Honeybadger's picks

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  • Hardcoar
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-17-13
    • 15606

    #176
    Yeah it's certainly a start but then it should be even lower because the factual market value of their product is much lower than that of the men. Why subsidize bitches?
    Comment
    • Honeybadger44
      SBR MVP
      • 01-03-14
      • 1675

      #177
      Townsend/Suarez Navarro over 20 @1.84 Pinnacle - 2 units
      After eliminating Cornet, opponents will get more aware of the danger, which Townsend can produce, with her heavy hitting. But, considering how unconvincing was CSN, against oppents like Beygelzimer and Basczinsky in first two rounds, I think she is not in great form at the moment and Townsend can push this one into over.

      Berdych -4 @1.99 Pinnacle - 2 units
      People are all over Bautista, probably because of the positive record, which he ahs against Berdych. But I still feel like this line is too low. Berdych is a top caliber player and has every chance to cover this line in best of 5 match.

      Schmiedlova +4,5 @1.93 Pinnacle - 2 units
      Always like to fade a young player, after a big, emotional win. After such a great win, I don't believe that Muguruza's focus is at 100% for this match. Schmiedlova could take adventage of that.

      Isner +3 @1.96 Pinnacle - 2 units
      I don't think that Roberedo likes to play against big servers. He can only work his clay court magic, if he can draw his opponents into long exchange rallies. That is very difficult to do against Isner. Possible 5 setter.

      Granollers +5 @1.87 Pinnacle - 2 units
      I don't see Klizan as such a big favorite. After that huge win against Nishikori, he played 5 setter against Haase and showed that he is not in that incredible form after all. Granollers is very tricky player to play against on clay and I see this one much closer, then line is suggesting.

      Kerber -4,5 @1.85 Pinnacle - 3 units
      Hantuchova is all about her shot making abilities. In such heavy and slow conditions, it is really difficult to beat player like Kerber, just with that. Angelique will get majority of the shots back in play and she should dominate the rallies.
      Comment
      • Hardcoar
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-17-13
        • 15606

        #178
        Yeah the spread really doesn't make sense in proportion to the ML.
        Comment
        • Dmoneytx
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-09-12
          • 6450

          #179
          What's up HB?? My man, good shit you throw out there bud. Thank you

          I couldn't agree with any of the women stuff, it's just hard for me to trust the women, but the Isner play was spot on!!

          I agreed with the Berdych as well, spot on!! Sweating out the Granollers now, but he got the break in the second set early, VAMOS!!

          Got a little something also on the Kerber ML to round out a +850 parlay, lol!! Had Cilic +8.5, Over Isner, Granollers +4.5, Kerber ML, wish me luck buddy

          I hope all is well, just wanted to drop in to say thanks for the help & keep up the good work!!!
          Comment
          • Honeybadger44
            SBR MVP
            • 01-03-14
            • 1675

            #180
            Hey, Money! I am glad you decided to stop by

            I struggled quite a bit in past couple of weeks. Didn't have a great start of RG. But, I had a nice one today. I am really happy that you managed to make some money with those picks. That parlay looks amazing. You only need couple more games from our guy Granollers tommorow, and you can start counting the money. Really nice job
            Comment
            • Hardcoar
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 02-17-13
              • 15606

              #181
              Honey you lucky piece of shit!


              Good work though!
              Comment
              • Honeybadger44
                SBR MVP
                • 01-03-14
                • 1675

                #182
                Originally posted by Hardcoar
                Honey you lucky piece of shit!

                Haha. Why? Because of Kerber?
                Comment
                • Hardcoar
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-17-13
                  • 15606

                  #183
                  Yeah just the Kerber... I actually think you were unlucky not to win the over on Townsend.

                  It's interesting how much of an edge Berdych has on the clay over B-A which the market doesn't seem to realize. B-A actually played really well today, in my opinion. Few players will have lost thus far playing as well as he did today.
                  Comment
                  • Honeybadger44
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-03-14
                    • 1675

                    #184
                    Originally posted by Hardcoar
                    Yeah just the Kerber... I actually think you were unlucky not to win the over on Townsend.
                    Did you saw that stupid decision by an umpire in second set, against Hantuchova? That was mean. She ended up winning that game though...

                    Yeah, I also think that Townsend was much closer then score is showing. That easy shot at the net, at break point, for goign 3-1 up in second set was crucial. She missed that one, failed to convert another 2 break chances and then just lost focus after that...
                    Comment
                    • Hardcoar
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 02-17-13
                      • 15606

                      #185
                      Yeah that was disgusting. Overall you were in essence correct in your assessment, but like I said in my thread earlier Kerber was too much of an unknown to me.
                      Comment
                      • Honeybadger44
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-03-14
                        • 1675

                        #186
                        And speaking of Bautista, you are completely right. I think he is closer to Berdych on faster surfaces, then on clay, while the market sets the odds other way around, probably just because Bautista is spaniard and everybody assumes that is his favorite surface. He is more of a counter-puncher/defnder for me, which feeds of the pace, which opponent puts on the ball + he is a good mover. Also plays much flater then other spanish players. Pretty good combination for hard surface...
                        Comment
                        • Dmoneytx
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 02-09-12
                          • 6450

                          #187
                          Originally posted by Honeybadger44
                          Hey, Money! I am glad you decided to stop by

                          I struggled quite a bit in past couple of weeks. Didn't have a great start of RG. But, I had a nice one today. I am really happy that you managed to make some money with those picks. That parlay looks amazing. You only need couple more games from our guy Granollers tommorow, and you can start counting the money. Really nice job
                          Thanks HB.. Granollers winning that second set 6-2 was HUGE for us!!! I got the +4.5 at +104 which is why my parlay shot up in odds. I said screw it, I can't wait till tomm!!!! Looking forward to see if you have anything for tomm, thanks again HB
                          Comment
                          • frugalgambler
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-30-13
                            • 3418

                            #188
                            I had Berdych too (-1.5 sets) so I am glad he won, but is it me or did he look pretty shaky today ? He was trying to choke hard in the 3rd and 4th sets. Or did RBA play that good ?
                            Comment
                            • Honeybadger44
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-03-14
                              • 1675

                              #189
                              I watched only halfway through 2nd set, so I can't really make a comment on that one. But above, Hardcoar said that RBA played well. And also, from what I saw, he didn't do much wrong in first two sets, despite loosing them ugly, on scoreboard.
                              Comment
                              • Hardcoar
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 02-17-13
                                • 15606

                                #190
                                I didn't see the entire match, so he may well have been inconsistent, but there wasn't much in terms of mistakes from either player for the odd two sets I did watch in total.
                                Comment
                                • frugalgambler
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-30-13
                                  • 3418

                                  #191
                                  Hah, I watched only the 4th set and a bit of the 3rd. Berdych looked really shaky at times. Tail of two halves. I was pretty sure I was losing that bet since Berdych appeared to be on the verge of doing one of his patented choke-jobs.
                                  Comment
                                  • Honeybadger44
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-03-14
                                    • 1675

                                    #192
                                    Ivanovic -4,5 @2.05 Pinnacle - 2 units
                                    I just cannot see, how will Safarova challenge Ivanovic in this match. In past, I would be worried, about backing Ana, against lefty, but her backhand is so improved this season, that I have no worries about it. Before, her forehand was a big weapon, but as soon as opponent found way to play around it, she was doomed. Now her game is much more acomplished, with her serve being consistant as ever and her backhand working really nicely. Safarova is not a great clay courter. She relys on her hitting, but I thnk that Ana will overpower her in that area and once she will find herself in defensive position, she will have huge problems, because she is not very skillful defender.
                                    Comment
                                    • Hardcoar
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 02-17-13
                                      • 15606

                                      #193
                                      wta! Wta! Wta!
                                      Comment
                                      • Honeybadger44
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-03-14
                                        • 1675

                                        #194
                                        Ana getting hammered because she is playing stupid tennis. Instead of going to Safarova's backhand everytime, when she has the opportunity, she plays to opponent strenght... Unreal.
                                        Comment
                                        • Dmoneytx
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 02-09-12
                                          • 6450

                                          #195
                                          Originally posted by Honeybadger44
                                          Ana getting hammered because she is playing stupid tennis. Instead of going to Safarova's backhand everytime, when she has the opportunity, she plays to opponent strenght... Unreal.
                                          I was thinking the exact same thing. Why on earth does she keep playing to the Saf forehand so much??? Wta is tough HB, hope she comes back for you..
                                          Comment
                                          • Hardcoar
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 02-17-13
                                            • 15606

                                            #196
                                            These bitches are f*cking insane...
                                            Comment
                                            • Honeybadger44
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-03-14
                                              • 1675

                                              #197
                                              Most of the forum memebers here, doesn't like WTA at all. I actually find it more profitable then ATP. But yeah, you can lose quite a lot of nerves, watching these matches...
                                              Comment
                                              • Dmoneytx
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 02-09-12
                                                • 6450

                                                #198
                                                Case and point... Kvitova was serving for the match at 5-4 in the third, gets broken, of course -- lol!!!

                                                WTA is so sketchy HB... I think Kvit was -450 live, now +250 in just 5 mins, hilarious
                                                Comment
                                                • Dmoneytx
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 02-09-12
                                                  • 6450

                                                  #199
                                                  This match is funny to watch HB... Kvitova serving AGAIN for the match at 7-6 gets broken, of course -- lol!!!

                                                  Again she goes from -450 to +250 to -400 to +150 range, it's hilarious
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Dmoneytx
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 02-09-12
                                                    • 6450

                                                    #200
                                                    Sorry HB, women's tennis is just hard to watch. You either have to laugh at most of the matches IMO or it will give you ulcers if you bet on these chicks for real. They are SO unstable it is not even funny. Kvitova had EVERY chance to win, completely choked over and over and over...

                                                    I think she had 65 errors??? Wow, that is beyond bad & she still had every chance to win. Just like Ivanovic going out and playing gross, stupid tennis. Same shit, different match, usual crappy result. I hope you get it back bro, BOL!!!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Honeybadger44
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-03-14
                                                      • 1675

                                                      #201
                                                      As I said. Good money can be made, betting WTA. Of course, you have to handicap it differently then ATP, almost like it is a different sport, but it can be done. But as you mentioned, sometimes when you watch these matches, it can get crazy. But you get used to it eventually.

                                                      That Ivanovic's loss was painful. I had a nice looking future wager with her and she had a great shot to win it, especially with many top seeded players got eliminated in early rounds. But hey, loosing is pretty much unavoidable part of betting. It is important to keep it cool and bounce back as soon as possible. I had a rough week or two, but I know I will get it back. If not sooner, then during the grass season. I usually always had nice success in that period.

                                                      Speaking about Kvitova match, yeah I saw most of it. That is a big number of UE. But when you see that it was 3+ hours long match, where she had to try and shorten up the points, because she had no chance competeing with Kuz in long rallies, especially with that thigh injury, you can understand why there was so many.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Hardcoar
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 02-17-13
                                                        • 15606

                                                        #202
                                                        I don't know if it's that different. You may just not want to be watching the matches, that's all.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Honeybadger44
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-03-14
                                                          • 1675

                                                          #203
                                                          I might exaggerate a bit, I admit. But if you don't watch the maches, then you don't have enough valuable informations about the players, which you need when doing a proper analysis...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Hardcoar
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 02-17-13
                                                            • 15606

                                                            #204
                                                            Also, since I love you so much HB, I'm gonna fill you in:

                                                            Sam Querrey loses a tennis match. You lose a bad bet. You lose your mind watching these bitches perform so pathetically. Note the context of loss.

                                                            Sam Querrey is a loose cannon (and a loser, because he loses). You loosen yourself up. You tighten a loose knot. Note the context of looseness (I.E something being loose).

                                                            No matter how badly the pronunciation makes you want to use two o:s, just please, for the love of f*ck don't... unless something is actually loose!

                                                            Americans everywhere take heed!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Hardcoar
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 02-17-13
                                                              • 15606

                                                              #205
                                                              Originally posted by Honeybadger44
                                                              I might exaggerate a bit, I admit. But if you don't watch the maches, then you don't have enough valuable informations about the players, which you need when doing a proper analysis...
                                                              No I agree. I mean watching the ones you do have money on.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Honeybadger44
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-03-14
                                                                • 1675

                                                                #206
                                                                Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                                                Also, since I love you so much HB, I'm gonna fill you in:

                                                                Sam Querrey loses a tennis match. You lose a bad bet. You lose your mind watching these bitches perform so pathetically. Note the context of loss.

                                                                Sam Querrey is a loose cannon (and a loser, because he loses). You loosen yourself up. You tighten a loose knot. Note the context of looseness (I.E something being loose).

                                                                No matter how badly the pronunciation makes you want to use two o:s, just please, for the love of f*ck don't... unless something is actually loose!

                                                                Americans everywhere take heed!
                                                                Sorry about that. Belive it or not, I acctualy understand the difference between those two words, but I don't know why I make that mistake that often in my posts. There are probably a lot more of those in my writing. I flunked my 3rd grade English class, after all

                                                                But thanks for pointing that one out. I will try not to repeat it that often
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Honeybadger44
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-03-14
                                                                  • 1675

                                                                  #207
                                                                  Verdasco/Murray under 42,5 @1.86 Pinnacle 2/10
                                                                  This line has gone too high and is offering us some nice value on the under, imho. I think that people are liking the over so much, because Murray has not impressed so far. Still, these top players can mostly raise the level of their game, when crunch time begins (second week of Grand slam tournament), while Verdasco hasn't showed anything special in my oppinion. He struggled against Cuevas and eliminated not completely recovered Gasquet.

                                                                  Garcia-Lopez ML @2.52 Pinnacle 5/10
                                                                  Slightly higher stake, because I believe there is a lot of value here. I think that the odds should be much closer to evens. Yes, Monfils is the last frenchman standing. Yes, he will get a lot of support from the crowd. Yes, he will be fired up. But, the dude is injured. I believe it is an ankle injury and for him, that is a big blow, because he relys heavily on his movement and defensive skills. Also, level of his game in previous match, was far far below his best. Even though he got past Fognini.

                                                                  Kuznetsova ML @1.74 Pinnacle - 4/10
                                                                  As I wrote in another thread, I think that Kuznetsova should be bigger favorite here. Ivanovic helped Safarova to look better then she really is, in previous round, while I expect Kuznetsova to be in full control from start to finish.

                                                                  Crnokosa @19 WilliamHill - 1/10
                                                                  This is international basketball game. Serbian league to be precise. Crnokosa is huge underdog, but I think that at these odds, they are worth of a shot. Crvena zvezda has much more quality roster, but they are in big crisis at the moment, loosing 3 games in a row. Last one was just 2 days ago against arch rival Partizan, after OT. Coach Radonjic is not the best, when it comes to adjustments and lifting his team out of the crisis. I've seen this before. Big problem for home side, will be stopping 222cm tall center - Boban Marjanovic, but zone defense could do the trick, especially if visitors fail to score from perimeter. Area where they often have problems.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • zec
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 01-03-14
                                                                    • 548

                                                                    #208
                                                                    BOL to you; I understand 1 unit play but Crnokosa is really, really poor. I am expecting Zvezda to cruise here with the talent they have.. Regardless, it would be cool if you won it
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Honeybadger44
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-03-14
                                                                      • 1675

                                                                      #209
                                                                      Originally posted by zec
                                                                      BOL to you; I understand 1 unit play but Crnokosa is really, really poor. I am expecting Zvezda to cruise here with the talent they have.. Regardless, it would be cool if you won it
                                                                      I am fully aware of the talent diffrence. Especially in the paint, where these teams, which didn't play Adriatic league, doesnt have enough quality in frontcourt. That is why I wrote that it will be hard to stop Marjanovic. But, if you remember last season. Zvezda started to crumble pretty much in the same period and coach Radonjic looked lost, like he is right now. Nelson and Katic out of form. Nobody, who could feed Maranovic with asissts. Nobody at small forward. Radenovic exhausted because of all the injuries he had in this season... Lots of problems. Of course, this bet is still a longshot, but I figured it is worth of a try. Good luck to you as well!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Honeybadger44
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 01-03-14
                                                                        • 1675

                                                                        #210
                                                                        Serbia +2 (AH) @1.82 Pinnacle - 5 units
                                                                        Serbia +0,5 @4.40 Bet365 - 2 units
                                                                        Serbia to win @16 Pinnacle - 1 unit
                                                                        Yep, there is a lot of units, riding on this one, but I truly believe that there is quite some value here. I am talking about friendly football game, between Brazil and Serbia. It is less then a week from start of the World cup, which Brazil is hosting and will play an opening game against Croatia. Serbia didn't managed to qualify for it, but that was not because of the lack of quality, but because coach Mihajlovic missmanaged the team, where many best players, didn't get the proper opportunity. Especially Matic and Tadic, who are know carrying this team on their back in midfield, with Mihajlovic gone.
                                                                        Brazil is of course one of the favorites to win the Wc on their home soil. But, imagine that you are one of the players. There is 6 days left until the opening game. Would you jump with your head first, on every single loose ball, risking the injury? I don't think so. That will definitely be in the back of the mind, for every brasilian player. While on the other side, this game is world cup, for Serbian team. They will be extremly motivated to show that despite not playing in this competition, they are one of the best teams in the world as well. I believe that they might be the best team, out of those, who didn't make it to the World cup.
                                                                        Comment
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