2016 Clay Court Season inc French Open Picks

[fitguy67]

best time to gauge how well a year is going is after a crappy day...if you're still standing handsomely, then it's been a good year...

94

79

+12.774

+6.025%

212.00

to be yielding solidly-more-than-5% of your risked funds after a few months and a few hundred bets is outstanding...

[Jeff_Black]

Was tempted to do one or two more but when you are tempted then it's best to stay away. Besides I already had the outright pending as well so happy to leave it just that and focus on this week.
Will get some plays on the board tommorow and see how it goes. Pretty sure I did well this time last year with those picks.
As always aiming to do better!

[dalogester]

Do you guys like almagro or sousa?

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Estoril 250, R16
Stephane Robert vs Guillermo Garcia Lopez
Set Handicap: Guillermo Garcia Lopez -1.5 sets @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Istanbul 250, R16
Bernard Tomic vs Diego Schwartzman
Moneyline: Diego Schwartzman @ 1.699 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Istanbul 250, R16
Marcel Granollers vs Hyeon Chung
Moneyline: Marcel Granollers @ 1.666 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Apologies for posting really early games as well fellas, pinnacle don't have the start times (my time zone) so I rely on flash score and other bookies like william hill, but they post every game as 7pm but the game is two days later haha...

the atp WTA app for Apple also has the start times in that country so its kinda irrelevant for everyone else who isn't in that time zone either

will make a more conscious effort to post games that day

[fitguy67]

better to keep posting them when you hit them as you currently do...

we're big boyzngirlz and can see instantly on our own flashscores when they start

if you wait until day-of to post plays that you already locked in (but didn't post in order to not confuse the dolts)...considerable price-drift may have occurred while you were waiting...and instead of confusing the dolts, you'll be angering them with what they'll call your "bogus" prices etc. etc.

[Jeff_Black]

Very true, though every time I have posted odds that were readily available at the time and not something stale regardless if it was 4 hours before the game begins or 20 mins. Usually try to get plays in 5-10 at the least beforehand as I imagine people check the threads before play begins anyway.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Estoril 250, R16
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Taro Daniel
Set Handicap: Pablo Carreno Busta -1.5 sets @ 1.68 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[fitguy67]

"look out for number 1"...then worry about the rest of us faceless beneficiaries, lol...

meaning lock in plays for yourself FIRST, then post them as soon as reasonably possible, so tailgaters have a decent shot at getting a similar number as you (especially those with access to pinnacle)

I'm quite sure you're already doing this as i find i most often get the exact same # you posted if i catch it less than an hour or so after your post's timestamp

[fitguy67]

nice 4-0 run brings record to

98

79

+15.799

+7.314%

216.00

(last 2 columns specifying that the 15.799u earned are 7.314% of the 216 total units staked over the 177 non-pushed plays)

[Jeff_Black]

I'm quite sure you're already doing this as i find i most often get the exact same # you posted if i catch it less than an hour or so after your post's timestamp

Indeed I am!

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Estoril 250, QF
Nick Kyrgios vs Borna Coric
Set Handicap: Nick Kyrgios -1.5 sets @ 2.06 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Estoril 250, QF
Nicolas Almagro vs Leonardo Mayer
Handicap: Nicolas Almagro -2.0 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[posey_mvp]

Nice run yesterday Jeff!!

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks! Want to try pick a few things with better juice though

[fitguy67]

6 tennis-wieners in a row are very easy to swallow...

100

79

+17.839

+8.183%

218.00

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Estoril 250, SF
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Benoit Paire
Moneyline: Benoit Paire @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Istanbul 250, SF
Ivo Karlovic vs Grigor Dimitrov
Handicap: Ivo Karlovic +3.0 @ 1.854 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Munich 250, SF
Phillip Kohlscrieber vs Fabio Fognini
Set Handicap: Philipp Kohlscrieber 2-0 @ 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[posey_mvp]

Jeff on a heater.. good luck..

[posey_mvp]

ATP Estoril 250, SF
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Benoit Paire
Moneyline: Benoit Paire @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Istanbul 250, SF
Ivo Karlovic vs Grigor Dimitrov
Handicap: Ivo Karlovic +3.0 @ 1.854 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Munich 250, SF
Phillip Kohlscrieber vs Fabio Fognini
Set Handicap: Philipp Kohlscrieber 2-0 @ 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

would you still play Ivo Karlovic -2.5? (-105)?

[Jeff_Black]

It's funny how betting goes sometimes
Took Ivo plus two times at decent lines because he was slow off the blocks
Didn't take him since and he's won a few matches on his worst surface
Taking him today again after a good run and a Dimitrov who got out of jail against Vesely

So I'd say probably not :P
With my luck on him

[Conqueror]

Agree there's so much value on Ivo. His knee is probably healed.

[fitguy67]

if you're calibrating your Ivo-meter, dialing in the games-hc...you finally got a nice "click!"

102

80

+18.743

+8.481%

221.00

[Jeff_Black]

I had always thought there was going to be a tiebreak in the game much is the case of many of Ivos matches like that but sometimes you get unlucky if he serves second and gets broken once which is a difference of three games when the set is completed.
Other times he serves well all day and doesn't look like he will be broken but he will still lose 7 straight points :P

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Munich 250, Final
Phillipp Kohlscrieber vs Dominic Thiem
Total Score: Over 22.5 games @ 1.884 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u

Not the biggest fan of these final matchups, no idea who will win

[Jeff_Black]

With a fantastic week in the bag see you all for Madrid next week!

[fitguy67]

hey Jeff, here's a new thread worth checking out, likely to attract some of the better tenny-minds around here

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/tennis-betting/3255819-wta-clay-courting-madrid.html

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks, I usually try to browse around when I have the time to see what other people are on and liking, usually after I post my plays (don't want to be too influenced by others )

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R1
Feliciano Lopez vs Leonardo Mayer
Total Score: Over 23.0 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R1
Gael Monfils vs Kevin Anderson
Set Handicap: Gael Monfils -1.5 sets @ 1.689 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R1
David Ferrer vs Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Set Handicap: David Ferrer -1.5 sets @ 1.813 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

One more that I couldn't help but notice it had decent odds.

ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R1
Viktor Troicki vs Andrey Kuznetsov
Handicap: Viktor Troicki +3.0 @ 1.970 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[fitguy67]

at end of Munich ATP

103

80

+19.627

+8.841%

222.00

[Jeff_Black]

My ultimate goal is to get back to .600% for all plays
But if I fall short that's ok too, hopefully will just keep working towards that

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R1
Fabio Fognini vs Bernard Tomic
Set Handicap: Fabio Fognini -1.5 sets @ 1.769 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Incoming regret later but Fognini is a class above on clay despite his dodgyness at times. Bernard hasnt looked like hes given a crap on clay so still fadeworthy at this time of month. Hopefully Fognini's ball striking against Tomics poor movement gets the job done today...

ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R1
Santiago Giraldo vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Set Handicap: Roberto Bautista Agut -1.5 sets @ 1.68 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[fitguy67]

full update including L6 plays posted in #132, 133, 136

107

82

+20.674

+9.068%

228.00

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R2
Tomas Berdych vs Denis Istomin
Set Handicap: Tomas Berdych -1.5 sets @ 1.495 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R2
Kei Nishikori vs Fabio Fognini
Total Score: Over 20.5 games @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R2
Pablo Cuevas vs Gael Monfils
Set Handicap: Gael Monfils -1.5 sets @ 2.46 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R2
Feliciano Lopez vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Total Score: Over 23.5 games @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[posey_mvp]

ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R2
Tomas Berdych vs Denis Istomin
Set Handicap: Tomas Berdych -1.5 sets @ 1.495 on Pinnacle
Stake: 5u play

ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R2
Kei Nishikori vs Fabio Fognini
Total Score: Over 20.5 games @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R2
Pablo Cuevas vs Gael Monfils
Set Handicap: Gael Monfils -1.5 sets @ 2.46 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R2
Feliciano Lopez vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Total Score: Over 23.5 games @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Hey Jeff,

Out of all these plays which one do you feel the strongest?

[Jeff_Black]

Probably the first one :P

Second possibly the over 20.5