To be fair, he's not an 'obvious' choice, because he is priced at evens, but I do think he's slightly better. I take Elias a lot against other challenger players, but it seems that Daniel competes more at ATP level events so I'm hoping he's learnt from that.

[cryptocap]

Marco Chiudinelli



...he is higher rank than Dancevic...better h2h vs Karlovic yet is a huge dog...

[cryptocap]

Dr. Ivo out till tomorrow morning it seems...glad I didnt lock my wager in

[Lightning]

Marco Chiudinelli



...he is higher rank than Dancevic...better h2h vs Karlovic yet is a huge dog...

Dancevic playing better right now though

[Lightning]

Profit last night... not sure how much because I haven't done the sums, but can update that later. Don't really have a lot of time right now
to do write ups, but if I have time later, I'll try and update. Don't count on it though.

ATP BASTAD

- Ramos/Arnaboldi UNDER 20.5 - $1.8 (UNIBET) - ONE STAKE
- Ferrer -4.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Sousa -3 games - $2 - TWO STAKES

ATP HAMBURG

- Kohlscreiber/Olivo - UNDER 19.5 - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Klizan/Gimeno-Traver UNDER 21.5 - $1.8 - ONE STAKE
- Klizan -4.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE

DAVIS CUP WORLD GROUP

- Kyle Edmund to WIN - $1.6 - THREE STAKES
- Juan Monaco to WIN - $2.5 - ONE STAKE
- Tsonga/Rosol UNDER 38.5 - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
- Marin Cilic to WIN - $1.6 - THREE STAKES
- Marin Cilic to win 3-0 - $4.5 - HALF STAKE

DAVIS CUP GROUP ONE

- Haase/Rublev OVER 40.5 - $2 (UNIBET) - ONE STAKE
- Gabashvili -3.5 games - $1.9 (UNIBET) - ONE STAKE

DAVIS CUP GROUP TWO

- Ilhan to WIN - $1.9

MULTI

Polansky x Siegemund -3.5 games - $3.7 - HALF STAKE (Challenger Winnipeg, WTA Bucharest)

Cheers!

[maletaja]

do you follow market?pinnacle isnt sometimes best one
i just did some scan and - for example Klizan/Gimeno-Traver UNDER 21.5 - $1.8 - ONE STAKE i got 2.1 marathonbet

[Lightning]

I scan the Australian bookmakers. I don't bother with the US because most of the people who would use these are Australian. If you can get better lines - then fantastic!

[Chaz22]

Sharp picks again and most likely you will be in profit again after this day.

Some input from me on ATPs....

Ramos - Arnaboldi >> Ramos has been very solid through out the whole year....there is a little chance he will slip today so under is interesting....I will however, pick on Arnaboldi +1.5 sets just because again I think underdogs that get to this stage die fighting.

Ferrer - Brown >> I agree with Ferrer on this one, but most likely I will not pick this match. He cant be that bad as he was yesterday but then you have Brown who is even more unpredictable. -4.5 is quite a lot though.

Sousa -3 >> this one I disagree.... Im on Elias to win. Sousa won yesterday but that win didnt mean much. he can hope that Elias is exhausted after he beat Daniel.

Kohlschreiber >> also disagree. It's the 3rd ARG player he faces in the row and it was tough against first 2. his game is just not that stable and Olivo is not a beginner.Im taking +1.5 sets at nice odds of 3.5

Klizan >> same thing as for Kohlschreiber.....tougher opponent. I dont think he will break apart Gimeno that easy. +1.5 sets on Gimeno here.

So as you can see im mostly against your selections, but considering my previous success I'd say you have a great chance today

GL.

[maletaja]

I dont know about others,but Kohl and Ferrer seems to be downtrend. Only plus side is that Ferrer is fighter If thay are so heavy favourites why they are struggling first rounds. Its red alert to me . Opponents are not going weaker, even when opposite side is top100 guy.
I just took Olivio +5.5games

[Honeybadger44]

Kohlschreiber [/B]>> also disagree. It's the 3rd ARG player he faces in the row and it was tough against first 2. his game is just not that stable and Olivo is not a beginner.Im taking +1.5 sets at nice odds of 3.5

Klizan >> same thing as for Kohlschreiber.....tougher opponent. I dont think he will break apart Gimeno that easy. +1.5 sets on Gimeno here.

...

GL.

I agree on Olivo being worth a shot +1.5 sets.

Klizan on the other hand does have a tougher opponent then yesterday, but gimeno looked pretty bad against medvedev. He didn't feel very well. Throwing up at the end of second set, cramping at the end. He will definitely feel some fatigue after that marathon.
Also serve was not very good and his bacckhand was falling apart. And of course, Klizan is a lefty who will attack that backhand all day long.

All that being said, it's still questionable how much value there is with Klizan -4.5? He is such unreliable player that I rarely back him as a favorite. I am tempted ihere, but will probably pass and wait for in-play.

[Lightning]

Sharp picks again and most likely you will be in profit again after this day.

Some input from me on ATPs....

Ramos - Arnaboldi >> Ramos has been very solid through out the whole year....there is a little chance he will slip today so under is interesting....I will however, pick on Arnaboldi +1.5 sets just because again I think underdogs that get to this stage die fighting.

Ferrer - Brown >> I agree with Ferrer on this one, but most likely I will not pick this match. He cant be that bad as he was yesterday but then you have Brown who is even more unpredictable. -4.5 is quite a lot though.

Sousa -3 >> this one I disagree.... Im on Elias to win. Sousa won yesterday but that win didnt mean much. he can hope that Elias is exhausted after he beat Daniel.

Kohlschreiber >> also disagree. It's the 3rd ARG player he faces in the row and it was tough against first 2. his game is just not that stable and Olivo is not a beginner.Im taking +1.5 sets at nice odds of 3.5

Klizan >> same thing as for Kohlschreiber.....tougher opponent. I dont think he will break apart Gimeno that easy. +1.5 sets on Gimeno here.

So as you can see im mostly against your selections, but considering my previous success I'd say you have a great chance today

GL.

Love the interaction Chaz. Turns out you were right about Arnaboldi.

Ferrer had a poor first set but turned it on after that. Once again, it was Ferrer's first set on clay after the grass season. He's been in poor form overall this year but even at half strength, he's good enough to beat Brown on clay. Serving might play a part but I don't see Ferrer having an issue breaking when Bedene broke fairly easily in the last game.

Sousa is just the better player compared to Elias, and I'm happy to jump on the -3. In terms of value, it's right up there.

Re. Argentinians, Not entirely sure what the nationality of the player has to do with it When he's on, he's well on, and he won't want to slip up in the finals in front of his home crowd.

And gimeno... he's an average player that beat Paire due to unforced errors and Medvedev just crumbled under pressure. Klizan can be up and down but he's shown over the last two months that he puts away average players on clay.

GL to you as wel though

[Lightning]

I dont know about others,but Kohl and Ferrer seems to be downtrend. Only plus side is that Ferrer is fighter If thay are so heavy favourites why they are struggling first rounds. Its red alert to me . Opponents are not going weaker, even when opposite side is top100 guy.
I just took Olivio +5.5games

Ferrer's poor first set can be explained by the fact that it was his first game on clay after playing on grass. It takes a bit of time to adjust.

[Lightning]

I agree on Olivo being worth a shot +1.5 sets.

Klizan on the other hand does have a tougher opponent then yesterday, but gimeno looked pretty bad against medvedev. He didn't feel very well. Throwing up at the end of second set, cramping at the end. He will definitely feel some fatigue after that marathon.
Also serve was not very good and his bacckhand was falling apart. And of course, Klizan is a lefty who will attack that backhand all day long.

All that being said, it's still questionable how much value there is with Klizan -4.5? He is such unreliable player that I rarely back him as a favorite. I am tempted ihere, but will probably pass and wait for in-play.

Good call - he's played two long three-setters in a row, and clay takes a lot out of you.

[Chaz22]

...

Re. Argentinians, Not entirely sure what the nationality of the player has to do with it When he's on, he's well on, and he won't want to slip up in the finals in front of his home crowd.

And gimeno... he's an average player that beat Paire due to unforced errors and Medvedev just crumbled under pressure. Klizan can be up and down but he's shown over the last two months that he puts away average players on clay.

GL to you as wel though

you're right nationality has little to do with the potential outcome of the match just a funny coincidence that Kohel will face another argy....

Then again, you do have to admit that Argentinians overall have much more fighting spirit than for example French players who more often tend to give up when being in a loosing position.

Yes, you might be right on Klizan after all, especially given a fact that Honeybadger mentioned on Gimeno's condition (i didnt know that)..so this can be pretty much one-sided.

[Jeff_Black]

Gave up on Olivo after that first set thinking Kolly has found his game after a few slow matches, I guess 0-6 6-0 is still possible :P

[GoBlue77]

kohlshitter strikes again. gets bageled in a set and serves for match at 5-4 and chokes HARD at the finish. this guy is such a bum

[cryptocap]

Dr Ivo

[Lightning]

Cilic left me shaking my head when I woke up this morning... up two sets to love and can't finish it off. What makes it worse is I had three stakes on it, which sort of ruins my figures a bit. If he gets up, I'm doing amazingly.

WTA BUCHAREST

- Simona Halep -6.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE

ATP HAMBURG

- Martin Klizan -3.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

ATP NEWPORT

- Baghdatis/Karlovic UNDER 25.5 - $2.1 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
- Young +2.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE

MULTI

- Albot x Siegemund - $1.9 - HALF STAKE (Challenger Poznan, WTA Bucharest)

[cryptocap]

banging ivo goes 2-0 again...!

[Lightning]

banging ivo goes 2-0 again...!

Yeah, he did well. Playing well, which I hoped he wouldn't. Sort of pointless now anyway though because both Johnson and Mannarino have been knocked out.

[Lightning]

MULTI

- Cuevas/Klizan OVER 21.5 x Monteiro to WIN - $2.4 - ONE STAKE (ATP Hamburg, ATP Gstaad Qualifiers)

Cuevas has already captured two titles on clay this year, and has reached the final of another. His record on clay this year reads a nice 17-6, or 74%. His serve is very good for a clay courter, and hasn't been broken at all this tournament. He saved 6/6 break points in the semi-final, which is a good indicator that he's holding up nicely under pressure. Interestingly, he has a 12-1, or 92% record against left-handers this season, while his career record sits at 64%.

Klizan's story this year is one of slight inconsistency and injury. He reached the semis in Sofia, won a title in Rotterdam, and then followed it up with a couple of losses that might have been impacted by injury - culminating in his first round retirement in Roland Garros. After that, he reached the semi-finals of a challenger event and now sits in the final here. Clearly, when he's able to play his best tennis, he's been very good. His forehand in particular has been amazing in this event - running around balls and ripping them. Opponents have struggled to deal with the shot. Cuevas has been hitting his backhands sweetly though - it'll be an interesting battle. I have a futures bet on Cuevas, and I do think he'll win, but Klizan, however, has a 4-0 record in finals, so I'm not going to fade a trend.

DAVIS CUP GROUP ONE

- Bautista-Agut 3-0 - $2 - HALF STAKE

DAVIS CUP

- Delbonis/Fognini OVER 38.5 games - $1.83 - ONE STAKE

These two have played five matches against each other (all but one on clay). In every single match, they have used ALL the allotted sets. Yes - out of the 17 sets allowed, they've used 17. When you add in the Davis cup factor (most guys will be trying their best because they don't want to let their nation down), the overs seems a great play.

- Pouille/Rosol OVER 40.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE (BUT ONLY IF TSONGA LOSES HIS MATCH. IF HE WINS, DO NOT PLACE THIS BET)

Rosol plays like a lion at the Davis cup. He took Kohlscreiber to five earlier in the year, and saved two match points against Tsonga before coming back and beating him. Pouille is starting to really look the part of a top player, and he backed that up by beating Vesely in three. If this was a normal match, I'd say Pouille in straights, but with Rosol's serving prowess, all he needs to do is grab a set and we should have this one.

ATP NEWPORT

- Karlovic/Muller UNDER 26 - $2.2 (PINNACLE) - HALF STAKE

I generally have a rule - if you get a line of 26 or above in a two set match, I take the under.

[Conqueror]

The problem with the UNDER in the Karlovic/Muller game is that almost everything Karlovic does these days ends in a tie-break. I'm sure even when he has sex with his girlfriend, it ends in a tie-break. He's just too tie-break prone in competitive games against decent players. Even if both sets end in tie-breaks you still get a push though.
BOL and thanks for posting.

[cryptocap]

Both huge servers but Ivo has advantages...he passed the test yesterday and I will back him to win NEWPORT!

[cryptocap]

sweaty...

[Lightning]

Trying to narrow down my picks a bit so I don't give like 10 each day...

ATP GSTAAD

- Youzhny -6.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Monteiro/Bellier UNDER 18.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

WTA BASTAD

- Erakovic to WIN - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

ATP WASHINGTON

- Fritz to WIN - $1.6 - ONE STAKE

Cheers!

[Lightning]

2-2 last night... not ideal but not disastrous. Erakovic fell off the ledge in a major way. Edited down about 30 initial games that I was interested in to seven picks, which I think is pretty good for the first day of a new week. Tried to boil it down to the ones I was most confident in.

MULTI

- Lepchenko to WIN A SET x Barthel to WIN A SET - $2.1 - HALF STAKE (WTA Stanford, WTA Sweden)

Both Lepchenko and Barthel made the semi-finals last year of their respective tournaments, so they have the ranking points to defend. Both have ordinary form otherwise though, so that's why the half stake.

- Buyucackay to WIN A SET x Denis Shapovalov +3.5 games x Robert TO WIN - $7.5 - QUARTER STAKE (WTA Sweden, ATP Washington, ATP Washington)

WTA SWEDEN

- Kiki Bertens -4.5 games - $1.75 - ONE STAKE

Bertens is by far the most improved woman this year. Of her last three tournaments on clay, she won Nuremberg, lost in the semi-finals to Serena Williams in the French Open, and lost the final of Gstaad to Golubic. That's 16 of her last 18 on clay, and her numbers on hard prior to that aren't bad either. She now has to be considered a genuine contender to almost every tournament she enters in. Her opponent, Mattek-Sands, is a flashy woman who (like a lot of people) is great when she's on, but very ordinary otherwise. She can be a shotmaker, and has a good serve, but Bertens is far too strong. Women generally have no issues breaking (as most of us know haha), and so -4.5 is a nice line.

ATP KITZBUHEL

- Jan Lennard Struff -4.5 games - $1.83 - ONE STAKE

Struff is a very solid player on clay. He's won 10 of his last 15 on the surface, but three of those losses were to good players in his last four games, and he lost to Tsonga in the French. Other than that, shot making and a great serve hold him in good stead. Santillan makes his living on the Futures circuit, and from what I can see, rarely plays up a grade. He's 19, to be fair to him, but that doesn't mean he isn't ripe for the picking. I think Struff should clear this by quite a bit.

ATP UMAG

- Teymuraz Gabashvili -6.5 games - $2.1 - ONE STAKE

I don't like laying 6 and a half on anyone, but when you consider that Gabashvili's opponent has played seven matches since 2013, I'm going to make an exception. A similar match occured between Bedene and Sederusic in 2014, and Bedene beat him 6-2 6-2. I consider Bedene to be about Gabashvili's level, and when you add in Teymuraz's good form, it's hard not to see a similar result happening against a state-level player.

- Renzo Olivo -3.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

LOVE THIS LINE! Olivo has just come off a semi-final, and you only have to lay three and a half??? Count me in. He'll be high on confidence after beating a number of good players (Philip Kohlscreiber, anybody?) and will be looking to back it up here. Confidence is everything, and look for Olivo to back this up.

- Klizan -4.5 games - $1.7 - HALF STAKE

Pretty self-explanatory. Klizan is quite possibly in the form of his life, and has been rewarded with a top thirty berth. Like I said before, confidence is everything. His game is actually pretty suited to clay, because he really rips that forehand. There is the possibility of tiredness, which is why I'm making this a half stake.

Cheers!

[cryptocap]

Errani breaks and is broken right back...WTA finest

[coolguy73739]

Nice win there on JLStruff.. ! very well targeted..

[ico2525]

Shapovalov is really beloved by Alan Boston. Line moved from > +300 to +250 in today's APT match.
s

[cryptocap]

Why are all the women in the Bastad draw huge dogs with better rank, form or h2h...


Knapp vs Barthel
Schmiedlova vs Siniakova
Golubic vs Errani

[Lightning]

Shapovalov is really beloved by Alan Boston. Line moved from > +300 to +250 in today's APT match.
s

He's going to be a great player... very advanced for a 17 year old.

[Lightning]

Why are all the women in the Bastad draw huge dogs with better rank, form or h2h...


Knapp vs Barthel
Schmiedlova vs Siniakova
Golubic vs Errani

Because book makers don't always look at form. Golubic is in form, yes, but Errani is the better player. Barthel got to the semis last year, ergo she'll be trying hard, and she's still better than Knapp. Schmiedlova was incredible laslt year but has fallen off the wagon.

The discrepancies are good though - you can target them.

[Lightning]

Nice win there on JLStruff.. ! very well targeted..

Thanks Would have gone 3-3 if I'd done full units on the half unit ones... always the way haha. Who would've seen Bertens losing????

[Lightning]

MULTI

- Golubic to WIN A SET x Errani to WIN A SET x Taylor Fritz OVER 11.5 games x Basilashvili/Sisjling OVER 22.5 games x Karlovic/Baker OVER 23.5 games - $11.5 - QUARTER STAKE (WTA Bastad, WTA Bastad, ATP Washington, ATP Kitzbuhel, ATP Washington)

- Dzumhur x Muller - $1.9 - ONE STAKE (ATP Croatia, ATP Washington)

Two guys that are overpriced (Muller is at $1.50!).

ATP WASHINGTON

- Coric x Sock x Monfils - $2.3 - ONE STAKE

Just all guys that should be winning.


ATP KITZBUHEL

- Gimeno-Traver to WIN - $1.7 (UNIBET or PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE

Almost everything in this match-up points toward a GT win. He's got 11 of his last 15 (with a couple tournaments on the ATP circuit), he's hitting them consistently, he has a h2h win over Melzer in straight sets two years ago (doesn't really mean much to be fair) and Melzer's won one of his last five on clay. The only 'but' is that Melzer is Austrian, and so is the tournament. He will get a bit of home support, but I'm confident that GT is playing at a high enough level to beat him regardless.

ATP CROATIA

- Jiri Vesely to WIN - $1.7 - TWO STAKES

Honestly can't believe this price. Berlocq has been playing well on the challenger circuit, but Vesely is a major step up. I don't really think I even need to explain this one.

WTA BASTAD

- Laura Siegemund -3.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

Hradecka has won her last three, admittedly, but the way Siegemund is playing, it takes a lot to beat her. It takes a lot to even cover the line. Siegemund has won four of her last five on clay, and 15 of her last 20. If you take out early round losses in the French and Nuremburg, and a loss to Kerber, she's won 15 of her last 17 on clay. Here's a phenomenal stat, though: In those last 15 wins, she has covered her line EVERY SINGLE TIME. If she wins, she covers the line. How good.

[maletaja]

Siegemund and Hradecka is nice match . Siegemund should be heavy favourite in my opinion altough H2H is interesting
I hope to see 6-3 6-2 straights
Golubic Errani game i dont know. Golubic has momentum, but Errani could still be hard to beat when its her day. Skip it