2016 Clay Court Season inc French Open Picks

[Don_Omarion]

and we both lost on Federer

[Don_Omarion]

even federer did not win for himself !! lol man can not believe I was sure that he will win in straights

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah it's unfortunate but maybe we are expecting too much from him in his first tournament back!

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, SF
Rafael Nadal vs Andy Murray
Set Betting: Rafael Nadal -1.5 sets @ 2.18 on Pinnacle
Stake 1u play

Got burned by Federer 2-0 but again taking the extra juice with the 8x winner and his only active victor here is out of the tournament and hope for a better result

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, SF
Gasl Monfils vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
Moneyline: Gael Monfils @ 1.826 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[fitguy67]

up to end of previous page's action (ie. NOT including the last two plays posted directly above that haven't started yet)

88

72

+13.824

+6.947%

199.00

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000, Final
Rafael Nadal vs Gael Monfils
Handicap: Gael Monfils +4.5 @ 1.775 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[fitguy67]

damn that was the worst beat...

and simultaneously the best lesson on the head/heart/gas-tank of monfece

[Jeff_Black]

The funny thing is I was discussing it with a friend and he said he liked overs which was 21.5 and I said I liked the +4.5 just in case it goes 6-4, 6-4 or something
Just picked the wrong one in this instance
But as much hope as I have Monfils I didn't think he'd drop a set 0-6

[jtoler]

The funny thing is I was discussing it with a friend and he said he liked overs which was 21.5 and I said I liked the +4.5 just in case it goes 6-4, 6-4 or something
Just picked the wrong one in this instance
But as much hope as I have Monfils I didn't think he'd drop a set 0-6

He's always sucking wind out there and its always worse on clay for good reason, points too long against someone like Rafa if youre trying to win points.

[Jeff_Black]

He's always sucking wind out there and its always worse on clay for good reason, points too long against someone like Rafa if youre trying to win points.

Even after working with Rasheed it seemed his fitness struggled but I guess that's the risk you take with Monfils considering he was killing it before.

Anyway new week now and after a short break its time to get back into the swing of things

ATP Barcelona 500, R1
Rajeev Ram vs Mikhail Youhzny
Handicap: Rajeev Ram +5.0 @ 1.80 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[fitguy67]

including all action except that in post directly above, which hasn't started yet

90

73

+14.425

+7.141%

202.00

[Jeff_Black]

Out of curiosity is anyone else doing alright in tennis capping that posts here from time to time this year?

[fitguy67]

check out http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/tennis-betting/

one of reg's here (posting at the very top of this page in fact) Don Omarion is running his own thread...

i've followed Snowball in the past, a multi-sport guy but seems he's back at the tennis again

[Jeff_Black]

Ah yes, I see. I look around from time to time but it seems people tend to pop in an out after weeks of out of action. I was similar last year but this year I'm trying to be a consistent weekly capper for the tennis.

ATP Barcelona 500: Futures/Outrights
To Win The Tournament: Rafael Nadal @ 1.671 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

Outrights can always get messy but then after looking at the rankings and seeing how many points he had to defend I think Nadal will make a serious push to win this tournament to get his points back up and claim that 4th seeded spot so he doesn't have to play a top guy until the Semi Finals. Plus he has shown while shaky in form he can grind out and win the tough matches and I think it'll serve him well here.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Barcelona 500, R32
Phillipp Kohlschreiber vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Handicap: Phillipp Kohlscrieber -3.0 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Barcelona 500, R32
Ivan Dodig vs Feliciano Lopez
Total Score: Over 23.0 @ 1.917 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Bucharest, R16
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Kyle Edmund
Set Handicap: Guillermo Garcia Lopez -1.5 sets @ 2.44 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[FoxMulder]

Edmund likes change-ups and hitting crosscourt inside-outs a lot.. he will hit flat, right on to Garcia-Lopez's weak single handed backhand... No way GGL can win in straight sets, that is if he wins at all. Considering Edmund is not that great at his return game and BP conversion, over is more likely

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah that's my main worried though I know without a doubt Garcia Lopez is the better player on this surface by somewhat of a margin out of the two even if he has started a bit slower.
Don't feel the line is worth it as if he wins in three I don't think he will cover it so I've taken the extra juice with the set betting. If he was in better form the odds would be lower.
That and as you said Edmund has some glaring flaws and I don't really rate him as much as other Brits.

[Jeff_Black]

Bit of rain in Bucharest which has halted play, might sit out that one if it persists

ATP Barcelona 500, R16
Jeremy Chardy vs Kei Nishikori
Handicap: Jeremy Chardy +4.5 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Barcelona 500, R16
Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Feliciano Lopez
Total Score: Over 22.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

Good week so far apart from the bad read on Ram, lets keep it up...

ATP Barcelona 500, QF
Benoit Paire vs Malek Jaziri
Set Handicap: Benoit Paire -1.5 sets @ 1.714 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

ATP Barcelona 500, QF
Phillipp Kohlscrieber vs Andrey Kuznetsov
Handicap: Phillipp Kohlscriebe -2.5 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[fitguy67]

update of all Jeff_Black's 2016 tennis-thread plays (pushes ignored) to end of post#90 above

93

75

+15.865

+7.664%

207.00

[Semper Fidelis]

Hey there Jeff, just dropping in real quick to give you props my friend - you're doing a hell of a job here steadily crunching out profits, and your work is very much appreciated! Thanks for all you do every day to contribute to this forum buddy!

And to you Fitguy, my fellow statistician extraordinaire, thanks for what you do and contribute here as well - we know how significant (not to mention amazing) that ROI% in its representation of Jeff's overall consistent performance!

Here's to perpetuating that crazy fun journey known as sports investing and stealing more profits from the books together! To continued success the rest of this tennis season!!!

[Jeff_Black]

Good to see you around too man, has been a while since the umm US Open I think? Haha
Hopefully I can just keep being consistent and it's only freakin April lol.
Will keep doing my thing and thanks for the support again!

[Conqueror]

Jeff,

Any idea why Haase is such a huge dog (+215) against Verdasco?

[Jeff_Black]

No idea but I don't really rate him on clay, guess Verdasco has shown some results.

[Conqueror]

No idea but I don't really rate him on clay, guess Verdasco has shown some results.

He's 3-1 against Verdasco including 1-0 on clay and has never been an underdog of that much in the series. That's why I was wondering.
Thanks for the response.

[Jeff_Black]

No worries
Just not a match id touch in my opinion

[Conqueror]

Paire actually lost the first set? Give me a break!

[Jeff_Black]

Up a break then loses five straight games. Think I'll stick to taking him as a dog from now on hah
I should know better but!

[fitguy67]

94

76

+15.774

+7.547%

209.00

[posey_mvp]

any bets for tomorrow Jeff? I'm leaning Nadal -5.5?

[Jeff_Black]

I actually want to take both dog lines haha, I know Nadal is a bit green but so is Kolscrieber, I think he has been pretty good in this tournament and his serve. My concern with Nadal is that he has had it pretty easy so far apart from a tough set against Fognini, last two guys struggling on their second serve, something with Kohlscrieber has excelled at so far. Think it'll be a tighter matchup then the odds indicate IMO of course

as for Paire, I will either regret not getting on him if he covers or I will re-regret getting on him as a dog if he wins so I might as well go for it again. Few days ago a friend andI discussed this possible matchup saying it would be a good spot to get on Paire to take down the defending champ. Kei was one point away from losing the first set which was the letdown for Dog losing the second set poorly.

[Jeff_Black]

So with that said lets hope the contrarian view pays off

ATP Barcelona 500, SF
Rafael Nadal vs Phillipp Kohlscrieber
Handicap: Philipp Kohlscrieber +5.5 @ 1.769 on Pinnacle
Stake 1u play

ATP Barcelona 500, SF
Kei Nishikori vs Benoit Paire
Handicap: Benoit Paire +5 @ 1.793 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Bucharest 250, SF
Federico Delbonis vs Lucas Pouille
Handicap: Federico Delbonis -3.0 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play