2016 Clay Court Season inc French Open Picks

**frugalgambler** · 05-08-16, 12:14 PM

Looks like my head was right: Djoker is steamrolling Murray. I should listen to my head more often.

Seems like a public burial on Murray. I have not seen a single play on Djoker ATS posted anywhere, but I saw 5-6 plays posted on Murray at various places. Too bad.

Addendum: looks like Djokovic is human after all. Good call, Jeff ! I think this is the first ATP match I am gonna watch in its entirety this year. A good one too.

**Jeff_Black** · 05-08-16, 08:23 PM

Thanks, it did seem to be a popular play amongst others. He was good enough to beat Nadal so in a way it's hard to see him losing to the Djoker who he should match up just as well with. Onward to Rome!
And yeah I wasn't really a fan of that line 4.5. Most probably went along with the Murray line because of his Semi. I was more worried Djoker would win a set 6-1 or 6-0 heh.

**Jeff_Black** · 05-08-16, 08:33 PM

ATP Rome Masters 1000, R1
Gael Monfils vs Tomaz Belluci
Set Handicap: Gael Monfils -1.5 sets @ 1.657 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Rome Masters 1000, R1
Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Dominic Thiem
Handicap: Alexandr Dolgopolov +4.0 @ 1.833 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Rome Masters 1000, R1
Ivo Karlovic vs Ernests Gulbis
Handicap: Ernests Gulbis -2.0 @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**fitguy67** · 05-09-16, 01:17 AM

at end of Madrid

114

87

+24.631

10.013%

246.00

**fitguy67** · 05-09-16, 07:57 PM

2016 tennis threads, all settled non-pushed plays till post #178 above inclusive

116

88

+25.341

+10.177%

249.00

**Jeff_Black** · 05-09-16, 08:48 PM

Alright, new rule
No backing French players this week, re-evaluate next week

**Jeff_Black** · 05-10-16, 12:11 AM

And instead i'll go the other way giving a bit of respect to another player who has done well on clay and this year in general. Damir isn't a spectacular player by any means. In fact I don't really rate his ceiling as much more then a top 30 or 25 player if that. But that doesn't mean he can punch above his weight and play well, especially against a mental midget like Chardy who is having an unspectacular year with several disappointing losses and a below .500 YTD on clay for the past 2 years. I'll take a bit of value at those odds and hopefully they reward me.

ATP Rome Masters 1000, R1
Jeremy Chardy vs Damir Dzuhmir
Moneyline: Damir Dzuhmir @ 2.09 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Rome Masters 1000, R2
Lucas Pouille vs Ernests Gulbis
Moneyline: Ernests Gulbis @ 2.15 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

He may be coming off a string of several losses for whatever reasons but it seems like Gulbis has found his groove in Rome just in time for the French Open. I think the odds are a bit too generous for a mug like Pouille (having watched him in Madrid and also lose to Querrey) and probably because he beat him in their Madrid qualifying match. Two tiebreaks aint a bad result for a guy like Ernests who had no confidence so with some confidence under his belt and his dispatching of big man Ivo I'll take him to exact revenge in a match with higher stakes.

ATP Rome Masters 1000, R2
Kevin Anderson vs Juan Monaco
Handicap: Kevin Anderson +3.0 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 05-10-16, 11:48 PM

ATP Rome Masters 1000, R32
Richard Gasquet vs Andreas Seppi
Total Score: Over 20.0 @ 1.970 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Rome Masters 1000, R32
Milos Raonic vs Nick Kyrgios
Moneyline: Milos Raonic @ 2.17 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**fitguy67** · 05-11-16, 01:23 AM

all non-pushed plays in Jeff_Black 2016 threads up to & including #182

116

91

+22.341

+8.865% of 252u risked

**Jeff_Black** · 05-11-16, 06:11 AM

And for anyone wondering, no I'm calm. It's very easy to lose your cool after three bets in very winnable positions lose.
I think they just tend to even out over the course but I don't think I have had three like that happen to me on a given day.
Hate nothing more then people who let their emotions get out of control and can't believe these sort of things happen and threaten to quit betting midway through when what seemed to be a sure thing starts faltering.
Unfortunately nothing is ever like that and no one should expect their bets to win

**Jeff_Black** · 05-12-16, 12:09 AM

ATP Rome Masters 1000: Outright Betting
Novak Djokovic @ 1.735 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

I'm very interested to see how he goes against Nadal/Kyrgios but he had little trouble in Madrid (a tournament he hasn't played in since the infamous blue clay fiasco) and as an already 4 times winner he knows what to do here. That said as loaded as the top half of the draw is there there is no one he will struggle with but I must admit a potential match up with Nadal or Kyrgios will be interesting...

ATP Rome Masters 1000, R16
Roger Federer vs Dominic Thiem
Total Score: Under 23.0 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Rome Masters 1000, R16
Richard Gasquet vs Kei Nishikori
Handicap: Kei Nishikori -3.0 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Rome Masters 1000, R16
Jeremy Chardy vs Andy Murray
Total Score: Over 20.0 @ 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Rome Masters 1000, R16
Nick Kyrgios vs Rafael Nadal
Handicap: Nick Kyrgios +4.0 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**frugalgambler** · 05-12-16, 12:51 AM

In his first match, Novak looked pretty bothered that he had to play in Rome. I think he would have paid a million bucks to fast forward this to RG. Not sure how much you can trust him, he would definitely sacrifice Rome to win RG. GL though.

**fitguy67** · 05-12-16, 02:52 PM

all settled non-pushed plays up to & including post#186

117

95

+19.293

+7.507%

257.00

excellent read on nadal's current form going into RG via performance numbers (including some fascinating percentages that indicate if the old "clutch"ness is still there)

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/en/betting-articles/tennis/is-nadal-on-track-to-win-french-open?dvc=d&ito=twitter&aup=True

**Jeff_Black** · 05-14-16, 10:37 PM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

In his first match, Novak looked pretty bothered that he had to play in Rome. I think he would have paid a million bucks to fast forward this to RG. Not sure how much you can trust him, he would definitely sacrifice Rome to win RG. GL though.

Tough draw for him, for sure
Hasn't looked convincing but is in the final nonetheless

**Jeff_Black** · 05-14-16, 10:38 PM

ATP Rome Masters 1000, Final
Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray
Handicap: Novak Djokovic -3.0 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

He's been battle hardened for this match despite not looking convincing at times. Playing two of the more in form players on clay this time around while Murray has rather had an embarrassingly easy route playing guys like Pouille and Chardy.
Will go the other way around this time compared to the overs. See how it goes

**GoBlue77** · 05-14-16, 11:47 PM

I'm going murray moneyline. I'm sure i will regret it but we'll see

**Jeff_Black** · 05-15-16, 12:00 AM

Surely this is the chance he seeks. Best chance I'd reckon. Only worried about the pissweak draw hasn't given him the biggest measuring stick of where he is at, but oh well.

**frugalgambler** · 05-15-16, 12:15 AM

I find your definition of "battle-hardened" to be funny. You say battle-hardened, I say completely exhausted.

**Jeff_Black** · 05-15-16, 12:24 AM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

I find your definition of "battle-hardened" to be funny. You say battle-hardened, I say completely exhausted.

Haha I agree it's a weird way of looking at it but we all forget he played one three set match in Monte Carlo before having several days off. Hoping that the fact he is a professional tennis player who's job it is to keep in shape will pay off here 🤗
Then as usual one week to put your feet up and rest up before RG.

If there is a chance for Murray it is without a doubt now

**fitguy67** · 05-15-16, 02:21 PM

updated to include the outright play at top of #186 as well as the bet on the final in #190

after a crap day, still looking at a great year in the making

117

97

+14.293

+5.455%

262

any yield north of 3% is excellent...north of 5% as we have here (esp. after a cold snap) is brilliant

**Jeff_Black** · 05-18-16, 06:20 AM

Thanks, yeah I decided to step away for a few days and recoup. Don't want to be going cold into the French but don't want a week long gap without following the tennis.
So I'll be posting a couple of plays each day to be in the loop.

Well done to those bold to back Murray, looked the fresher out of the two, really don't know what to make of RG now. But it'll be interesting

ATP Geneva 250, R16
Guillermo Garcia Lopez vs Rajeev Ram
Set handicap: Guiilermo Garcia Lopez -1.5 sets @ 1.609 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Geneva 250, R16
Tomas Belluci vs Federico Delbonis
Total Score: Over 22.5 @ 1.884 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**frugalgambler** · 05-18-16, 07:57 PM

GL, Jeff. Good to see you back. The draw at RG will be pretty important. With Djoker's luck he'll get Thiem or Monfils/Wawa/Nadal/Murray in the last four rounds.

**Jeff_Black** · 05-19-16, 02:58 AM

Thanks, should be taking it easy this week heh. French will be brutal the first few days for the punters.

ATP Nice 250, QF
Kevin Anderson vs Joao Sousa
Money line: Kevin Anderson @ 1.80 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 05-19-16, 06:37 AM

ATP Nice 250, QF
Alexander Zverev vs Giles Simon
Money line: Alexander Zverev @ 2.38
On pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

**Steamroller** · 05-19-16, 08:45 AM

Zverev

Leads tie-break 5-0 and loses 6-8.

**Lightning** · 05-19-16, 08:53 AM

Man that was clutch! Had OVER 22.5, thought I was done and dusted.

**Jeff_Black** · 05-19-16, 10:06 AM

Yeah I liked the over too but was worried about someone (ahem Simon) giving up
that said I've found him to be way too dodgy at times to take so Id rather fade him as a favourite
had 40-15 match points on Zverevs serve before blowing it

That said I was more disappointed I picked anderson, broken in both times in the same spot and the second up 40-0, we all know what he was thinking, happy to make up for it

**fitguy67** · 05-19-16, 10:09 AM

119

99

+15.662

+5.866%

267.00

**Jeff_Black** · 05-19-16, 10:10 AM

ATP Nice 250, QF
Adrian Mannarino vs Guido Pella
Set Handiap: Guido Pella -1.5 sets @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 05-19-16, 10:12 AM

Tbh if Zverev lost in the winning spot was in I would have called in a week and regrouped for the french
three losses after being up a set and a winning position would have been cursed bad luck lol

nothing worse then feeling like your luck has to turn around! And then continuing to lose

**Lightning** · 05-19-16, 07:26 PM

Yeah I agree about Simon. I hate backing as well, but the fact that it was in France made me think he'd have a set in him, and Zverev's form and record against him made me think he'd grab one as well. Almost not to be haha

**Jeff_Black** · 05-20-16, 12:35 AM

If you were on the other side you'd think you're cursed lol. But I am keen to suss out the draw when it's out and hopefully Simon has a dime in the rough player he's up against. His French Open results are less then spectacular but hes been making 4R and 3R the last few years so he can win a few matches too.

ATP Geneva 250, SF
Stan Wawrinka vs Lukas Rosol
Total Score: Over 20.0 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Nice 250, SF
Joao Sousa vs Alexander Zverev
Moneyline: Alexander Zverev @ 1.653 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Lightning** · 05-20-16, 10:03 AM

Bloody hell you have the luck of the devil, Jeff haha. Good work. Frustrated with Sousa, had him +2.5 and was going according to plan going into the third. Blown away.

**Jeff_Black** · 05-20-16, 10:38 AM

Yeah I almost decided not to do it but I decided that Zverev was playing with enough confidence to be worth backing. Even at the inferior odds to what it'd usually be.

Over 20.0 was a steal, with Rosol serving as well as he has been and an inconsistent Stan who seemed due to drop a set :P
I thought it'd pan out a little differently but a wins a win

**fitguy67** · 05-20-16, 11:45 AM

121

100

+16.240

+6.015%

270