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Young is consistent? Where do you get this shit from. Couldn't even come close to making a challenger final on green clay. The Garbageman will be after that 2nd round loss check.Comment -
He is consistent - relative to Gabashvili. He just lacks attacking instinct.Comment -
Comment -
Thanks Fit.
It seems my bad luck is continuing. Haase has about 14 trillion chances to break Sock's serve and wasting all of them. Kovinic up a break and loses. Tormo shows absolutely none of them form that allowed her to trounce her qualifying opponents. Young losing to a guy who'd won 1 of his last 10. So frustrating to watch. At least Albot is showing a bit of fight.Comment -
COME ON! That's what I needed. Haase/Sock gone over. Hopefully that'll kickstart my night. Nishikori also looking very goodComment -
Hello rain.Comment -
off course fucken rain blows up everything
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Holy shit... blindly followed because I was tired after working and I wake up and see you haven't gotten a game right...Comment -
^one thing for sure 'bout this thread...
the OP didn't sell his soul to the devil when he opened it...
this is the sort of of negative-variance run that you expect to come along no more than once/twice a year...unfortunate to start off a thread in the midst of an uber-bad run like this tho' for anyone tailing (and especially the OP)
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i always reset my unit size to 2.5% (or 1/40th) of the project's bankroll (which expands with wins/shrinks with losses) at end of each day, so i always have a fresh supply of 40-bullets to fire every day...and i keep several projects going at any given time...so running extra-cold for a spell in any one project-thread like this doesn't bother meComment -
Yeah it does look bad, I agree, but everyone's had a streak like this. To be fair also, it's not even definite that I've hit a loss for tonight, and despite last week's horror show, I only lost about 3 units because of my outright recommendation on Thiem.
I'm not worried, because I've been in situations like this before and I've turned it around spectacularly, but I guess you guys don't know that haha. I suppose you're only as good as your record.Comment -
Classic example that my thinking is actually pretty good but things aren't with me at the moment - Kovinic had a chance to serve out the match, over 21.5 LOST despite the first set going to a tiebreak, Albot took it to five and lost despite being up a break, Watson is losing to a muppet on clay (hard is another story). Stupid things like that.Comment -
I like the Millman Isner overs as well too but havent played it, considering adding it
My main worry is that Isner wins in 3 but I can see him dropping a TB if Millman serves well. I rate Millman somewhere along the lines of a generic challenger player but when he doesnt miss he can play well.
It must be the Groth/unknown factor thats gotten him this far, Im amazed hes in the top 60
and This is after chumps like Newcombe saying Groth could be in the top 30-25 lmaoComment -
Yeah agree. I'm backing this to go to four/five, although I can easily see this having three tie breaks. Millman actually does have a pretty good game - he's one of those players that won't beat himself. Considering the history between them, I think Millman will see this as an opportunity to get into the second round against a guy that relies on his serve on clay.Comment -
Millman is probably worse than Pospisil on clay. Why do I say probably? Because I don't think he ever plays on it. None of the best Australian men were any good at this tournament. Don't blink during Groth match either cause you might miss it. Isner has some wins against all time greats on this surface. This is apples and a piece of plastic fruit in some fancy piece of shit kitchen somewhere.
Millman, decent 1st serve and forehand, no backhand or defense. His best win was over Muller at the AO this year. Even then was down 2:0, large crowd threw their drunken support behind him and Muller got tired and basically caved. He'll be checking out of l'hotel today, or tomorrow if he's into sight seeing.Comment -
TENNIS
There is still some carryover from yesterday.
MENS
- Fratangelo/Querrey OVER 38 games - $1.94 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
Bjorn has had an excellent lead up in challenger events, winning 8 of his last 10 and 12 of his last 15. Querrey has, admittedly, played better opposition, but even so, his form has been pretty average. He started well against Nadal but it's pretty hard to keep that standard of play throughout an entire match. Clay is his worst surface (apart from at home in Houston), and I think Bjorn sneaks a set and potentially the match.
- Gasquet -6.5 games - $1.9 - HALF STAKE
I know Bellucci comes in with good form, but he's playing Gasquet, at home. I'm not sure whether to trust the Brazilian's form, but I'm loathe to pass up a -6.5 line on someone as good as Gasquet. My only concern is whether Bellucci's topspin forehand will cause some problems for Gasquet's backhand, but Gasquet has the class and experience to deal with it. Only a half stake though.
- Schwartzman +2.5 games - $1.95 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
I was tossing up between Diego +2.5 or OVERS, but I decided on +2.5 in the end because I didn't want a scenario where Diego absolutely smashes Pella. Schwartzman has been in terrific form for the past fortnight or so, rolling a number of good clay players such as Verdasco, Dimitrov and Delbonis. His serve can be damaging when he lands it. I hope fading Pella doesn't come back to bite me, but I think he's still a little overrated. Let's hope it's not 3-1 to Pella, because that would irritate me so much haha.
- Kudla +4 games - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
I'm not 100% sure why Lajovic is fav. He's had some pretty terrible performances on clay over the last six months. He can pull it out when he has to but seems to lose to ordinary players. Kudla on the other hand, will be full of confidence. He had a decent run in the Savannah challenger, but before putting in a more than decent shift in Madrid; beating Becker, Karlovic and then taking Ferrer to three sets. It's not anything to write home about, but I'm happy to take 4 games on the better player RIGHT NOW.
- Murray/Stepanek UNDER 28 - $2 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
Stepanek was and is still a great player, but let's be honest - he's 37 and Murray is at the top of his game. Murray will want to get off to a great start, and Stepanek isn't going to be able to provide much resistance. He has a decent serve on hard, but it's clay, so that's one slight advantage gone. Murray will have the upper hand in every point played. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if the scoreline was 6-2 6-2 6-2.
Some others I like but don't have the confidence to make them staked plays :
Trungelliti +8.5
Wawrinka -7.5 games
You could combine them in a multi for about $4 and whack half a stake on if you wanted, but I won't count it in my records.
There might be more womens later.
Cheers!
Comment -
Like I said, I don't have time to handicap the womens right now - maybe later, but don't count on it.Comment -
TENNIS
The last couple days have not been amazing. Stepanek should not be taking two sets off Murray. I've lost about 5 plays by half a game. Guys up a break and losing. Regardless, there's not a lot I can do but keep going. These streaks happen every so often.
MENS
- Nadal -11.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Coric -5.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Ilhan +5.5 games - $1.94 - ONE STAKE
- Feliciano Lopez -5.5 games - $1.91 - ONE STAKE
- Kenny De Schepper to WIN - $2.2 - ONE STAKE
- Thiem 3-0 x Kohlscreiber - $2.10 - ONE STAKE
- Seppi/Gulbis OVER 39.5 - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
- Jo Wilfred 3-0 - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Donskoy +9 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Monaco -6 games - $1.9
- Zverev/Herbert OVER 38 - $2
WOMENS
- Razzano x Chirico - $1.83 - ONE STAKE
- Kasatkina x Gavrilova - $1.83 - ONE STAKE
Comment -
Except ignore the Siniakova and Kerber plays - games had already started.Comment -
TENNIS TIPS
WOMENS
- Wickmayer/Makarova UNDER 20.5 - $1.95 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
Both the previous matches between these two have been decided in two sets. Whilst I don't like going off prior h2h's, I think it shows the mentality of these two players. They'll either dominate or be lacklustre. I see whoever wins the first set winning the second easily.
- Garcia/Radwanska OVER 21.5 - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
Gold dust of a play. Garcia has won her last 6, but only really looked convincing in the final of Strasbourg and her first round match. On hard, I'd take Radwanska all day long, but clay is her worst surface because she can't take the ball early as she would like. The crowd will get behind Garcia, and I can see this ending in a win for the Frenchwoman in three close sets.
- Strycova x Stephens x Stosur - $2.2 - ONE STAKE
- Beck x Begu to WIN - $2.2 - ONE STAKE
Not a lot to say about those two plays, just backing in the favourites to do the job.
MENS
- Trungelliti +6.5 games - $1.72 - ONE STAKE
Trungelliti has been in great form, coming off three thumping qualifying victories and a demolition of Marin Cilic. Ramos beat him in their only h2h, but that was 2013 and in a different place and time. Ramos' form has been patchy, but I can't not take the value of +6.5 on a guy that's just knocked off a top 20 player. In saying that, it really wouldn't surprise me if he got beaten 6-1 6-1 6-1 - that's been my luck lately.
- Gasquet -8.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
Fratangelo was impressive against Querrey, as predicted. Gasquet, however, is different. He is more solid from the baseline, and is an oustanding shot maker when he's on. He can be quite defensive at times, but will have the crowd behind him and that should spur him on. Putting on a clinic in front of his home crowd would be great for confidence before a potential clash with the in-form Nick Kyrgios.
- John Isner -2.5 sets - $3.8 - ONE STAKE
I think the books have reacted a little too much to Isner's 3-1 and Edmund's win. Don't get me wrong - Edmund is a good player - but he's nowhere near as good as Isner. After the first set loss, Isner pulled his finger out and defeated Millman when he had to. I'll take the price and value.
- A. Martin +7 games - $2.1 - HALF STAKE
- Simon -4.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
Another overreaction in my opinion. When Simon is on, he's on. Playing in front of his home crowd, he should come out and look to kill the game very quickly. 4 and a half is NOT a huge line.Comment -
Just realised - I have lost 5 plays by half a game. F*ck that ahahaComment -
After a frustrating few days, finally had a winning night with a gain of 2.75 units. Hopefully the form continues tonight.
-Jo Wilfred Tsonga 3-0 - $1.90 - ONE STAKE
- Carreno-Busta -5.5 games - $1.83 - ONE STAKE
- Thiem -6.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Mathieu/Agut OVER 32.5 - $1.83 - ONE STAKE
- Granollers -4.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE
- Lopez -4 games - $1.98 - ONE STAKE
WOMEN
- Bouchard to WIN -$2.7 - ONE STAKE
- Petkovic -3.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Bertens -4 games- $19 ONE STAKE
- Cibulkova -4.5 games - $1.8- ONE STAKE
- Keys -5 x Chirico +2.5 - $4 - HALF STAKE
CheersComment -
TENNIS TIPS
- Kuznetsova -4.5 games - $2.1
Kuznetsova has had a great clay season so far, winning 8 of 10 full matches, with one of the losses coming to Serena in Rome. Kuznetsova's defensive skills make her a tough proposition to beat on clay, proved so far with two victories over Shvedova and Watson. She'll come up against her fellow Russian tonight full of confidence. She's beaten Pavlyuchenkova four out of five times with three of those coming in straight sets. They were all on hard, however, and on clay is a totally different thing. I think Kuznetsova will roll with her form into the fourth round, covering the line in the process.
- Stosur/Safarova OVER 21.5 games - $1.83
I'll start by saying that although all games on clay between these two women have gone over the line, that's not the only reason I'm choosing it.
Stosur has had an excellent european clay court season, winning 12 of 16 full matches and making the final of Prague. Clay has long been a surface that Stosur is very good on, with her kick serve and topsin very good weapons. Safarova is similar - having a great return and ripping topspin forehand. She won Prague before withdrawing early in Madrid and losing to Doi in Rome.
Both women will be pumped up for another match in this great rivavlry and it's hard to see either one of them running away with the match easily.
- Kvitova/Rogers OVER 20.5 games - $1.9
Kvitova is well known for taking even the most winnable of games into three sets. Combine that with Rogers' good form and we have a winner!
- Halep -6 games - $2
Osaka is a hard hitting youngster that will be fantastic in the future. Her style of play is generally to hit the ball flat and hard, but that doesn't really work as well on clay as grass or hard.
Halep is in incredible form at the present. She was eliminated by the Siegemund storm early in Stuttgart and Gavrilova in Rome, but in between won Madrid. She has covered her line comfortably in her two matches at RG and should do it again against the inconsistent Osaka.
MENS
- Nishikori -6.5 games - $1.9 - HALF STAKE
- Nishikori 3-0 - $2.1 - HALF STAKE
Nishikori is having a terrifc year so far, reaching the quarterfinals in every Masters tournament. Consistentcy is Nishikori's game and Verdasco will struggle to find a weakness. -6.5 over 3 sets is not asking a lot.
- Isner 3-0 - $3.8 - ONE STAKE
Isner won us a lot of money last game, and I'll back him in again. I can't help but feel GAbashvili is being overrated by the bookmakers so I'm happy to take the value. Edmund is better than Teymuraz and Isner beat him comfortably, although we all know it doesn't work like that haha.
- Kyrgios 3-0 - $5.8 - ONE STAKE
- Kyrgios to WIN - $1.8 - ONE STAKE
Regardless of the surface right now, Kyrgios is playing like a top 10 player. Playing on clay actually helps eliminate some wild shots because he has to really pick and choose his times to go hard. I definitely think he'll win, and am happy to take the value of $5.8 to beat Gasquet in straights.
- Wawrinka -6 games - $1.97 - HALF STAKE
- Wawrinka 3-0 - $2.2 - HALF STAKEComment -
TENNIS
As a note, I like Kuznetsova to beat Muguruza tonight but I'm not going to include it because I'm afraid I might be biased because I have her in futures bets.
MENS
Stan Wawrinka 3-0 - $2 - ONE STAKE
Stan Wawrinka -7 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
Troicki has surprised me a little bit, but he is known for being very good when he gets on a roll. He is a defensive type player who generally counters very well, but that style generally doesn't work on slower surfaces ala clay. Wawrinka has raised his level in every game so far, hitting more winners and less unforced errors. Troicki has also played two five setters this tournament. Wawrinka needs to keep going to retain his ranking, and he'll want to get on/off the court really quickly.
Ramos/Raonic OVER 36.5 - $1.95 - ONE STAKE
Ramos has had a few easy matches this tourney, but has still raised his level when he had to. He reversed Trungelitti's comeback at 5-5 when he was up 4-1 to win the match, and beat Jack Sock in a clutch third set. Raonic has been struggling a little to hold serve this week, dropping it more than he would've liked to someone like Andrej Martin. The pressure is all on Raonic here, and Ramos is going to come out with a 'nothing to lose attitude'. I like him to at least grab a set, and hopefully, challenge for the match.
Murray 3-0 x Nishikori to WIN - $2.50 - ONE STAKE
Isner will be no match for Murray on clay. Murray having those scares in round one and two perhaps made him appreciate the level required to play here, and in round three he turned it up. Isner relies on his serve for easy games, but on clay, it's not as effective (see Karlovic vs. Murray). Murray has just smashed a big server in big Ivo, and should do the same here. Gasquet played at an unbelievable level against Kyrgios, but to be fair, the Australian played with a shoulder injury so I'm not sure how the game would've panned out had he not had that. Gasquet has a 7-2 record against Nishikori, but those two losses were on clay, and this year. That reflects the Japanese national's form and comfort on the surface. Just like the other two matches this year, Nishikori should triumph to book a quarter final spot.
WOMENS
Rogers +3.5 games x Pironkova +5.5 x Stosur +4.5 - around $7.80 - HALF STAKE
Comment -
TENNIS
Last week at uni guys, and with exams I don't think I'll have a huge amount of time to do write ups. If Wawrinka wins his match tonight that'll be a much needed 5 unit gain on the 'to win his quarter' bet.
MENS - ONE STAKE
- Goffin -4 games - $1.9
WOMENS - ONE STAKE
- Bertens +3.5 - $2
- Bacsinszky -3.5 - $1.9
MAD MULTI
- Suarez Navarro -3.5 games x Murray -5.5 games x Wawrinka -6.5 games x Berdych +1.5 games x Djokovic -9.5 games - $25 - QUARTER STAKE
CHALLENGER PROSTOJOV
- Dzhumur x Ilhan - $3 - HALF STAKE
CHALLENGER FURTH
- Struff x Montanes x Kamke - $2.3 - HALF STAKE
Comment -
MENS
Got an exam this afternoon guys so, once again, I can't supply write ups for the games I'm choosing. If you follow tennis quite closely though, I imagine most of you would be able to follow my line of reasoning. My strategy is generally to follow the form.
WOMENS
- Bertens +3 games - $1.98
MULTI
- Djokovic to WIN 3-1 x Goffin +2.5 games - $7.20 - HALF STAKE
- Jaziri x Struff (Challengers Prostejov, Furth) - $2.1
CHALLENGER FURTH - ALL HALF STAKE
- Kovalik/Arnaboldi OVER 21.5 games - $1.9
- Jaziri to WIN - $2.10
CHALLENGER PROSTEJOV
- Kukushkin x Khachanov - $5.9 - HALF STAKE
CHALLENGER MANCHESTER
- Duckworth to WIN - $2.2 - TWO STAKES
Cheers!Comment -
Good Luck!!!!Comment -
MEN
- Wawrinka to WIN - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
WOMEN
- Stosur +4.5 games - $1.9 (PINNACLE) - ONE STAKE
- Bertens to WIN - $6.7 (PINNACLE) - QUARTER STAKE
CHALLENGER FURTH
- Kamke, Albot to WIN A SET x Struff to WIN - $2.6 - HALF STAKE
CHALLENGER MANCHESTER
- Kudla x Brown - $2.20 - ONE STAKE
- Kudla -2.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
CHALLENGER PROSTEJOV
- Cervantes x Khachanov - $3 - HALF STAKE
WTA BOL
- Mrdeza +5 games (PINNACLE) - $2 - HALF STAKEComment -
Switching to GRASS now.
ATP s'Hertogenbosch (I love saying that - if you want to nerd out your ffriends, pronounce it as 'Sertogenbosh'. Make sure you roll the r a tiny bit though)
- Mahut -3.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
- Escobedo +3.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE
ATP Stuttgart
- Groth - $1.85 - ONE STAKE
MULTI
- Barty x Darcis x Dutra Silva - $2.7 (WTA Nottingham Qualifiers, Lyon Challenger, Prague Challengenr) - ONE STAKE
WTA NOTTINGHAM
- Pliskova x Pliskova x Kontaveit - $2.10 - ONE STAKE
Cheers!Comment
