2016 Clay Court Season inc French Open Picks

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Houston, Fayez Sarofim & Co US Men's Clay Court Championship 250, QF
Jack Sock vs Marcos Baghdatis
Handicap: Marcos Baghdatis +3.0 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

-200 with this big risk does not deserve the play .. maybe something better today than Monaco

Indeed it was not haha

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Marrakech Open, Grand Prix Hassan II, SF
Jiri Vesely vs Borna Coric
Handicap: Jiri Vesely +2.0 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Marrakech Open, Grand Prix Hassan II, SF
Federico Delbonis vs Albert Montanes
Set Handicap: Federico Delbonis -1.5 sets @ 1.757 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[fitguy67]

latest update

80

67

12.173

6.652%

that's 80-67, +12.173u (+6.652% of the 183u risked)

hmmm...let's try to c&p it all in one step...

80

67

12.173

6.652%

183.00

if u like Jeff, I can quickly cut&paste an insta-update like this after ever few-days' worth of action...

outstanding work so far this year!

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks man, just do as you please no need to ask me haha. In the mean time I'll just keep grinding out profits

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Houston, Fayez Sarofim & Co US Men's Clay Court Championship 250, Final
Fedederico Del Bonis vs Borna Coric
Moneyline: Federico Del Bonis @ 1.606 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

[Jeff_Black]

That'll be it for me, time to focus on Monte Carlo

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, R64
Phillipp Kohlschreiber vs Borna Coric
Handicap: Phillipp Kohlschreiber -3.5 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, R64
Tomaz Belluci vs Guillermo Garcia Lopez
Handicap: Guilermo Garcia Lopez -1.5 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, R64
Grigor Dimitrov vs Filip Krajinovic
Set Handicap: Grigor Dimitrov -1.5 sets @ 1.699 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[fitguy67]

after apr09 (vesely/coric, delbonis/montanes)

81

67

13.107

7.123%

184.00

which corrects an error in my last post which failed to account for the win on the 1u play@1.934

___________________
after apr10 (delbonis/coric)

82

67

14.925

7.981%

187.00

[GoBlue77]

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, R64
Phillipp Kohlschreiber vs Borna Coric
Handicap: Phillipp Kohlschreiber -3.5 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, R64
Tomaz Belluci vs Guillermo Garcia Lopez
Handicap: Guilermo Garcia Lopez -1.5 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, R64
Grigor Dimitrov vs Filip Krajinovic
Set Handicap: Grigor Dimitrov -1.5 sets @ 1.699 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

no faith in bellucci huh

[Jeff_Black]

no faith in bellucci huh

Not a lot on the best of days, IMO
Might be totally wrong on the matchup though

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, R64
Alexander Zverev vs Andrey Rublev
Set Handicap: Alexander Zverev -1.5 sets @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

after apr09 (vesely/coric, delbonis/montanes)

81

67

13.107

7.123%

184.00

which corrects an error in my last post which failed to account for the win on the 1u play@1.934

___________________
after apr10 (delbonis/coric)

82

67

14.925

7.981%

187.00

I must be on like 20 pushes by now though haha 😞

[fitguy67]

i just ignore pushes in my accounting as they are in essence ineffective $-wise, thus worthy of "no account"

_____________

in tennis, GRADING pushes however is a "thing", with records able to be spun to "have it both ways" on ML-bets affected by retirement (claim you were saved by a push when your guy retired, pretend you got the win when the other guy retired)...

but this is NOT an issue with you because you state up front with every play where you booked it (which almost exclusively is pinnacle--a "one set completed=action" book) and thus your ML-grading in the case of retirement is unambiguous

_____________

as for spreads and totals landing right on the frakkin' number it's exactly the same in tennis as with team sports, where you swear Murphy's Law and/or Rod Serling (creator of the "Twilight Zone") are running the universe

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah that's why I take spread bets as often as possible as the only time I am not refunded is on a money line bet. If it goes to that. Spread bets imply the other player whether you backed them or not had a chance to cover even in the unlikely and impossible case that they don't.

For example (not sure if it was posted here or not) but I took Stan on the spread against Kyrgios during that infamous 'sledge'. And thought I would not get my money back when Stan retired. Turns out I did.
But if I was on the other horse no doubt the same would happen.

Nothing worse then having a winning bet up for the other guy to retire though.

[Jeff_Black]

Some bookies if you quote the rule book will pay out on an unfinished bet that will definately cover. But on initial grading they will void it.
Say you had an over 17.5 total games and the score was 7-6, 4-2 (ret)
To me that is a win.
But it won't count as one
But then that works the other way and it should be a loss. Bookies will most likely keep your money and ignore the 'match must be completed for bet to stand' rule.

Like you said though better not to include it but it implies one has done waaay less plays then they have. That's the only negative I see. But a small price to pay.
Certainly a reminder one could have done worse

[fitguy67]

you're right, the spread and total bets have built in "retirement insurance" which may please/piss you off depending on which side retired and the scoreline involved...

sometime the angle you're playing incorporates one side's very-real likelihood of retiring if it appears they'll have to struggle more than they'd like in the face of this matches relative importance in the overall calendar...then it's def. better to play ML where you'll get paid when such a "resource marshalling " (and sometimes a mere "face saving" a la Serena late in a first set against someone she just finds pesky, like Cornet) retirement in fact happens
____________
i definitely prefer push-excluded calculations of ROI...but this doesn't rule out keeping side-tallies of statistics related to plays that ended up not affecting the bankroll for one reason or another

[fitguy67]

kwik update on 2 plays today (both wins for +1.591u) ...kohli tomorrow

84

67

+16.516

+8.739%

189.00

[Jeff_Black]

I thought three of my plays got up? 😛

[fitguy67]

yeah, just posted the results of the first two of your three plays that graded today (didn't wait for the last one largely cuz i wanted to see how well a revised section of a sports-betting sheet i'm always trying to automate would cut&paste to the forum...)

that kohli-3.5>coric play you posted with them is scheduled for about 8 hours from now...nice if it completes the sweep

[Jeff_Black]

Ahhh yeah fair enough, all good

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, R16
Ivo Karlovic vs Joao Sousa
Handicap: Ivo Karlovic +3.0 @ 1.980 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Probably the last time i'll bet on Dr Ivo at this spot at these odds if he doesn't perform. I know he's an old man, is very average on clay and has lost a lot of matches, retired in some few matches too but I'll take buy low at these odds. Had been eyeing it for a day but wanted to sleep on it.

[fitguy67]

after kohli comes thru and karlo doesn't (as feared)

85

68

+16.477

+8.627%

191.00

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, R32
Alexander Zverev vs Marcel Granollers
Handicap: Alexander Zverev -3.5 @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, R32
Richard Gasquet vs Lucas Pouille
Set Handicap: Richard Gasquet -1.5 sets @ 1.621 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Will be taking a bit of solace knowing many people got burned yesterday with all the upsets.

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, R16
Roger Federer vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Set Handicap: Roger Federer -1.5 sets @ 1.671 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, R16
Gilles Simon vs Stan Wawrinka
Handicap: Gilles Simon +3.5 @ 1.787 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[fitguy67]

action up to post #57 (R32 MonteCarlo) completed

85

70

+14.477

+7.501%

193.00

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, R16
Jiri Vesely vs Gael Monfils
Set Handicap: Gael Monfils -1.5 @ 1.884 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, QF
Rafael Nadal vs Stan Wawrinka
Money line: Rafael Nadal @ 1.792 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, QF
Roger Federer vs Jo Wilfriend Tsonga
Set Handicap: Roger Federer -1.5 sets @ 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Actually I am going to make Nadal a 2 unit play and not 1. But more confident then usual but as always not too overconfident.

[Don_Omarion]

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, QF
Rafael Nadal vs Stan Wawrinka
Money line: Rafael Nadal @ 1.792 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, QF
Roger Federer vs Jo Wilfriend Tsonga
Set Handicap: Roger Federer -1.5 sets @ 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

was thinking to play the same wager , but preferred to play -2,5 games depending on any strange situation that may happen

did not get good line on -2 games so took -2,5 @1.71

best of luck for us , Jeff

[Jeff_Black]

Same to you as well man. Although I agree -2.5 is good I just wanted the extra juice with the 2-0 set betting and if he wins 4-6 6-4 6-3 then well I'll look silly hah.
He has played only two matches that are suitable matchup wise to him since January but I've seen enough from him to suggest the break has done him well.
Tsongas a tough guy to fade but if federer brings his game he knows how to play him and Tsonga would need a big performance Imo anyway.
see how it goes and hopefully a good result for us.

[Conqueror]

Jeff,

Nice to see you on Nadal. He's my top play for Friday tennis.

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah I've been happy enough with nadal to know he's losing losing matches rather being beaten. That said Stan if he plays his best should win but if Nadal is in control I think he will be fine. Also remembering he's won here 8 times even though I'm not sure if he will win the title I still think he will win this match.
The scoreline against Simon wasn't as bad and lopsided as suggested as several games went to deuce and Stan was nearly broken several times coming back from 0-40 down.
Buying high at those odds from Nadal.

[Conqueror]

Interestingly, 17 of the last 18 Nadal/ Wawrinka meetings have been won in straight sets irrespective of who wins.

[Jeff_Black]

And the trend continues. Too many UEs from Stan. His odds wil probably be average now but Nadal to
Win Monte Carlo ain't bad even though my smoky is Monfils

[Conqueror]

Smoky is Monfils? Can Monfils overcome miracle boy, Granollers?

[Jeff_Black]

I think so, seems to be a good day for the Favourites.
I was tempted to take Monfils 2-0 or a line but with Federer fluffing up the second set I'll leave it for today and take the small profit