Thanks for the pick on Berdych !
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^^and thanks for last 2 days' stash of your WTA picks...nailed 6 matches perfectly on the bounce, with one pending
you two guys are an ATP/WTA book-killing combination right nowLast edited by fitguy67; 05-04-16, 02:04 PM.Comment -
110 83 +24.149 +10.233% 236.00 Comment -
All good, I actually had a bit of a longer reply as to why I thought Berdych 2-0 sets was a solid play but had to leave the house and never got around to finish writing it, but I was really surprised they had the odds so high against a player of Istomins character. I imagine they juiced it up a tad because of his loss to Dzuhmir thinking people may be put off and the uncertainty of his form. But it's hard to see him having back to back bad tournaments.
Would probably be lucky to be 1.25 or 1.30 on any other given day against a guy of Istomin's calibre and averageness on the clay surface. And the fact that the matchup sits right into Berdych's hand unless Istomin holds his own on the service side which usually happens once every blue moon against the top guys.
To a lesser extent Djokovic was a similar example with the slight extra juice although obviously not worth playing. That said I swear they played Davis Cup at one point but perhaps it seems not and my mind is playing tricks on me.
He did save a break point in that second set so it was slightly riskier if Coric did convert it but he didn'tComment -
Yeah, I figured Istomin is no good on clay, but I do not usually cap ATP. So I would not have played this if it was not for your 5u play.
Nice thread you got going, btw.Comment -
Thanks, you too with your thread, I would like to make more of a contribution but I do know follow WTA enough :P
Pretty sure I have posted one WTA play on my threads for 2016 and it was a push after looking like a sure loss, and then a good chance as a win as well afterwards haha. And then a sure thing for a loss.
I do not post those bigger plays often but when I do I am pretty confident. Posting them more often will lead to losing and it's not worth risking the bankroll often at that expense. Every while and then I can justify it and will continue to do so until they lose more often.Comment -
ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R16
Jack Sock vs Joao Sousa
Handicap: Joao Sousa +4.0 @ 1.884 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R16
Gilles Simon vs Andy Murray
Total Score: Over 20.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
(This has been set to 21 on Pinnacle (adjustable) as default but other books such as William Hill have it at about 1.83 for 20.5)
ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R16
Richard Gasquet vs Kei Nishikori
Handicap: Richard Gasquet +2.0 @ 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
ATP Madrid Masters 1000, R16
Tomas Berdych vs David Ferrer
Moneyline: Tomas Berdych @ 1.74 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u playComment -
ATP Madrid Masters 1000, QF
Novak Djokovic vs Milos Raonic
Set Handicap: Novak Djokovic -1.5 sets @ 1.52 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play
ATP Madrid Masters 1000, QF
Rafael Nadal vs Joao Sousa
Handicap: Joao Sousa +6.5 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u playComment -
Hmm. You really think Raonic will not be able to make it interesting ? Novak has not yet faced a decent opp in Madrid, and Milos has been looking pretty decent. The conditions in Madrid are also pretty fast for clay. I am thinking about Raonic + Berdych ATS. Don't think it will be a cakewalk for Djoker and Murray tomorrow.Comment -
Yeah it's an interesting matchup because while Raonic has beaten Murray a few times (although Murray had won the last 4) for some reason or other he cannot do the same to Djokovic or at least come close (which he has done once).
I think one of those reasons is because Djokovic punishes second serves harder then anyone on the tour, except maybe Nadal (who amongst the top players has one of the worst first serve return in the game) so when Raonic is getting in 50-55% of his first serves in it becomes a lot harder for him to get into his favourable positions in the rallies, and against a guy like Djoker that'll make you work for your points its a big no no.
And his return game has been no different here against two guys who were getting over 50% over their first serves and Bautista was getting 60%+. Raonic has a healthy winning percentage on his second serves but I think that number will be different in this tournament looking at their previous head to heads. The Indian Wells final still scares me enough not to take on the Djoker in this spot anyway :P
Not to say it wont be a close two sets, either, It very well could. but the 4.5 line is about right in my eyes but worth a play for those who are confident in it.
So in this instance I'm taking the higher risk in stake at a lower risk in odds and hopefully it pays my faith.Comment -
As for Berdych I had that on the board as a third game as I was not interested in touching Kyrgios and Nishikori however Im not exactly sure how it will pan out. So I left it out.
Like you, I did really fancy the +3.5 (was hoping for +4) but Murray did not really do much wrong against Simon and took his chances despite Simon not showing much and crumbling under the pressure a bit (30-15 up, when he was broken at the end of the first set and start of the second).
Berdych has been winning a lot of his points on the first serve which is great despite a little lull at the end against Ferrer I was worried about him getting his first serves in which probably made it more difficult to close it out against Ferrer who is statistically one of the top returners in the game. Against Murray I think it'll have to be better as I think Murray will make things more difficult for him with lower percentage shots as opposed to Ferrer who usually is the other way around.
Thats my main worry, but his ball striking has been good in Madrid and if he keeps that up he won't make it easy for Murray IMO.Comment -
Thanks for the very detailed reply, Jeff. I am probably still going to go with my gut feeling, which one should probably fade b/c I am not really following ATP that much. I don't follow WTA that much either, but I like watching WTA and reading about chicks more than doing the same with dudes.
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This counts for nothing but will still say it:
Berdych/Murray
Yes, Berdych is 3-0 against Murray on clay but that was a long time ago. Don't see Berdych winning a set against Murray here. Call: Murray in straights.
Kyrgios/Nishikori
Nishikori doesn't have the most devastating of serves but his placement Will trouble the exuberant Kyrgios.
Call: Incude Nishikori ML in all your parlays.Comment -
Yeah I didn't want to use that Berdych stat against a murray as a be all and end all. Heck Nishikori snapped a six game losing streak against Gasquet heh.
It does seem like it could potentially be a good day for the squares and favourites so will see how it all pans out.
Speaking of Nishikori Nick seems to adjust well after losing to a player the next time he plays them, did t against Stan and Berdych this year, not saying he will beat Nishikori but he did some good things in Miami or wherever it was but not expecting miracles.Comment -
112 85 +23.773 +9.905% 240.00 Comment -
Haven't been here for ages but just wanted to say quality thread Jeff Black! And even though you're doing well unit wise, I'm mainly referring to the rest.
Refreshing to see after the days of Matt and unlimited imaginary staking with little regard for the consequences.
Might start a thread myself so we can bounce plays of each other
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Ahhh yes hahaha we all know a mug like this Matt fella who likes to throw shit at a wall and hope some of it sticks!
BOL to you too JC and thanks for stopping byComment -
ATP Madrid Masters 1000, SF
Rafael Nadal vs Andy Murray
Set Handicap: Rafael Nadal -1.5 sets @ 2.52 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play
A surprising pick but as much as I want to back Murrays side of making this match more competitive I think the odds are too good to resist on a Nadal play here. sure Murray was able to take a set off him in Monte Carlo and beat him last year and that's exactly why we have to go the other way and zag while everyone else zigs.Comment -
Gutless performance by Nadal. His footwork is a mess. Couldn't even get in position to attempt to track down all but one of Murray's drop shots. Had 3 40-15's for breaks and couldn't convert. He needs to get back on the roids. He's slow to react and can't run. Killer instinct gone and missing the basic shots now as I watch. Losing to head case Murray on clay
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Epic choke job by this bummComment -
Fool me once, fool me twice! Oh well, aside from his struggle against Stepanek Murray has sure turned the ship around, bad read on his form, or mislead by the hype on nadal to win the French againComment -
Djoker is looking pretty good out there. The final tomorrow will be interesting.Comment -
113 87 +22.813 +9.350% 244.00 Comment -
This is just eerie. A big final tomorrow and the forum is just deserted. I mean are there other secret places I do not know of ? The covers forum blows, and that's it as far as I know.
Anyway, would be interesting to see what Jeff thinks about the final tomorrow (and MGT too). My hearts says over, but my head says Djoker in a blowout victory. Should be a good match in any case.Comment -
Yeah man I've been thinking about the final and I think I'm gonna give Murray a bit of respect here. He's the defending champ and it took three sets for Nadal to beat him in Monte Carlo. My main worry is that Nadal didn't convert his opportunities as much as Djokovic does and everyone in the semis seemed to have a below 50% second serve conversion rate which just shows you how competitive the semis were. And aside from Novaks early exit in Monte Carlo everyone has been in pretty good form on clay as well as Kei.
So with that said I'm happy to take the overs here. Knowing everyone's and my luck Novak will win 6-3 6-2 or something haha...
ATP Madrid Masters 1000, Final
Novak Djokovic vs Andy Murray
Total Score: Over 21.5 games @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u playComment -
Maybe Murray is taking advantage of Nadals physical decline like he did last year.
But I did watch their entire last match at Monte Carlo as well as how Nadal manhandled Murray in London last year on a surface that should favour him as we all know how Nadal hates short points heh.
I'll put my hand up and admit I bought into the hype. He hadn't played a lot of the top players until Murray in these tournaments and Stan who is rocks or diamondsComment -
GL Jeff. My heart agrees with you, although my head is pulling in a different direction.
Did you watch the women's final ? Halep might actually win RO this year. I think those +900 futures look pretty attractive.Comment -
I will also add my very main worry is that Novak has been killing it in all his finals.
9 straight sets won aside from the 7-5 7-6 against Murray in Australia it's been 6-3 or better in all his set wins and a 4-0 ATS.
But my other theory is that H2h still haunts Nadal and to let Djokovic get one up on him before the French would be a tough one to swallow.
So he is avoiding him again, mind you it's not the first time he has done it and with Federer when he was in average form last year...might have been Rome actually and Federer was in good form making the final.
Novak Shanghai was another example last year too.
Conspiracies...hehComment -
I saw the odds and was thinking of parlaying it with djoker 2-0 but I decided after losing on Nadal maybe in not reading it right.
I thought after that demolition of Stosur surely she can't go back t being inconsistent haha.
In regards to the men's without A doubt as I said it would not surprise me to see djoker win 6-3 6-1 or something!Comment -
We'll just have to see if Halep can keep it together. But with Sharapova sidelined and Serena's and Aza's status uncertain, this performance in Madrid just made her a frontrunner for the RG crown, at least in my eyes. But I also tend to get too excited about a player after one or two good matches. Rome next week will be very interesting: Serena and Aza are scheduled to play and the conditions should be closer to RG than the fast clay of Madrid.Comment -
Yeah it seems like Serena is going for the slam glory these days evident as she didn't play any tune ups before Austtalia.
That said Halep is a former finalist as well and seems like she is due for a breakthrough. Last year I think she was getting death threats and it affected her mentally I think but it's a new year now.
Am tempted to chuck 0.5 of a unit either way outright.
Rome will be interesting. I just hope she doesn't kill it or it'll lower the odds...
Do share your thoughts before RG though 😉Comment -
Wow, I missed that somehow. Death threats from none other than Danish fans, funny. I thought Danes were not exactly a tough crowd in the 21st century, the days of Vikings are long gone.
I will probably have a thread on RG, maybe even on Rome next week. Rome will be a litmus test for RG. If Serena does not do well there, I do not see her winning the RG. The lack of match play and conditioning will be too much to overcome, unless she gets a real easy draw. Ditto with Aza's injury: if she cannot play in Rome, she probably won't do well @RG either. Halep would be a fav over everybody else, except maybe Kerber, if Kerber wins Rome next week.
Oh, and GL tomorrow. I am gonna be rooting for a good match too.Comment -
Yeah it happened right before Madrid so no surprise she was a bit shaky. Hopefully it's a good match I agree.
ATP Rome Masters 1000, R1
Benoit Paire vs Bernard Tomic
Total Score: Over 20.5 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u playComment
