Honeybadger's picks

Honeybadger44 · 06-11-14, 08:04 AM

Originally posted by Semper Fidelis

Hey there HB, thanks as always for your insight with everything here! Would you consider it almost safe, or at least inherent value, in taking Mega Vizura on the ML? Feeling kinda risky today! Lol

Yeah, there definitely value there, as well. I kinda took the spread, only because I am actually huge fan of Crvena zvezda and would like to see them in the finals as soon as possible

. So I am hoping for ideal scenario and Zvezda winning by 1-5 point margin. But as I said, value is definitely on Mega's side. Spread and ML. Good luck!

zec · 06-11-14, 08:09 AM

HB, do you expect any player to have above or below avg scoring game? I am looking to bet the points over/under. They are set at around their averages I believe, Nelson 12.5, Jenkins 10.5, Marjanovic 10.5, Katic 9.5 etc. They have mega players as well. Thanks!

Honeybadger44 · 06-11-14, 08:15 AM

Originally posted by zec

HB, do you expect any player to have above or below avg scoring game? I am looking to bet the points over/under. They are set at around their averages I believe, Nelson 12.5, Jenkins 10.5, Marjanovic 10.5, Katic 9.5 etc. thanks!

Mega is going to play zone, throughout entire game, like they did in game 1. That defense of course doesn't allow that many drives to the basket and leaves more space for outside shoots. Zvezda made quite a lot of threes last game and Jenkins being most consistant from the perimeter + Zvezda's go to guy, in cruch time, I would look at him for over. Also, this is bit high line for Nelson imho. He is far from a good shooter, but then again, he gets most of his points out of transition. Under might be worth of a look for him, but I am not that sure.
Also Marjanovic is huge weapon potentialy, but coach Radonjic doesn't now how to use him. He is very conservative and usualy gives him very little playing time, when opponent uses centers, which can shoot from the outside. Also, Mega with their zone defense, will double team him, every time he gets the ball... Also possible under.

zec · 06-11-14, 03:18 PM

Tough loss but that's why those small lines are dangerous when you are fouling the opposition and they are making free throws in the end. I'm guessing that's what happened based on the score line. I didn't watch the game but I thought Marjanovic went over for sure with Zvezda scoring 101 but he scored only 6. But wait for this, I misread your comments, I always get confused with Jenkins and Nelson, can't remember which is which so I played Nelson over and he went way over Bc I thought you were saying that he would go over but now I see you were saying over for Jenkins. Anyways got lucky on Nelson and hit Marjanovic. Good to be lucky when I miss spread by a point on a different ticket..

hendrafirmanto · 06-11-14, 09:54 PM

nice hits on tennis mate, waiting for your next picks, awesome insight on grass.

Honeybadger44 · 06-12-14, 01:21 AM

Originally posted by zec

Tough loss but that's why those small lines are dangerous when you are fouling the opposition and they are making free throws in the end. I'm guessing that's what happened based on the score line. I didn't watch the game but I thought Marjanovic went over for sure with Zvezda scoring 101 but he scored only 6. But wait for this, I misread your comments, I always get confused with Jenkins and Nelson, can't remember which is which so I played Nelson over and he went way over Bc I thought you were saying that he would go over but now I see you were saying over for Jenkins. Anyways got lucky on Nelson and hit Marjanovic. Good to be lucky when I miss spread by a point on a different ticket..

Yeah, It hurts when you lose like this. Mega was down by 4, when they started to foul. I knew immidietly then, that I will most likely lose the bet, so that is not the main reason, why I was upset. I think that I actually had a strong bet here. Mega was right there with Zvezda, throughout entire game. At one point, they were even up by 9.
I am glad to hear that you had a nice success with player props. Jenkins was hot from outside, and covered the line in the first half already. Marjanovic had limited playing time, as I predicted and stayed under. Nelson was the one, which I was not sure about. He went over, but that was mostly in 4th quarter, when he hit a three and most of the fouls in the last minute, were on him... I am glad that you won with him!

Originally posted by hendrafirmanto

nice hits on tennis mate, waiting for your next picks, awesome insight on grass.

Thanks man!

Honeybadger44 · 06-12-14, 03:59 AM

Zahlavova Strycova ML @1.79 Pinnacle - 2 units
Babos somehow smuggled through to the third round, as a lucky looser. She caught Erakovic little bit off guard, because Marina didn't knew that she is going to play her, while Keys probably had one of her meltdowns, judging from looking at the scoreline. It will be very difficult to beat Zahlavova-Strycova, which is a tricky player to play against on grass. She serves well, uses the slices and attacks the net often. Her tactical approach is very good and I think Babos will struggle to find anwsers.

Riske +2,5 @1.85 Pinnacle - 2 units
Stephens did "murder" Schiavone yesterday, but Francesca also made it easy for her, in many ways. For example, playing to Sloane's forehand, with so much air under the ball, is not the way you should play against Stephens, because she is going to hammer those forehand winners, all day long. Riske for me, is better player on grass. She does not have that much power, but doesn't make many mistakes, with any of her shots. He place them well and keep the bounce low. It will be more difficult to hit winners for Stephens, today. But I am sure, she is going to try anyway. And probably make quite some unforced errors.

Honeybadger44 · 06-12-14, 05:05 AM

De Schepper +3 @1.80 Pinnacle - 3 units
De Schepper ML @3.21 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Not sure about Feliciano. Saw both of his matches so far, on this tournament. He took out easily Hewitt yesterday, but 1st serve was bailing him out, every time he found himself in trouble. His volleying was not spot on, so far, while his passing shots are inconstistant. That part of the game will be extremly important against the French, who shortens the point as much as he can, crashing to the net at every opportunity.

Kimiko Date-Krumm @3.39 Pinnacle - 1 unit
I was on Daniela, against Bencic, because of her grass court experiance. But which active player on the tour can say that it has more experiance then Date Krumm? Nobody. 43- year old super granny is still keeping up with the girls, which are half her age, especially on faster courts. She is very good on grass and if she can expose Hantuchova's poor movement, she can win. Taking the ball on the rise, hitting it flat, using the slice, etc. could do the trick.

Lu ML @3.64 Pinnacle - 2 units
Admit it, you think I am crazy. Going against Ivo, on grass, in current form. It seems like a mission impossible. Still, I think Karlovic is overvalued here. Lu has proven so many times that he can play some great tennis on grass. Ivo is usually only 1 break away, from loosing focus completely and going down in flames. If Lu steals one early, he can win.

Flipkens -2,5 @1.88 Pinnacle - 3 units
Not going to overthing this one. Flipkens looks very comfortable on grass. Serving well, using backhand slices properly and being very consistant at the net. Wozniak got thourgh to 3rd round with some good ball striking, but I think she will not be allowed to play her own game here.

Hardcoar · 06-12-14, 05:20 AM

I wonder how Babylon creamed Keys yesterday... lol.

Honeybadger44 · 06-12-14, 05:45 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

I wonder how Babylon creamed Keys yesterday... lol.

I think that match was not televised, so I didn't see it. But as I wrote above, it is almost impossible that her talent had to do something with it. Most likely it was Keys' meltdown.

Pride · 06-12-14, 05:59 AM

strycova is finished

Hardcoar · 06-12-14, 05:59 AM

BZS meltdown official.

Pride · 06-12-14, 06:08 AM

it just goes to show how pitiful the wta talent pool is when psychos can be pros

fitguy67 · 06-12-14, 06:24 AM

Babos, being the lucky lOser...couldn't hold onto both of the 2 "O"s she had when the qualis began...because they were too lOOse...

i'm with you on deSchepper and BZStrykova...
hope they manage to hang on to both of their O's, otherwise they lOse...

__________
great posts, all the time from you HB...your writing in English, you non monther tongue, is outstanding...just thought i'd help with that one confusing set of homonyms (words with the same sound but different meaning/usage and usually--but not always--different spelling, too, as in this case)...i remember HC posting a short time ago about the same thng...

just remember about lOsing one of the 2 O's you had because they were lOOse

Hardcoar · 06-12-14, 06:35 AM

It's the hooker vs the psychopath.

fitguy67 · 06-12-14, 06:49 AM

Originally posted by Pride

strycova is finished

what...they're still playing...WTF?

guess the directors at the Birmingham tournament aren't employing the new rule...you know, the one that says "you stop the match and declare a winner as soon as it gets obvious who it is going to be"...

Pride · 06-12-14, 06:51 AM

thank god big bertha is shit lol

Honeybadger44 · 06-12-14, 06:57 AM

Originally posted by fitguy67

Babos, being the lucky lOser...couldn't hold onto both of the 2 "O"s she had when the qualis began...because they were too lOOse...

i'm with you on deSchepper and BZStrykova...
hope they manage to hang on to both of their O's, otherwise they lOse...

__________
great posts, all the time from you HB...your writing in English, you non monther tongue, is outstanding...just thought i'd help with that one confusing set of homonyms (words with the same sound but different meaning/usage and usually--but not always--different spelling, too, as in this case)...i remember HC posting a short time ago about the same thng...

just remember about lOsing one of the 2 O's you had because they were lOOse

Thanks, fitguy67! As you said, English is not my mother tongue. So, mistakes creep into my posts. Especially when I write fast and being too lazy to go back and check for errors.

There are many mistakes in my posts, because my English is far from perfect. I don't mind at all, when someone points them out, because I am always looking to improve it.

Cheers!

Hardcoar · 06-12-14, 08:22 AM

You are like a mirror image of me at the moment Badger-boy. Well deserved luck though. Congrat's and keep it up!

Bet10Heinekens · 06-12-14, 08:27 AM

Thanks for the Date-Krumm play Badger

71363003-1 6/12/2014 4:27AM Money Line Tennis - 8614 K. Date Krumm +245 for Game

love the way you give insights for your plays

zec · 06-12-14, 09:14 AM

Unbelievable day man, keep it up!!

Honeybadger44 · 06-12-14, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

You are like a mirror image of me at the moment Badger-boy. Well deserved luck though. Congrat's and keep it up!

Yup, doing well at the moment. I am sorry to hear that you are not doing that well at the moment, but I have full faith, that you will turn it around very soon. You have more then enough knowledge, to get back on winning path.

Originally posted by Bet10Heinekens

Thanks for the Date-Krumm play Badger

71363003-1 6/12/2014 4:27AM Money Line Tennis - 8614 K. Date Krumm +245 for Game

love the way you give insights for your plays

No problem, man! I am really glad that you tailed it

Originally posted by zec

Unbelievable day man, keep it up!!

Thanks, bro!

NYRin09 · 06-12-14, 09:25 AM

hey badger, any thoughts on dellacqua?

Honeybadger44 · 06-12-14, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by NYRin09

hey badger, any thoughts on dellacqua?

Maybe a slight slight lean toward her, or the over, if I would be forced to choose something. I am not placing bet on it, because the line seems pretty spot on.

Hardcoar · 06-12-14, 10:09 AM

Coco taking a dive. I'm liking Dellacqua @ 3.2 by the way.

Honeybadger44 · 06-12-14, 10:16 AM

Great day for tennis so far. Why not spoil it with a football bet?

Brazil-Croatia draw @5.64 Pinnacle - 1 unit
Opening game of the FIFA World cup 2014. Brazil is a huge favorite, but I am not impressed with the way they are playing. Their midfield is probably the worst in last 20 years (at least). Most of people will say that home field is adventage for them. Not so fast. They will be under enormous pressure and crowd might even turn on them, if they fail to get into the lead, during the first half.
Croatia has nothing to lose. They are fired up and have a very good team. At these odds, draw is a must try.

Hardcoar · 06-12-14, 12:40 PM

You are being bailed-out big time today my friend. Big congrat's again!

Honeybadger44 · 06-12-14, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

You are being bailed-out big time today my friend. Big congrat's again!

Thanks!

It was a profitable day, but I am not feeling that great right now. Flipkens managed to ruin my @650 odds parlay...

Hardcoar · 06-12-14, 12:51 PM

King Konga playing against a limp and he's still down a break.

Edit:

Make that a break and double BP.

frugalgambler · 06-12-14, 01:05 PM

A little too ambitious on Croatia I think. I like Croats +1.5 better and draw 1H.

Honeybadger44 · 06-12-14, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

A little too ambitious on Croatia I think. I like Croats +1.5 better and draw 1H.

Yeah +1,5 sounds nice. I decided for a draw, because I am not willing to risk a lot of units on Croatia here. Left side of the defense is a suspect, with Pranjic out with injury. Also centre backs are known for making stupid mistakes. Even Lovren, who had very good season with Southampton... It is important, because Brazil's wing backs play very high up front (Dani Alves, Marcelo), creating added pressure on defense. With best defenders available, I would go with few units on +1,5 line, but in this situation, I am going, with the draw option. Odds are juicy. If it hits, great. If it doesn't, I am not going to stress over 1 lost unit. Good luck!

frugalgambler · 06-12-14, 01:22 PM

GL to you too. We'll see in a couple of hours. Brazil has an insane record of winning their groups at WCs, and I have them to win their group @-400. So I am not too stressed one way or another, but given the historical trends the opening game should be tight, especially the 1H. Add to that the weather and suspect pitch quality.

Hardcoar · 06-12-14, 03:14 PM

That own-goal was almost more pathetic than Konga.

frugalgambler · 06-12-14, 05:16 PM

Croatia got f.cking robbed. But I am not too bummed out, since my Brazil to win the group looks pretty good now. And I did get 1H draw@+145. That Croatian goalie really really sucks.

Honeybadger44 · 06-12-14, 05:31 PM

Yeah, there were few questionable calls by the ref. But I think that penalty was a correct decision. Fred is very experianced, while Lovren is stupid. Things simply fell into their place. I might be wrong though.
I again think that I had a good bet. Croatia was the better team imho, and deserved the draw. And frugal, I agree. Pletikosa's reactions at all 3 goals, were pretty poor.