2016 Clay Court Season inc French Open Picks

**Jeff_Black** · 05-21-16, 07:18 AM

I dont really like either final, so I'm gonna leave it at that and head towards getting geared up for RG

And normally I am not a fan of posting 'leans' because people take it as gospel and there's no point of posting something I'm not wagering on anyway heh.

**Jeff_Black** · 05-22-16, 11:55 PM

Lets hope this sucky weather and pathetic excuse for a Major tournament can get their s**t together for two weeks and not feel like an ATP 250 event. Without further adoo let's kick things off!

As most saw with much success at the Australian Open I'm a fan of looking at the biggest arse lines the bookies have to offer, and taking them. Here will be no different. There were a few examples of this yesterday such as Nick Kyrgios squeezing out three close sets despite being -8.5 as well as Benoit Paire winning in 5 sets.

ATP Roland Garros 2000, R128
Milos Raonic vs Janko Tipsarevic
Handicap: Janko Tipsarevic +8.0 @ 1.934 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Despite a slow revival to a once decent career Tipsarevic is back in the main draw of the French Open, a surface which he had done well in the past and beaten notable big name Marat Safin once upon a time. This time around he comes back ranked 686 but even before he was a household name he was an unseeded threat to the players ranked above him.
The line of 8 is a bit generous for a player like Raonic who did not even play at RG last year but during the hardcourts has found his groove back a little. During the clay Masters he made a respectable effort in the QF losing comfortably to Murray and Djokovic before being bundled out by Nick Kyrgios in the R32.
A combination of being a slow starter sometimes in tournaments and being weaker on clay combined with Tipsarevic knowing how to play against him despite a 0-4 record makes this a good play for mine. The likelyness of a TB as well is not out of the question.

ATP Roland Garros 2000, R128
Julien Benneteau vs Lucas Pouille
Handicap: Julien Benneteau +7.0 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I don't mind fading a player I don't entirely trust despite Pouille having seemingly a career year. That doesn't take away from the fact that he has not made it past R128 in a Grand Slam since The French Open in 2013. And I think his Rome run is a tad overrated.
I don't think Benneteau will let him have it easy and it was a similar situation with a similar line when he played Almagro in Australia early this year. With his ability to win sets and not seeming to mind playing 5 set matches and with Pouilles inexperience and unknowingness outsideof three sets ill take the plus again.

ATP Roland Garros 2000, R128
Dmitry Tursunov vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Handicap: Dmitry Tursunov +10.0 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I thought this may have been 8 or 9 but 10? Strange for sure. He's been subpar but I would be surprised if he lost heavily to Roberto. Considering what we know he is capable of on clay. A guy who is just as inconsistent and capable of dropping a set. He has fallen off a bit and i'll gladly take that huge line and hope it doesn't bite me.

**frugalgambler** · 05-23-16, 01:18 AM

You don't think Tursunov is just making an appearance to get the first round paycheck ?

**Lightning** · 05-23-16, 01:21 AM

I like the Tursunov play a lot - but my question with Raonic is whether Tipsarevic has the match practice to keep up. Even against Kyrgios (one of the best servers on the tour), Raonic would frequently get it to deuce.

**Don West** · 05-23-16, 01:54 AM

Originally posted by Lightning

Even against Kyrgios (one of the best servers on the tour), Raonic would frequently get it to deuce.

Just go away.

**Don West** · 05-23-16, 02:22 AM

Tursonov is basically in Youzhny territory at this point. I don't think Bautista needs to be 60 percent healthy to beat this guy that got blown off the court by Lacko in Houston where he used his protected ranking I believe. If you hit this it'll be by no less than 1 game.

Don't like the Tipsarevic play. Moya has a win here and I think Raonic has an outside shot too. An out of practice over the hill Tipsarevic who was great in his day should look like chopped liver to Raonic who played a very respectable effort vs Novak in Madrid.

You've chosen a bunch of people who just showed up because they could. Every one of them would absolutely get their ass handed to them on the Champions circuit.

I don't think there's a such thing as just showing up for the check. I think you enter, and then hope for a good draw. Then if you don't get one, you become a check collector. None of these 3 have anything resembling a winnable match.

Klizan might be a check collector today. I bet some of the other players even thought he probably was dead.

**Jeff_Black** · 05-23-16, 02:45 AM

Originally posted by Lightning

I like the Tursunov play a lot - but my question with Raonic is whether Tipsarevic has the match practice to keep up. Even against Kyrgios (one of the best servers on the tour), Raonic would frequently get it to deuce.

He doesn't need to keep up a whole lot, just enough to cover the line

Do remember Raonic is a poor returner and on a clay surface that requires rallying it's tough to say whether he will go for the kill. If this was round 2 or three I'd think more about it. But for a first round match there are plenty of examples in the past in my grand slam threads in the AO Open and US Open where they have not gotten up.
Id rather take big lines over the opposite as say someone like Nadal SHOULD cover against Groth -11.5 but you get a 6-4 set, you're nearly screwed...

I've noticed you've gone the opposite after looking so BOL

**Jeff_Black** · 05-23-16, 02:47 AM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

You don't think Tursunov is just making an appearance to get the first round paycheck ?

He can serve backhanded and look like he doesn't give a damn in the world as long as he covers the line

I take it you aren't doing ATP in RG?

**Don West** · 05-23-16, 02:47 AM

Moya won't let Raonic phone in.

**Don West** · 05-23-16, 02:53 AM

Groth has as much a chance for 4 games in a set as I do climbing Mt Everest barefoot.

**Lightning** · 05-23-16, 03:42 AM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

He doesn't need to keep up a whole lot, just enough to cover the line

Do remember Raonic is a poor returner and on a clay surface that requires rallying it's tough to say whether he will go for the kill. If this was round 2 or three I'd think more about it. But for a first round match there are plenty of examples in the past in my grand slam threads in the AO Open and US Open where they have not gotten up.
Id rather take big lines over the opposite as say someone like Nadal SHOULD cover against Groth -11.5 but you get a 6-4 set, you're nearly screwed...

I've noticed you've gone the opposite after looking so BOL

I agree with that, and in the past I would not have dared take a -8.5 line. BUT, Raonic has progressed to the point where I wouldn't fade him unless he's playing a good player, and Tipsarevic is definitely not that. He got his ass handed to him in two challenger events and Delbonis covered a -5.5 game line against him. Plus, he knows his weakest surface is clay, so he'd want to get off to a decent start and make a statement.

IT'll be interesting, good luck to you as well!

**Jeff_Black** · 05-23-16, 08:54 AM

Typical Raoshit in the end there. Unfortunate for ya man

**Lightning** · 05-23-16, 09:12 AM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

Typical Raoshit in the end there. Unfortunate for ya man

hahahahahahahahahah

f*ck

**Lightning** · 05-23-16, 09:12 AM

It's funny because the ways things are going, it had to happen

**Jeff_Black** · 05-23-16, 09:48 AM

He had to make it more dramatic win the triple break point and being down 0-2 in the TB too

**Jeff_Black** · 05-23-16, 11:19 PM

Well as I mentioned yesterday the biggest steals were the biggest lines and yet again that was proven correct with Stan Wawrinka failing to cover and by my math Murray will need 6-2, 6-0 to cover as well. Then there was Gilles Simon -7.5 and Marin Cilic (the highest losing seed so far) who also failed to cover large lines. Kei Nishikori and Richard Gasquet went through with ease on the other hand and a few others are still in play.
Many of those players were also outside the top 100 with the highest ranked being Rosol (59). It goes to show anyone on their day can put up a fight.

Anyway lets see what the board has in store for us today!

ATP Roland Garros 2000, R128
Tobias Kamke vs Pablo Cuevas
Handicap: Tobias Kamke +8.0 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Kamke has come through three qualifying matches and with a big line it's a match we have to look into a bit further. He seems to like the hardcourt surfaces more but he can also play on clay having won several Challenger titles on the surface. That said Cuevas is a large step up from the competition he has faced but as a player who seemingly doesn't win as many comfortable matches as he should due to perhaps a bit more reliance on his serve I don't mind taking the big line here.

ATP Roland Garros 2000, R128
Vasek Pospisil vs Tomas Berdych
Handicap: Vasek Pospisil +8.0 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Yes...lets get the glaring stats out of the way...Pospisil is 0-10 on the tour on clay in the last two years. Do I care? Nope. 0-4 in 2016, does it matter? Nope. Is Berdych good? Nope. Should he win this comfortably? Yep. I just haven't been impressed with Berdych on clay at all. Same Berdbrain tactics he's used since he was 21 and results to show for it are zip.
Actually did get to watch his matches. Against Seppi he was 5-2 up in that tiebreak. Unfortunately lost. He played well, I thought. Like in his other losses. Good thing for us is he doesn't need to beat Berdych. Or even well, win a set.
That brings me to the line, 8...Should be higher with how poor Pospisil has been? no. Big server? Well so is Groth but he's gotten big lines against good players as well. Not sure how confidence or lack of the books are in Berdych but I think its 8 and not 9 for a reason. If both guys were in decent form it'd be ok but I'll take that line and look forward to seeing him cover.

ATP Roland Garros 2000, R128
Inigo Cervantes vs Dominic Thiem
Handicap: Inigo Cervantes +8.0 @ 2.07 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u plau

Big year for Thiem, few titles, few titles, few good draws in Masters and Slams. Slow starter at times? Definately. Hoping for the same thing here. Played a lot of matches in 2016 including the week before a Slam, but he doesn't seem to mind it.
Cervantes, prefers clay without a doubt. Isn't having a good 2016 as good as 2015 but that's ok. We don't need him to win, or to even win a set. But it'd be nice. If it wasn't against Thiem I wouldn't bother as It's my least confident out of the three but as much as Im a fan of Thiem Im never confident in him to get the job done the easiest way possible. As has been the case several times this year doing it the hard way against much inferior competition.

**fitguy67** · 05-25-16, 01:05 AM

last two days have been a wash: 2-2 (and 2 pushes as well, each day going 1-1-1 in fact)

123

102

+16.159

+5.897%

274.00

that's +16.159u which is 5.897% of the 274u risked
all pushes ignored

**Jeff_Black** · 05-25-16, 01:51 AM

I guess I got a bit lucky with Tipsarevic so I'll take the potential disaster with Cervantes if he doesn't hold at 0-5.

**Jeff_Black** · 05-25-16, 10:34 PM

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Mens Singles, R64
Bernard Tomic vs Borna Coric
Handicap: Bernard Tomic +6.0 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Despite a 0-4 record on the clay courts this year this line is worth looking at against a Coric who has had a good record on clay but has not really beaten anyone of note apart from Almagro who phoned it in. The Taylor Fritz win isn't ideally a big indicator of how good Coric has been and with the possibility of 4 sets or even 5 we'll take the points here.

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Mens Singles, R64
Malek Jaziri vs Tomas Berdych
Handicap: Malek Jaziri +9.0 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Malek Jaziri isn't as known for his clay court abilities as he is on hard courts but to give someone in better form a bigger line then Pospisil? Worthy of a look. Berdych made his win against Pospisil look comfortably but that wasn't before he was broken a few times as well by the Canadian. If Jaziri holds his own on the service side I think he could very well cover this large line.

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Mens Singles, R64
Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Marcos Baghdatis
Handicap: Marcos Baghdatis +7.0 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Neither player did it easy in their first round match and Baghdatis was pretty darn lucky to have won that match in three sets after being down 5-2 in the first set and 2-0 in the second set. He showed some fight and was able to break down Muller's serve. Tsonga didn't have it his all own way against Struff either and with these two hard hitters it's usually never a one sided match. Will take the points again despite Tsonga preferring the surface more.

**fitguy67** · 05-26-16, 12:21 PM

125

102

+17.986

+6.517%

**Jeff_Black** · 05-26-16, 10:51 PM

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Mens Singles, R32
Milos Raonic vs Andrej Martin
Handicap: Andrej Martin +9.0 @ 1.813 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Not a bad win over a slightly overrated Lucas Pouille by Martin here. To give a big line against Raonic who had a comfortable win against a meh Mannarino, fair enough but I think it's a bit too big. He's played a lot of matches on clay in 2016 and I don't mind him to cover it here.

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Mens Singles, R32
Ivo Karlovic vs Andy Murray
Handicap: Ivo Karlovic +6.5 @ 2.13 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Interesting tease here. The guy who is in form has played 2 five set matches so far going down 0-2 and 1-2 in sets but hasn't played a tiebreaker against the guy who has played 5 tiebreakers in 8 sets of tennis. If the over was 33.5 I would have been likely tempted to take that. Instead i'll hope Ivo holds his own on the serving end like he has been so far. Hopefully not another fade like Baghdatis even though it was fortunate to be a push.

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Mens Singles, R32
Nick Kyrgios vs Richard Gasquet
Handicap: Nick Kyrgios -1.5 @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Kyrgios looks incredibly motivated to do well here after making it to the third round last year only to run into Andy Murray. He looked good against Sijlsing and while Gasquet hasn't looked too bad himself either it is hard to back against the wild child in a major tournament. To make the fourth round and a chance at playing Kei Nishikori again I think he will want that opportunity and looking at him to win here against Gasquet and the crowd.

**Totolover1409** · 05-26-16, 10:58 PM

Good luck on Kyrgios -1.5. I'm on the opposite. I also have Kyrgios +6600 for the tournament which I'll be looking to hedge after a few more rounds

**Jeff_Black** · 05-26-16, 11:04 PM

As much as I hate fading him one day i'll have to learn to back him as he gets better. I'm almost amazed it is not closer to even money. But he has clearly shown he can compete with and beat the bigger names. So the odds probably show that.

One that really stood out to me and i'll probably regret is Simon @ 3s for -2.5 sets against Troicki. Who he's won 12 straight sets against in a 6-0 H2H. Bad matchup for some reason and he gets the better of him but obviously Simon's form probably doesn't warrant it.

**Totolover1409** · 05-27-16, 12:13 AM

BOL

**Jeff_Black** · 05-27-16, 12:35 AM

Likewise.
It's good to see the shitty threads die down as the number of spots left in the draw have decreased including the one of the guy who questioned my picks of backing players "who just showed up because they could." Despite the fact I proved it a plausible way of wagering in my previous Grand Slam threads and yet again here it has proven to be profitable while he isn't even hitting 25% of his picks

**Lightning** · 05-27-16, 01:05 AM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

Likewise.
It's good to see the shitty threads die down as the number of spots left in the draw have decreased including the one of the guy who questioned my picks of backing players "who just showed up because they could." Despite the fact I proved it a plausible way of wagering in my previous Grand Slam threads and yet again here it has proven to be profitable while he isn't even hitting 25% of his picks

I must admit, I laughed at that too. As much as it is a long term game, if you're going to be arrogant, you have no sympathy from me.

Anyway, good luck today Jeff! Also on Kyrgios ML and 3-0 at $5.8. Couldn't resist the value.

**fitguy67** · 05-29-16, 12:11 AM

126

104

+16.799

+6.021%

279

**Jeff_Black** · 05-29-16, 03:46 AM

He was probably the most disappointing out of the three, Ivo is understandaboe because he's an old man and has about two tricks up his sleeve, and was probably buggered from yesterday. Anyway today...

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Mens Singles, R16
Viktor Troicki vs Stan Wawrinka
Handica: Viktor Troicki +7.0 @ 2.000 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Viktor has been playing with heart in his tournament when he has gotten himself out of an expected first round loss to Dimitrov and has been rewarded with a fourth round showdown of the defending champ. The one thing that surprised me the most was his very comfortable win over bogeyman Gilles Simon. I don't mind the plus here as Stan has had a generous draw here so far apart from the slow start against Rosol. Even if he wins in three I see a potential tiebreaker.

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Mens Singles, R16
John Isner vs Andy Murray
Handicap: John Isner +6.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

potential inciming regret from fading Murray again but against a big serve with the potential of a tiebreak it's hard to resist. Definately don't see a lopsided set again and Isner has had more success on clay then Ivo so I'm hoping like in most of his slams he can drag it out and make life difficult for the top guys (Nadal, Federer and djokovic) like he usually likes to do.

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Mens Singles, R16
Milos Raonic vs Albert Ramos Vinoles
Total Score: Under 37.0 @ 1.961 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Been reasonably happy with Milos' form here in Paris despite the fact he's played a few chumps. I would be surprise to see Ramos push another five setter after yesterday but I'd rather back this then a handicap.

ATP Roland Garros, Mens Singles, R16
Kei Nishikori vs Richard Gasquet
Handicap: Kei Nishikori -4.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Hard not to be on the Kei bandwagon today, turned around a 0-6 h2h to 2-6 with them both being on clay, I don't think he will phone it in like kyrgios and he's only lost to djokovic and Nadal on clay.

**fitguy67** · 05-29-16, 03:37 PM

128

105

+17.750

+6.294%

282

**Jeff_Black** · 05-30-16, 04:27 AM

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Men's Singles, R16
Novak Djokovic vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Handicap: Roberto Bautista Agut +9.5 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Men's Singles, R16
Dominic Thiem vs Marcel Granollers
Handicap: Marcel Granollers +7.0 @ 2.05 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Men's Singles, R16
David Goffin vs Ernest's Gulbis
Handicap: Ernest's Gulbis +5.5 @ 1.84 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Men's Singles, R16
Tomas Berdych vs David Ferrer
Money line: Tomas Berdych @ 2.31 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**fitguy67** · 05-31-16, 09:25 AM

good news, along the lines of "finding money in pockets as you put them in the laundry"

in this case an extra 2.013 from your 3u on "Rafa twBarcelona@1.671" (p3#85), resulting in

129

105

+19.763

+6.934%

285

**Jeff_Black** · 05-31-16, 09:45 AM

Haha all good, I'm just glad we have some freakin tennis on tonight!
Not sure if I will play the QFs
will see how this weather goes first

**fitguy67** · 06-01-16, 02:58 PM

131

107

+19.990

+6.917%

289

**Jeff_Black** · 06-01-16, 10:09 PM

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Mens Singles, QF
Dominic Thiem vs David Goffin
Handicap: Dominic Thiem -3.0 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Roland Garros 2000, Mens Singles, SF
Stan Wawrinka vs Andy Murray
Moneyline: Stan Wawrinka @ 2.06 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

**Jeff_Black** · 06-01-16, 10:11 PM

Regarding Djokovic and berdych for anyone curious, I'm pretty inconclusive about it. Part of me thinks Djokovic will want to make it as easy as possible and win 3-0, but part of me also likes that big line for Berdych with the potential of him getting a set. So best leave it.